Crooked Pitch

Lou here again.  Matt from Fantasy Insider Online is having difficulties logging in and asked me post this for him.  Enjoy!

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Earlier in the week, I took part in a fantasy draft that involved a whole slew of heavy hitters in the industry and which will be printed in a fantasy magazine to come out in January.  I know, I know… early, right?  The 2007 season ended just under a month ago, and already (with a lot of top free agents still out on the market) we are trying to look ahead to ’08.  Nevertheless, considering that the ’07 season was still fresh in everyone’s mind, it may help to explain something that went down during the draft that I thought to be a bit out of the ordinary. 

With the 11^th pick in the 1^st Round, NL Rookie of the Year and Milwaukee 3B Ryan Braun was taken off of the board.  Please, do not get me wrong – Braun was an absolute beast this past season and posted up per game fantasy numbers very similar to those of fantasy monster Alex Rodriguez.  However, how much stock can you really put in a player with just one year of experience in the majors, let alone one year of statistical information to base your pick off of?  Solely based off of last season, there is no doubt that Braun is worthy of a 1^st Round selection, however, at such a deep position with so many exceptional AND experienced 3B options for this coming year, I would rather play the law of averages. 

Can Braun duplicate (or even come close to) his .324 BA, 34 HR and near 100 RBI in 2008?  The ball is up in the air.  Yet, this led me to take a look at the trends of past Rookie of the Year winners and how they performed in their sophomore seasons.  Most recently, we can go back only one year to see two cases in which players kept things headed in the right direction during their second years.  Both Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez and Tigers SP Justin Verlander (ROY winners from 2006) improved across the board from 2006 to 2007 – with Ramirez having an absolute monster year.  It is practically inconceivable for this year’s NL ROY, Braun, to better any of his 2007 numbers next year, however, much like Verlander, he could stay consistent and improve in some areas. 

Recently, many players (both hitters and pitchers) have either stayed consistent or done better in the following season after being crowned Rookie of the Year.  Players like Ryan Howard and Jason Bay, both who are that big-hit type player similar to Braun, have improved in their sophomore seasons.  Nevertheless, past ROY winners like Eric Hinske, Angel Berroa, and even Dontrelle Willis to an extent, show that a solid follow-up year to a stellar rookie campaign is not a lock. 

In the end, I would rather take a seasoned veteran with a few years of statistical backing which would warrant him a 1^st Round pick rather than basing that draft selection off of one outstanding season.  Would I love to have Braun on my fantasy teams in 2008?  Without a doubt.  Playing in a very suspect NL Central division, hitting in a lineup with up and coming stars like Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart, Braun definitely has the opportunity to keep the ball rolling into 2008 and beyond.  Yet, to me, a 1^st Round selection does not seem right to me, and I tend to see Braun as a solid 3^rd or 4^th Round option.  When it’s all said and done, however, consistent trends from seasoned players will help me sleep a little bit easier at night.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 16th, 2007 at 2:31 pm and is filed under Draft Strategy, Fantasy Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.