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Tom Verducci wrote a very interesting article over at SI where he speaks about seven young pitchers who are at risk of inury in 2008. How does he know?

It’s his hypothesis that any pitcher under the age of 25 who increases his innings pitched workload by 30 innings or more, is at risk of an injury the following year, or a ballooning ERA. In 2005 and 2006 he found 17 pitchers who were at risk and ten of them blew up. With those findings, I am thinking it’s best to listen to him.

In addition to his seven pitchers (Ian Kennedy, Fausto Carmona, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tom Gorzelanny, Dustin McGowan, Chad Gaudin and Yovani Gallardo), I’ve found 3 more who are at risk. The names that I have added to Mr. Verducci’s list may not be as sexy, but they are still in big league rotations (albeit at the back end of their rotations) and may or may not be on your draft lists.

• Kyle Davies | Kansas City Royals | +53.2 - Davies threw 92.1 innings in 2006 with some major league action mixed with some innings from the minor leagues. However, in 2007 he pitched 146 innings. That’s a 36% increase and could result in bad news for people who grab Davies. Although, with a 7-15 record and a 6.09 ERA, I can’t imagine he’ll make too many draft lists. He’s penciled in as the #4 starter in Kansas City for 2008, which is another good reason to leave him alone.
• Edwin Jackson | Tampa Bay Rays | +51.2 - Jackson saw his year-to-year innings pitched go from 109.2 in 2006 to 161 in 2007. And what happened to him as he put more and more innings on his arm? He got better. His 2nd half numbers were far better than his first half as his ERA dropped almost a whole pitcher (2.75 points). But those extra innings could take a toll in ‘08. He’s avoidable in mixed leagues as the earliest he’s been taken in mock drafts is in the 16th round. His Average Draft Position is 203.72 in mixed and he’s usually the 50th starting pitcher taken in AL only leagues. Let someone else take the gamble.
• Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | +51.2 - Slowey pitched over 200 innings in 2007 which is about 25% more than he pitched in 2006. I suppose that Francisco Liriano’s arm troubles didn’t teach anyone in Twins organization a lesson about overuse. His 4-1 record and great 47:11 strikeout:walk ratio last season shows promise and upside. Let’s hope his arm can hold up. People have been gambling on Slowey in the 12th round of mixed leagues and he’s been the 48th starter off the board in AL only leagues.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 8th, 2008 at 5:55 pm and is filed under Injury Updates, Starting Pitchers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.