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Is it possible for a player to breakout in consecutive seasons? It just might be for Rockies outfielder, Brad Hawpe. In 2007, Hawpe raised his home run total by almost 25% (27 compared to 22 in ‘06) and drove in 116, which was almost 28% more than his 2006 season. What does Hawpe have left to do?
The simple answer is that he has to hit left handed pitchers. Let’s take a look at his lefty/righty splits from ‘07.
- vs. RHP - .315/.418/.585 24 HR 94 RBI 1.20 K:BB
- vs. LHP - .214/.283/.397 5HR 22RBI 4.00 K:BB
If you take a look at a few of Hawpe’s projections for 2008, it doesn’t look like he’ll take another big step.
- Bill James - .295 27 HR 105 RBI
- Marcel - .286 21HR 89 RBI
- CHONE - .276 24 HR 78 RBI
However, Brad Hawpe has worked out a ton in the off-season. He only took one week off after the World Series and has been working out six days a week at Shawn Morgan’s Cooperstown Rockies facility in Dallas. Coming into camp this spring, Hawpe looks to be in great shape and has packed on 10 extra pounds of muscle.
If Hawpe’s extra weight and extra time in the batting cages this winter don’t increase his numbers against lefty pitching, you can bet that he won’t add on to his 2007 numbers. In fact, if his lefty splits don’t increase, he may start splitting time with Ryan Spilborghs, who mashes left handed pitching.
Keep an eye on Hawpe every time he hits against a left handed pitcher this spring. If he’s still inept against southpaws, you may want to downgrade Hawpe as he might become a platoon player with Spilborghs. If he’s learned a bit this winter and shows success, you might want to think All-Star with some upside from 2007.
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