Why Good Fantasy GM’s Should Stay Away From Homer Bailey
Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Prospects, Starting Pitchers, tags: Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Hurley, Gio Gonzalez, Grant Balfour, Homer Bailey, Kevin Slowey, Matt Harrison, Pablo SandovalThank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. You can also follow Crooked Pitch on Twitter @crookedpitch Thanks for visiting!
Minnesota Twins hurler Kevin Slowey and Tampa Bay reliever Grant Balfour seem to have been able to overcome names that shouldn’t lend well to Major League pitchers. But, it looks like Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey isn’t so lucky.
Bailey has been at the top of the Reds prospect list for years now. That might not be the case any more as he had a very rough 2008 season, both in the minors and at the big league level.
In 19 minor league starts, Bailey went 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA. He gave up ten home runs in 111.1 innings and had a 2.08 (96:46) strikeout to walk ratio. In his eight starts at the Major League level, Bailey went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 36.1 innings of work and had a 1.05 (18:17) strikeout to walk ratio. Hitters bolstered their batting averages against Bailey as he registered a .378 batting average against at the big league level.
Now, the first thing most Bailey supporters will say right here is that he’s only 22-years-old. “Give the kid a break!”. While there is some legitimacy to that statement, let me tell you why, from a fantasy point of view, Bailey shouldn’t be given any more chances.
Homer Bailey just isn’t progressing as a pitcher. At 22-years-old you expect a kid to take some lumps. But, Bailey is getting worse as time goes by. Take a look at this:
- His Minor League ERA in 2007 was 3.82 in 14 starts. It was 4.77 in 2008 in 19 starts.
- Minor League hitters hit .281 against him in 2008, but only .229 in 2007.
- His MLB ERA ballooned from 5.76 in 2007 to 7.93 in 2008.
- He averaged giving up one home run per start in 2008, but only one every three starts in 2007 at the Major League level.
- And, as mentioned above, Major League hitters are hitting 121 points better against him in 2008 (.378) than they were in 2007 (.257).
When it comes to your fantasy baseball team, Homer Bailey should only be on your roster if you’re in a deep keeper league. And even in deep keeper leagues, I can rattle off many players who might be better options in 2009 who are the same age as Bailey and in similar situations (same age, not superstars yet like Longoria or Cueto, etc.) Players like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gio Gonzalez could all see better fantasy 2009’s than Homer Bailey.
Until Bailey shows that he can live up to expectations (and I supposed I should have said if instead of until), Bailey is better left to some other fantasy GM to take a chance on.
Update (10/23/2008 10:41 AM) : Reds beat writer John Fay answered a Homer Bailey question in his blog post today and stated that Bailey could be headed to the bullpen with the log jam of starting pitching talent on the Reds roster. That would surely kill Bailey’s fantasy value unless he took earned the closer’s job.
Entries (RSS)
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
Homer is way too young to give up on, but I wouldn’t count on fantasy value in 2009. 2010, maybe.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:52 am
If you can get him in for $1, I think Bailey might still be worth taking. He has a lot of talent, and guys like that can sometimes make huge strides in a short period of time. But it’s true that he hasn’t noticeably improved over the past years, may have lost some velocity, and has seemed to be somewhat prone to injury (though nothing catastrophic yet).
I think a move to the bullpen could be terrific for him. It might not be something that he does for the rest of his career, but I can see him being dominant in that role. And the Reds finally have a deep enough rotation that such a move is a plausible thing to do. It would also let him build up a record of success if they ultimately decide to put him back into the rotation, either mid-next year or sometime in subsequent years.
-j
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Homer Bailey has consistently had changes in his velocity over the last couple of years. You hear/read about him throwing 96 then when he gets to the majors he throws 90, and then the next start he might be throwing 94. Be it he is a bit injury prone and is trying to pitch through injuries, or the franchise constantly trying to change his mechanics or the pitches he throws.
I agree a move to the bullpen would be excellent for him just because he could gain confidence, and allow him to worry more about getting his pitches over for strikes instead of trying to out smart the hitters by pitching backwards. Homer Bailey’s future is going to be super dependent on if he can ever start to strike out the batters at the level he did in the lower level of the minor leagues. I feel the bullpen might be the best place for him to figure that out and make that next step.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Short Hops…
There are a few items I’ve been meaning to link over the last couple of days:
–I agree with Justin; the Reds should extend Jay Bruce. Sign him to a long-term contract now, and you will avoid getting murdered in arbitration in a couple of y…