Crooked Pitch

Once again showing that the Tampa Bay Rays organization is becoming a force to be reckoned with, the club last week sent Edwin Jackson to Detroit for Matt Joyce.

Here are Joyce’s lines from last season:

• In 56 games at Triple-A Durham - .270/.348/.550 13 doubles, 13 home runs, 2 stolen bases
• In 92 games with Detroit - .252/.339/.492 16 doubles, 12 home runs

The 24-year-old performed nicely for the Tigers last season, and should fit in nicely as the Rays every day right fielder. However, there are some concerns:

• If the Rays go out and sign a free agent outfielder (there are some big names like Burrell and Bradley left) Joyce would become the 4th outfielder, greatly reducing his fantasy value.
• Joyce only hit .227 against left handed pitching last season. None of his 12 home runs came against lefties either. If Joyce cannot improve on this split stat, he’s likely to become a situational platoon player.

Those concerns stated, Joyce has potential to produce this season and maybe even more so later on.

Friedman said Joyce “will certainly contribute” in the upcoming season - the Rays’ first as defending American League champion - but he clearly expects the bigger impact in 2010 and beyond.

“We feel like he’s got above-average power. We feel like he is an above-average defender,” Friedman said. “We think he’s got a chance to develop into a very good player, and even short of that, we feel like he can help this team for many years. The fact that he’ll be here for a minimum of six years is valuable to us and something we have to keep in mind.”

Take a wait and see approach with Joyce. You should be watching him in Spring Training to see if he shows signs of repeating, or improving on, his 47.5% fly ball rate and his 14.1% HR/F ratio. Also, if you’re in deep keeper leagues it may be time to stash Joyce on your bench and wait until 2010 to see if he becomes really production. Bill James predicts 15 home runs in right at 300 at-bats for Joyce in ‘09. If James is anywhere close to being right with that projection, and Joyce gets full-time at-bats, you’ll have yourself some nice pop in a young outfielder that you should pick up on the cheap.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008 at 9:06 am and is filed under Fantasy Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.