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Welcome back to the second installment of our fantasy baseball Q & A session, [tag]The Fantasy Five[/tag]. We’ve got 5 more questions this week and 4 baseball experts to impart wisdom on you all; that’s 2 more experts than we had for last week’s Fantasy Five. Once again, if you have questions you would like our panel of experts to answer for you, send me an e-mail.

1. When you are setting your daily lineup of hitters, does which pitcher they are facing come into play, or are the hitters’ stats the main thing you go by? Is your answer different for leagues with only weekly lineup changes?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I generally stock my bench with prospects and Roger Clemens, limiting my matchup flexibility. I pretty much go with my full 2007 projections when deciding who to start, and use matchups to make close calls. For example - start Adam Lind or Elijah Dukes tonight? I went with Dukes because he’s facing Steve Trachsel and Lind is facing Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): Typically in a weekly-change league I will put the best hitter available into my lineup. If I’m in a deep daily-change H2H league though, I like to have two players, a power guy and a BA/SB guy, that I’ll swap in and out of my UT spot depending on what stats I need. The opposing pitcher doesn’t usually come into play for me unless I’m trying to decide between two similar hitters of equal talent–then I’ll look for every advantage (opposing pitcher, ballpark, spot in lineup) I can.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): I tend to play my best guys, regardless of who they are facing. Most of the time, I play in fairly deep leagues that are at least 12 owners. Because of that, usually your starters are the best on your team and starting anyone else is not worth the risk. The only time I would look at matchups is in the event of a major slump or if I had two players that were virtually identical from a numbers standpoint.

2. In leagues where you can only change your lineup on a weekly basis, is a mid-tier pitcher who is starting twice that week better to place into your lineup than a top-tier pitcher who will only pitch once?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I’d stick with a top tier guy once. Throwing Kyle Lohse out there just because he’s going twice is a risky move. Not that I have anything against Lohse.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): Yes. A top-tier starter is still going to have to have a very good game to match the value a two-start pitcher will give you. The extra Ws and Ks you’ll get are worth more than whatever ratio help the better starter might give you. That’s assuming “mid-tier starter” means a 3.80ERA, 1.28WHIP guy, an Ian Snell/Javier Vazquez type, rather than a guy that can really hurt your ratios.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): I would always start my best pitchers with one start over a mid tier with two starts. Assuming it’s head to head, starting that non ace type pitcher could yield two losses and pretty much kill you in that area.

3. What key hitting stats can show me if a player is going to get hot or cool off soon?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I have been looking at contact and line drive rates. Those seem to be solid underlying indicators of how the guy is swinging. Walk rate is another - tons of walks usually means good things are coming.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I always watch B:KK rate and overall strikeout rate to judge whether a batter’s hitting over his head or if he’s really become a better hitter. Extra base hits are a good quick indicator as well, because there’s a lot of luck involved in hitting singles. If a player’s on a hot streak because he’s hitting more doubles and HRs, I’m more likely to believe in him. Contact rate *(AB-K)/AB* is a good dirty tool that’s been getting some attention recently–I like to use that when looking at batting average as well.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): Streaks come and go. They are very hard to predict. I tend to not try to predict them. If I had to go with some stats though, I would look at pitches per plate appearance. If a player is seeing a lot of pitches, he’s going to get something to hit eventually. If he’s pressing, he’s probably swinging early.

4. What is a good source for minor league call ups, both when they happen and projections for who’s coming up next?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): Personally, I just hit the books for call up evaluation. Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook plus Deric McKamey’s Minor League Analyst tell me all I need to know about the guy scouting-wise. Then I’ll check his PECOTA and ZiPS and add my own intuition.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I visit John Sickels’ site, minorleagueball.com, every day. The community there is a fantastic resource for anything minor league related, and won’t let a hot prospect or impending call up go by without a post. Just keeping up on who is doing well in the minors will also tell you who’s going to see the majors soon, so I like to bookmark prospects on MILB.com and follow their statistical progress. I recently wrote an article on who you can expect to make their major league debuts this year and posted about Ryan Braun’s hot start meaning he could get the call soon, so I guess you could call my site a good source too.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): Some of the best sources are bloggers. They follow the team like no one else. I would advise book marking one blogger from each team that appears to be reputable and keep an eye on their work. Another good resource is Rotoworld and the old fashioned way of hard work looking through box scores from AAA & AA.

5. With their slow start, did the Cubs waste all that off season money they dished out? Are there some hidden fantasy gems on the Cubs roster?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): Two weeks into the season, I don’t think we can say. It mostly looks bad because Soriano’s not doing much yet. There’s no reason to think he won’t slug .520 this year. 5 quality starts in 6 tries from Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis is very encouraging. Hidden fantasy gems…maybe a few but the Cubs are a well-known team. If you can pry a Zambrano or Michael Barrett away at a discount because of slow starts, go for it. Ryan Theriot is playing quite a bit and running a lot.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I didn’t like many of the Cubs’ moves this offseason, but you have to admire the effort. I’m a Mariners fan, and it’s tough to follow a team that consistently passes on top free agents because they don’t want to pay top dollar, and then ends up throwing big mid-range contracts at bad players. At least the Cubs are willing to shell out big bucks for the players they want.

As for hidden fantasy gems, I think Matt Murton could hit .300/90/20/85/5 this year, which can help a lot of fantasy teams. Felix Pie also has the tools to be a great fantasy player, but I’d like to see him improve on the base paths. His bat looks great for a kid his age. I don’t think Rich Hill can be considered a “hidden” anything after all the pre-season hype he got, so I’ll say that ***Mike Wuertz is a sleeper to close who can help your ratios while you wait.**

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): By no means did the Cubs waste money. When you consider the players that Jim Hendry brought in this year, virtually all of them have contributed. The team is going to hit and hit for power. Right now, the season is early. If you’re looking for a hidden gem, look into Ryan Theriot or Felix Pie. Both players are guys that are very close to working their way into becoming everyday starters because of their hustle and speed.

Rob G. (The Cub Reporter): I’m sure Jim Henry, Lou Piniella and all Cubs fans were hoping for a faster start by the ball club but it’s far too early to settle on a verdict on whether the Cubs offseason spending plan was a bust or not. As for fantasy gems, if you haven’t heard of Rich Hill yet, you should read more. He’s efficient with his pitches, strikes out hitters and the Cubs should be able to provide the run support for him to rack up the wins. Ryan Theriot is a Lou Piniella favorite and should eventually qualify up to five different positions (2b, 3b, LF, RF & SS) and provide a decent batting average and those coveted steals. CF prospect Felix Pie was recently called up when Alfonso Soriano went down with a hamstring injury and it’s unclear whether he’ll stick or not, but he’s a talented player with tons of potential. Ryan Dempster seems to be back to his 2005 form and if you’re in a deep league that requires a dip into middle relievers, Michael Wuertz has been racking up K’s at an astronomical rate. If Wade Miller doesn’t turn his season around quickly, Angel Guzman could step into the rotation. Once upon a time, Guzman was a highly heralded prospect who got derailed by injuries, but it appears his stuff is back and if anything should be a good source for strikeouts.

I’d like to thank our panel of baseball experts for participating in the second installment of The Fantasy Five. Here’s a little bit about them:

Tim Dierkes is one of the best known names in the fantasy baseball blogosphere. He publishes one of the most popular blogs out there; Roto Authority as well as MLB Trade Rumors. Reading his daily content will surely cause a one, maybe even two position rise in you roto league standings.

Sean Salsbery is a contributing writer for Fantasy Baseball Express and publishes his own blog, Warning Track Power. Keep an eye on Sean’s writing for superb fantasy baseball advice.

Joe Aiello is the founder of one of the more influential Chicago Cubs blogs out there, The View From The Bleachers, which has been around since 2003. He also publishes two other blogs for his VFTB Baseball Network, Future Rays and Big League Baseball Report.

Rob G. is The Cub Reporter for the impressively large Most Valuable Network. His insight into the Chicago Cubs is fantastic and should be read on a regular basis.

This entry was posted on Friday, April 20th, 2007 at 6:47 am and is filed under The Fantasy Five. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.