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I’ve got a column debuting today at Fantasy Phenoms. This week and next I’ll be compiling an All-Star team of the unluckiest players in baseball.

This week I reveal the hitters. Enjoy.

According to the Longview News-Journal, 22-year-old Rangers’ 1B Chris Davis has been called up to the majors.  Although he doesn’t have Jay Bruce’s hype, he may have a bat that’s equally capable of serious impact in the bigs.  Here’s a look at Davis’ numbers over the last two seasons:

Davis boasts more raw power than anyone in the minors, and has improved his approach (and results) as he moved up each level. I’m very excited about this kid.

In keeper leagues, now’s the time to grab Davis if he isn’t already someone else’s property.  He’ll probably struggle a bit at first, as he’s likely to have some trouble with strikeouts in the bigs, but he also tends to learn new levels very quickly after a short adjustment period.  Unfortunately, that means it’s not that likely he’ll set the league on fire right away while Hank Blalock is recovering these next few weeks.  That might mean a trip back to AAA when Blalock returns.  That said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Texas benches or trades Blalock or Catalanotto sometime soon in order to open up this C/DH/1B logjam they’ve got with Davis, Max Ramirez, Salty, and Smoak all looking like future impact players.

For fun I’ve compiled a projection (based on his BB:K and ball-in-play numbers) for what I think Davis can do if he plays full-time the rest of the year, assuming 275 ABs:
.265/.317/.513 14DB 18HR 20:70BB:K
The Runs and RBI will depend on where he’s likely to bat in the order, but he’s got the bat to drive in a lot of runs.  This projection assumes a LD% of 20%, a FB% of 43%, and a HR/F of 20%–all good numbers, but significant drops from where he’s at in the minors this year.  Also, I hear the Ballpark in Arlington is a pretty fun place for lefty sluggers to hit.

Obviously I think Davis is going to be a pretty good power hitter, and if he can improve his plate discipline the way he has throughout his minor league career, he could be a great one.  There aren’t many opportunities to move on a fantasy player with this kind of upside, so don’t be slow about picking him up.  If there’s a young 1B in the league with Prince Fielder’s upside, Chris Davis is it.

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is to go after former top prospects who have had a rough go of things early in their careers.  With the fantasy game evolving to integrate minor league rosters and dynasty/keeper league styles, the focus on youth by fantasy GMs has exploded in recent years.  As a result, the value these GMs put on “the next big thing” can be huge:  Those who have attempted to deal for Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw without giving up a top-50 player know what I’m talking about.  On the flipside, when a young stud comes up and bombs, it’s amazing how quickly owners will abandon him to move on to the next shiny prospect.

Let’s take a look at some former top-prospect pitchers and their numbers from 2008.  Some of these guys you’ll still be able to acquire at a good value, thanks to their past struggles.  Others may provide an opportunity to move while they are still appealing to another bargain-hungry GM.

Gavin Floyd - Since entering the league in 2004, the former BA Top-10 prospect has struggled mightily.  This year, however, his 3.19ERA and 1.10WHIP over 90.1IP are making this look like a breakout season for the 25-year-old.  If you’ve got this guy, then you’re the envy of your keeper leaguemates.  Or so you hope.

Floyd’s allowing a miniscule 12.8% LD% this year, resulting in that incredibly low BABIP.  A pitchers’ opponent LD% and BABIP are not repeatable skills, they are luck-based, primarily.  This is not sustainable.
Verdict: Cash in on Floyd before he hits the mother of all corrections.

Zack Greinke - After dropping a 3.97ERA and 1.17WHIP on the major leagues at age 21, Greinke was seen by many as a future ace.  Most of us know his backstory of mental issues by now, so suffice it to say he hasn’t come through on those projections.  After a spectacular April, he’s struggled a bit in May and June.

Looking at xFIP, it would seem Greinke’s been lucky with his 3.40ERA.  However, his control is good, and he’s striking guys out at a decent clip.   He’s also averaging over 6.6IP a start, which helps in the Win dept.  Despite the slight flyball tendencies, there’s a lot to like.
Verdict: Greinke’s not coming cheaply if you don’t have him, but I wouldn’t sell high either.

Edwin Jackson - Another guy who broke into the majors early, Edwin has struggled since his debut at 20 years old.  After suffering through years of arm problems and inconsistency, he’s looking like a league-average starter for the first time.

The one thing Edwin has going for him is a power sinker.  He’ll always keep the ball on the ground well, but there really haven’t been any signs of improvement in his numbers.  He’s missing fewer bats than ever, without much improvement in control.
Verdict: Hold.  He doesn’t have Floyd’s gaudy numbers, so he’s probably worth more to you than you’ll get in trade.  Watch the K:BB for improvement.

Andrew Miller - The #6 pick in the 2006 draft was expected to move quickly to the majors, and do well once he got there.  The first part happened, but Miller has struggled since he hit the bigs.

I’m excited about Miller as a buy-low opportunity.  He’s been inconsistent this year, but his xFIP shows that his 5.07ERA has been a lot of bad luck.  He has also been getting more ground balls lately, and is showing improvement over last year in every category–even though his WHIP and ERA make him look like a bust.
Verdict: Buy if you can.  Control may be an issue for a while, but he’s a Brandon Webb clone.

Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey’s fastball has always landed him high on prospect lists, and in the minds of fantasy GMs.  His poor control and lack of any decent secondary offerings have limited him so far.  However, there are still fans out there for what Pelfrey’s bringing.

I am not one of those fans.  Pelfrey’s groundball tendencies are encouraging, but his lack of control and K’s show that his 4.30ERA isn’t for real.  A good breaking pitch could make him an above-average starter, but there are a lot of relievers out there you could say the same thing about.
Verdict: Sell, if you’ve got an interested buyer.

Anybody I missed that you’d like to talk about?  This is an area where you can do really well with pitchers if you make some smart risks.  Next time we’ll look at how some post-hype hitters are doing, so email me if you’ve got any questions, comments, or suggestions.

News out of Seattle today is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi has been fired.  Manager John MacLaren can’t be that far behind him.  What this means to fantasy owners (aside from the M’s fans among us having a good reason to crack a beer and celebrate) is that it should mean the beginning of a youth movement in Seattle, now that Bavasi isn’t throwing every young player under the bus in an attempt to save his job.

Assuming the M’s ownership brings in a GM who is ready to build for the future (something the team hasn’t been willing to consider in the last ten years) this could mean a few interesting developments for fantasy owners:

• Jeff Clement should see time in the majors, immediately. He’s killing AAA, and could be a big surprise in the second half for fantasy owners with his Catcher eligibility. Look for him to DH primarily and get a couple starts a week behind the plate.
  Big Loser: Jose Vidro

• It’s a little up in the air what will happen until JJ Putz gets back, but Brandon Morrow is easily more valuable to the M’s as a starter than a reliever. I would expect him to get sent down to AAA to get stretched out, and then be back up in the second half to join the rotation.
  Big Winners: The M’s have liked Mark Lowe in the closer spot before, and Ryan Rowland-Smith has to be an option as well. If Morrow closes until Putz returns, look for one of these guys to take up the reigns as Putz’ backup until draft pick Josh Fields is ready.
• It wouldn’t be a surprise if Jarrod Washburn were to lose his job, whether that means a move to the bullpen or an outright release.  The M’s don’t have a lot of major-league-ready starting pitching talent in the organization (which makes giving away Cha-Seung Baekfor nothing and keeping Morrow in the ‘pen even more indefensible) but trying just about any young arm in the rotation would be better for the team in the long-run, and might even net better short-term gains than sending Washburn out there every five games.
  Big Winner:  Ryan Feierabend?

• With the team’s focus undoubtedly changing, underperforming soon-to-be free agent Richie Sexson could find himself benched or even released.  The smart move would be to move Raul Ibanez to first base full time (as his awful defense negates any offensive contributions he makes), which would open up left field for a full-time player.
  Big Winners:  Jeremy Reed (your full-time left fielder), Wlad Balentien (Right Field).  Balentien has bigger offensive upside than any young player the Mariners have in the upper minors, aside from Clement.  Giving him the rest of this season to adjust to the majors could pay huge dividends.  He’s somebody to target for ‘09 in deep keeper leagues if this happens.

In a situation I’ve been watching develop this week, it looks like Ryan Spilborghs is going to get the bulk of playing time in center field over Willy Tavares now that Matt Holliday has returned to the Colorado lineup. This will affect fantasy owners in two ways, as Tavares and his 23 steals take a huge hit, and Spilborghs becomes that elusive impact player on the waiver wire.

At 28 years old, Spilborghs is a late-bloomer who only logged 435 AB in the majors prior to this season. A .294/.381/.447 hitter in six minor league seasons, he’s also the rare player who seems to be better in the majors than he was in the minors. He’s a capable but unspectacular center fielder, and should be significantly more valuable in the lineup, and on fantasy teams, than Tavares.

After hitting .287/.337/.431 in ‘06, his rookie year, and .299/.363/.485 last season, the former fourth outfielder is batting .312/.425/.496 with a stellar 25:16 BB:K ratio in ‘08. He’s got the power and speed to be a 20/15 player in a full season, and could easily top that HR total if he can elevate the ball. In fact, the longest homerun this year (according to HitTracker) was hit at Coors by no other than Spilborghs: a 472-foot bomb to dead center field. Assuming he bats in a favorable spot in the order (and remember, he batted third with Holliday out), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a prorated .310/105/25/85/15 out of Ryan the rest of the year.  And it’s not all that unlikely he’ll do it.

If you’re in a deep league, Spilborghs is probably on someone’s roster already (if not, why are you still reading this?). However, I expect him to be an asset in nearly any league, as his terrific plate discipline, strong contact skills, and favorable lineup and home park should ensure that he consistently puts up solid numbers in Colorado. He’s even got a .951 OPS away from home this year, and a wicked playoff beard. What’s not to like? If the Rockies commit to sticking Willy Tavares in the defensive replacement/pinch runner role he was born to occupy, there could be free Bobby-Abreu-upside available to smart fantasy owners. You should be one of them.

With Adam Wainwright’s recent finger sprain, there are rumblings in St. Louis of moving reliever Kyle McClellan to the starting rotation. Wainwright’s injury doesn’t look to be very serious, and he looks to be back as soon as his DL stint is over. That said, with the Cards’ terrible rotation and McClellan’s four solid pitches and starting experience, it may be a move that’s best for the team in the long term.

Kyle is a 24-year-old former starter who suffered through injuries (including two elbow surgeries) in the minors and hasn’t started full-time since 2004. Despite that, he has a terrific starter’s profile, as he mixes in several good pitches with a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, walks very few, and is a dominant ground ball pitcher. Despite logging only 30.2 career innings in AA and jumping from there to the majors, he has been the best pitcher in the Cardinals ‘pen this season.

LaRussa says that if McClellan moves to the rotation, it will be for the long term. That makes him worth picking up in any league that’s remotely deep, if nothing else as a flyer that will help your ratios while you wait. If this does go down, he could be a Duchscherer-level sleeper.

Kyle McClellan’s Stats:

I’m in a couple of leagues that run their minor league draft after the MLB draft is finished. Here’s some thoughts for fantasy GMs in similar situations. (That’s telekinesis, Kyle!)

• Pedro Alvarez going to Pitt is good news for his value. He’s much more likely to stay at 3B now than it looked like earlier in the year when everyone thought he was going to Tampa. Of course, it’s not likely the Pirates’ lineup is going to be good anytime soon.
  
• Yonder Alonso to the Reds is a surprise pick, and it means that either he or Votto is likely to move to the outfield. Yonder (along with Alvarez) might be the most polished hitter in the draft, and should move quickly.
• I probably don’t need to say it, but Justin Smoak in Texas could be a monster. The team has to be thrilled that he dropped that far, as they’ve had some pretty good luck with switch-hitting slugger first basemen.
• I liked Jemile Weeks a lot as a guy to draft for fantasy leagues, as he’s polished, has a good bat at a thin position (2B), and can steal a lot of bases. I’m hoping that landing with the A’s won’t mean he’s going to be limited on the basepaths. Hope for an Ellsbury-esque SB% in the minors.
• Brett Wallace is an interesting choice for an NL team that has Albert Pujols playing first base. I think this pick might hurt his value in fantasy leagues, because nobody really believes he can play major league defense anywhere but 1B.
• The Brewers selected Brett Lawrie out of high school in Canada. I’m not going to talk about many high school players (I try to avoid drafting any of them in fantasy leagues unless the upside is huge) but the interesting thing is he was announced as a Catcher, which most teams think is a stretch. If the Brewers keep him there, he’s an impact bat at that position for sure.
• Josh Fields isn’t going to be much of a fantasy threat, but I wanted to take this opportunity to rip my favorite team the Mariners (I know, thanks for your sympathy) for a terrible pick. A team that needs to detonate and rebuild, and has shown their only organizational talent to be developing relief pitching, has no reason to pick a college reliever in the first round. Fields also has questionable control, and poor size and mechanics. Fantasy-wise, this is good news for Brandon Morrow owners, as it pretty much guarantees his move to the rotation. It’s where he should have been anyway, but again, it’s the Mariners.
• The Red Sox’ pick of Casey Kelly (another HS kid) is one of my favorite of the draft. He’s got a lot of athletic ability, and dropped to #30 because he has a football scholarship at Tennessee. It’d be hard for any young player to pass up guaranteed money for the best team in baseball though, and I’d keep an eye on his progress for fantasy leagues.