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Just wanted to make a short post today to highlight a guy who is becoming pretty useful in deeper leagues. Maicer Izturis got off to a rough start this year due to some bad luck on balls in play, but the skills he’s showing this season (and his SS/2B/3B eligibilty) make him a fantastic bench player in leagues where there isn’t a lot of value on the wire, especially with the glut of injuries that have struck middle infielders recently.

Let’s compare what Izturis is doing this year to a comparable middle infielder who is a starter in many leagues, Placido Polanco:

As an added bonus, Izturis has six stolen bases to Polanco’s two, and has a 78% success rate to Polanco’s 69%.

The Angels seem committed to getting Izturis playing time lately, as he’s started every game there since Howie Kendrick’s return. It’s doubtful he’ll be a 100% full-time player when Erick Aybar returns, but Maicer does have the hot hand lately, going 12 for his last 22 (and hitting .300 since May 1st) and has consistently hit in one of the top two spots in the Angels’ order. There’s not a ton of upside there, but like Polanco, it’s very likely he’ll give you a solid average and good run totals at a tough position, with the added bonuses of speed and versatility.

On Friday the Cardinals called up outfielder Joe Mather, a 25-year-old minor league slugger, and sent down Chris Duncan. It’s a surprising move, as even though Duncan wasn’t hitting for power, he wasn’t playing all that badly. That, along with the standing-room-only state of the Cards outfield, has caused most fantasy experts to deem Mather not worth your time. I wouldn’t be so quick to judge.

While Mather faces an uphill battle to win playing time, he just might be the best hitter in the St. Louis outfield picture. Like Duncan, he’s a tall, late-blooming power hitter that can play the the outfield corners and 1B. Unlike Duncan, Mather plays the outfield pretty well, makes good contact, and can even run a little.

A busted tools-prospect until last year, Mather’s 2007 numbers put him on the map:

He’s even stolen 24 of 25 bases since 2005. The contact rate and K:BB ratio approaching 1:1 are the things to like the most. There are a lot of AAAA sluggers that can hit for big power in the minors, but not many of them have the discipline and pitch recognition to make it work at the next level. Mather does.

Chances are, Mather’s going to go back to AAA and Duncan will be up before long. That said, he’s started four of five games since his call up, and the development he’s shown the last two years may represent a new skill level for the toolsy former third-round pick.

In a deep keeper league, like the 20-team dynasty leagues that are becoming increasingly popular, you have to take a chance on high-reward free agents to build a winner. That means grabbing a guy like Joe Mather when you have the chance, and moving on to the next guy if things don’t pan out.

One of my favorite strategies in deep leagues is to run the best four starters I can get out there every game, and fill in the rest with high-K middle relievers. I’d rather have a guy who gives me killer ratios for 75 innings than a mediocre starter who gives me 200 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. You’ll usually win the ratio categories with this strategy, and if you’re far enough ahead in those, you can always pick up the occasional spot starter if you need a W or some Ks.

Dominant middle relievers can be had on the wire every year if you know what to look for. Last year Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Rafael Betancourt could be picked up for free in nearly every league, and were three of the better fantasy pitchers in the game. Yahoo ranked Betancourt as the 19th(!) most valuable pitcher in ‘07, Bell the 24th, and Marmol the 39th. I grabbed both Betancourt and Marmol off the wire during the season in 20-team dynasty leagues. I missed my chance on Bell. With relievers, the stats to look at are BB:K (command), K/9 (dominance), and possibly GB% (HR prevention). ERA and hits allowed are too volatile in the small amount of innings a reliever pitches to pay too much attention to. BIP numbers, (like GB%, FB%, LD%) are pretty worthless until there’s a decent sample to look at as well.

Everyone’s seen the starts by guys like Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla, and Hong-Chih Kuo in our leagues this season, so let’s look at four guys you should still be able to find on your waiver wire:

Jared Burton: Burton made a bit of a splash last year with a BABIP-assisted 2.51 ERA in 43 IP, most after the All-Star break. This year, he’s doing it for real, with drastically improved control and K-rate. Last year Reds manager Pete Mackanin wanted to give Burton an audition at closer when David Weathers needed a rest, but who knows what the situation is now with Dusty and Frankie Cordero in the mix.
2008 Stats: 27.2IP 30H 10ER 8BB 29K (more…)

For my first post here at Crooked PItch, I’m going to a column that was a staple during my time at Warning Track Power. Pitchers that can keep the ball on the ground as well as pile up strikeouts are those with the best chance for consistent success, in my opinion, so finding the guys that do both things well is a great way to find possible values in fantasy leagues.

In 2007 the starters that kept a GB% above 45% and a K/G (a better K/9) above 6.8 were Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, Felix Hernandez, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Roy Oswalt, Daniel Cabrera, Jeremy Bonderman, Erik Bedard, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, Ian Snell, Boof Bonser, and CC Sabathia. That list in ‘06 consisted of names like Webb, Felix, Carpenter, Pettitte, Bedard, Oswalt, Bonderman, Zambrano, Bush, Smoltz, Myers, Haren, and Beckett. On its own, neither stat does a very good job weeding out poor starting pitchers. Combine the two, and you’ve got a list full of fantasy aces.

So, how does this information help us as fantasy owners? Well, if you used this criteria to evaluate starting pitchers last year, you would’ve been able to buy low on McGowan, who I highlighted in June when his ERA was in the high 5’s. Let’s take a look around the league using this criteria to see who might be the next high-GB%/high-K sleeper to make a leap this year.

Almost two months in, and it’s still a pretty long list. Control is mostly what separates the studs from the so-so on this list, but it’s pretty interesting that the only guys without a FIP ERA under 4.00 are Brett Myers and Johan Santana, two guys who have had terrible luck with HR/F (21.1% and 18.5%, respectively), something FIP doesn’t account for.

There aren’t a lot of unknowns on the list right now, but I bolded the guys I found most interesting, especially in deep leagues. Jimenez is a Daniel Cabrera clone, and like Cabrera has ace potential if he can cut the walks down. That’s the type of guy who can pay off big in a dynasty league. Jurrjens and Eveland are showing that their early success isn’t a fluke, though I think both are guys with high 3’s ERAs in their futures. That said, neither is likely to be a value at this point. Dempster and Marcum are showing pretty strong profiles as unestablished starters, and I’d suggest going aggressively after Marcum with his peripherals.

Danks is the guy I find most interesting here, as he’s gone from a flyball pitcher to a fairly extreme groundballer, and has maintained it to the point where it looks like a new skill. In that home park, it’s the best change he could have made. I’d be interested in seeing whether he started throwing a new pitch, or is making an effort to keep the ball down. In any case, if he maintains that 50% GB%, he’s a top 50 pitcher. That plus a tick up in strikeout rate (not unlikely with his stuff and pedrigree) could make him a fantasy stud.

Also: Volquez is amazing, it’s a good time to buy on Brett Myers, and Billingsley’s not all that different from The Jessica Alba of Fantasy, Tim Lincecum. Mmmmmm, that’s some good post-hype sleeper.