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Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn pitched seven strong innings last night giving up only one earned run and six hits. He still took the loss as Mariners’ hitters failed to score him any runs and only managed two hits. Washburn hasn’t won a game since April 21st and his last two starts have been successful in the fact that he’s pitched 13 innings and only given up one run. But the lack of run support is killing him. Even though Washburn’s season ERA is 3.22 he’s not a great fantasy option. He’s going to get knocked around at times and when he’s on, his team just isn’t scoring runs.
2. Ouch. J.J. Putz gave up four hits and three earned runs last night without recording an out. Over his last two appearances he’s given up five earned runs in 0.1 innings of work. If he’s reverted back to the reliever who lost his job in Seattle, the Mets may look for other 8th inning options.
3. He’s only owned in 7% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues but he’s batting .304 on the season and over the last month he’s .359/.427/.511 with two home runs and 15 RBI. His name is Andy LaRoche, and you might consider taking a look at him in your fantasy league.

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Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. If this is news to you, you need to climb out from under that rock and start paying attention. Baltimore Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is set to make his major league debut tomorrow night. The 23-year-old catcher is batting .305/.387/.504 with five home runs in his second year as a professional. Combining last years numbers with 2009, Wieters has accumulated 578 pro at-bats and is hitting .342 with 32 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s already owned in 69% of Yahoo! leagues without a big league at-bat. That number will skyrocket this weekend.
2. Jake Fox was called up this week and got a base hit in his first big league at-bat this season. Before his call up by the Cubs he was batting .423 with 17 home runs in 149 at-bats. Wow! He’s likely not to get a huge amount of playing time in Chicago, but if he does,and continues with those Triple-A numbers in the bigs, watch out.

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There are some situations in fantasy baseball that just have disaster written all over them. Below are three positional battles and playing time configurations that could bring a summer of heartbreak.

Nationals Bullpen

The Nationals’ bullpen is the biggest embarrassment in Washington since Watergate. How bad is it? The Nationals have blown 13 of 19 save opportunities this year. Kip Wells, who began the season in the minors, has a strong chance to emerge as the top reliever for the team. The main culprits have been Joel Beimel who regained the closers role after coming off the disabled list and promptly allowed 5 ER’s in 4 IP and Joel Hanrahan who blew three of his first five save opportunities as the teams closer. The only saving grace is that the Nationals’ offense is not as bad as in years past. The Nat’s are currently 3rd in the National League at 5.92 Runs per game. With a little help from the other pitchers, whoever emerges as the closer could get some save opportunities.

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I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

Today’s pitch count is 8.

1. When the Giants signed Jesus Guzman away from the A’s, they guaranteed him an invitation to spring training. In 415 minor league at-bats last season, Guzman batted .349/.404/.545 with 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He tore up the Venezuelan League recently and if he continues tearing it up this spring the Giants will need to look at getting him some big league at-bats. As a 3B/SS he might not take too much playing time from Pedro Sandoval, who also tore up the Venezuelan League (see above link), and the mix at shortstop got even more jumbled with the addition of Edgar Renteria. There are many questions left to be answered on the left side of the Giants infield.
2. I can’t wait to see Mark Prior climbing draft boards now that the Padres have signed him to a minor league deal. How many times over the next few months are we going to read, “If Prior is healthy…”? His average draft position is sure to be on the rise, but if you’re crazy enough to draft him you deserve the angst he’ll cause you by May. Prior is best left to the waiver wire until he make a few starts at the big league level. He just isn’t a draftable commodity.
3. As someone who just drafted Alex Gordon and Billy Butler this graph showing how probably Royals hitters are to hit a certain number of home runs in 2009 is a must read. To end the suspense… Butler’s chance of hitting 20 dingers is 15.4% and Gordon’s is 35%. There are other hitters in this study, so go check it out.
4. Scott Kazmir has put on 20 pounds in the off-season, but in a good way. The extra weight is due to hitting the gym.
5. The Dodgers are expected to cut Andruw Jones today. He’s been seen around the ATL quite a bit lately. Is he the answer to Braves need for a left fiedler?
6. You can add Miguel Montero to the list of catchers the Red Sox are interested in obtaining. Montero has pretty good pop, but has yet to show he can hit for any kind of average. And he’d probably platoon with Bard anyway, so this might not vault his fantasy value as much as you’d think.
7. One of the hottest sleeper candidates last season at the pitcher position was Ian Snell. That didn’t quite work out. His name is popping up again this off-season. Pat Lackey shares with us why that is.
8. Fantasy Ball Junkie has an interesting post about the five most fantasy significant transactions so far this off-season.

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.