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Today’s pitch count is 10.

1. For the second straight time Rich Harden walked more hitters then he struck out Wednesday night. In those two games he’s given up nine earned runs in 10.1 innings. In related news, Harden hasn’t won a game sine May 12th.
2. David Ortiz hit another home run on Wednesday night. He has three over his last seven games and is batting .363 over that same time period.
3. The Phillies bullpen screwed Joe Blanton big time on Wednesday.  Blanton struck out ten and walked two over seven innings and only gave up two earned runs. On the other hand J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park combined to give up five earned runs in the final two innings. Blanton has pitched well as of late. Over his last seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 44 strikeouts with ten walks.

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I received an e-mail from Gary asking about tips for exposure and linking to his new fantasy baseball blog. I told him I was happy to let him show off his chops right here at Crooked Pitch. He did just that, and with a topic that is near and dear to my heart. When you’re done reading this, check out his blog at Gary’s Fantasy Baseball Info.

As we all very well know, relief pitching is a vital aspect of any winning fantasy baseball squad.  Closers are often scarce, and with the exception of a few key players, not always very reliable.  However, there is a solution to this ongoing problem, and that solution is MIDDLE RELIEF!

In this article, I will review some middle relievers who are achieving higher point totals than their closing counterparts, as well as some closers who have not been pulling their proverbial weight.  The middle relievers I will discuss have been putting up well above average numbers so far, yet they are not owned in the majority of fantasy leagues.  Before analyzing why these players would be valuable on any fantasy team, we must first discuss why they are still available in the first place.

I have noticed that many fantasy players tackle the subject of relief pitching with the idea that they should get as many saves as possible, while having the least amount of blown saves.  Why this is obviously true, there is a lot more going on than that when it comes to relief pitching.  What many players fail to notice is that a top notch middle reliever who throws a lot of innings, with a good K/BB ratio, is very capable of putting up just as many points as a mid-level closer.  Some may scoff at the concept of a “top notch middle reliever,” however, in an age when starting pitchers depart after 5 innings; this is a concept that surely exists. 

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Today’s pitch count is 15.

1. Closer by committee situations are never good in terms of fantasy baseball. That’s not stopping Tampa Bay from utilizing the strategy while Troy Percival is injured. Last night J.P. Howell got his second save of the year and R.J. Anderson wrote a post yesterday stating that Howell has some pretty exciting numbers. Better numbers in some regards then Papelbon and Rivera, to name a few.
2. You don’t see this very often. Both pitchers in last night’s Cincinnati versus St. Louis game pitched a complete game. Aaron Harang took the loss giving up three earned and striking out four. Chris Carpenter won his fourth game and has an ERA of 0.71 in six starts this season. He’s struck out 31 batters in 38 innings of work and only walked five.
3. David Wright stole his 13th base yesterday and is looking like he’s going wild on the base paths like he did in 2007 when he swiped 34. Unfortunately, he’s only jacked three home runs in the Mets’ new Grand Canyon like ballpark. Wright’s HR/F ratio of 5.8% is miserably low and show rise bringing his home run total up soon. But don’t look for him to approach 30 homers this season. With a hit rate of 44.4% I’m not even sure that his .326 batting average is safe. When his hit rate normalizes back towards his normal 34.7% we might see a huge drop in his average. Consider yourself warned.
4. Andrew McCutchen had a nice major league debut yesterday. He went 2-for-4 scoring three times and stealing a base. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues right now but that number is sure to rise shortly. He’s NL-only worthy right now and you may consider taking a mixed-league flier on him too, especially in keeper leagues.

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We just looked at the hitters, now it’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint; the pitcher edition. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | +50.6% - The Reds are asking the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, but talks are stalling as the Yanks want Homer Bailey in return. This is causing a frenzy of mock draft participants grabbing Bailey, just in case this trade comes to fruition. Bailey’s ADP has risen in the last week from 412.57 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Jason Isringhausen | Free Agent | +21.9% - Isringhausen is looking into signing with four teams. At each destination he’d have an opportunity to close. Are people desperate enough to draft a relief pitcher who isn’t currently on a team and who doesn’t have a closer job 100% locked up? Apparently the answer is, “Yes.”. Isringhausen’s ADP has risen from 339.98 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
3. Barry Zito | San Francisco Giants | +19.3% - Zito is living proof of the old baseball addage, “you can be a bad left-handed pitcher and still pitch it in the big leagues”. Seriously guys??? Zito was 10-17 last season with a 5.15 ERA and led the majors in walk rate. Why has he risen in the last week from a 23rd round ADP of 257.47 to an 18th round ADP of 215.74? Zito should be undrafted in mixed-leagues until he can assure you he won’t start the season 0-8 again. And by assure, I mean pitch his ass off!
4. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.4% - Fuentes made last weeks list at the #2 spot. This week he’s still climbing. People are really starting to dig on Fuentes in the closer role in LA. He moved from the 15th round (172.67 ADP) to the 12th round (141.72 ADP).
5. John Lannan | Washington Nationals | +17.8% - Lannan, the Nationals ace, is starting to get some love from the mock draft world. He’s up into the 23rd round at 272.89 ADP from 321.57.

Other notables: Fernando Rodney (+17.0%), Masahide Kobayashi (+15.8%), Pedro Martinez (+14.6%), Manny Delcarmen (+13.3%), Todd Wellemeyer (+11.3%), Jeff Samardzija (+10.5%), and Tommy Hanson (+10.1%).

I just listed the top five hitters by rising ADP’s last week, now let’s move on the the pitchers.

1. Edwin Jackson | Detroit Tigers | +35.7 - I guess the Tigers aren’t the only folks that think that Jackson’s 24% decrease in ERA last season makes him a real deal sleeper. Mock drafters took Jackson in the 23rd round last week (260.57 ADP) instead of at an ADP of 353.63.
2. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.9% - With the move to Los Angeles Fuentes is moving into top 15 closer status at Mock Draft Central. He was a 15th round pick (174.56 ADP) last week but now is a 13th round pick at 146.77.
3. Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates | +17.6% - Snell was supposed to be a high strikeout sleeper in ‘08, but his strikeout total dropped by 24% and his ERA ballooned. He says he’s working out, eating right and feeling better, and apparently drafters are believing him. I’m not ready to drink the Snell rebound Kool-Aid, yet. He’s being taken at pick #263.67 (23rd round) now instead of #310.20 last week.
4. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves | +15.2% - Soriano is hurt and unsure of an opening day return. Not to mention he’s #2 on the bullpen depth chart to Mike Gonzalez. But he’s climbing the charts at MDC; up from 252.30 (21st round) to 219.05(19th round).
5. Chad Cordero | Free Agent | +7.0% - Lot’s of rumors about Cordero and where he’ll land. But the biggest question is can he return and be effective from shoulder surgery. He’s up from 269.87 (23rd round) to 252.30 (21st round) as some of you believe the answer is yes.

I got a chance recently to catch up with Geoff Young via e-mail, something that  neglected to do for far too long. There aren’t too many baseball bloggers out there with as much pull as Geoff has. He blogs about the San Diego Padres at Ducksnorts, and also writes over at Baseball Digest Daily. Geoff also writes a book every year offering “unparalleled coverage of the San Diego Padres”, it’s called Ducksnorts Baseball Annual.

Please check out Geoff’s awesome Padres coverage at any of the places listed above or follow him on twitter at @ducksnorts.

1. Who helped themselves the most with their Fall & Winter League play? Was it Eliezer Alfonso in the Venezuelan League?

Alfonso’s performance probably helped get him signed. Outfielder Mike Baxter put up terrific numbers in the AFL and could eventually surface as a reserve outfielder, although perhaps not this year.

2. With Khalil Greene out at shortstop what do the Padres plan to do at that position?

If the season started today, Luis Rodriguez, who filled in for Greene after his injury last year, would see a lot of time there. Internally, Sean Kazmar is another option, although he doesn’t have much of a bat. I’ve also heard that the Pads are interested in David Eckstein and Omar Vizquel. Whatever they end up doing, it won’t be real exciting.

3. What’s going on with Jake Peavy?

Right now — and the situation remains fluid — it looks like he’ll be the Padres Opening Day starter. A sale of the team to Jeff Moorad, assuming it goes through, should help stabilize things and hopefully keep Peavy here for a while.

4. What’s Chase Headley have in store for the Padres and fantasy owners in 2009?

I would expect modest improvements from him this year. Maybe .260-.270 with 20-25 homers.

5. Who’s taking over at closer for the Padres? Will they be there as long as Hoffman was?

I’d guess that Heath Bell gets first crack. He was dominant in 2007, but slipped last year, particularly in the second half. Bell won’t be there as long as Hoffman was because no closer holds that role for one team as long as he did. Well, except Mariano Rivera, but he and Hoffman are unique in that regard.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.