Archive for the “Draft Lists” Category
Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, tags: Adam Wainwright, Alex Gordon, Chien-Ming Wang, Denard Span, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Cordero, James Loney, Jonathan Broxton, Nick Swisher, Pat Burrell, Scott Baker, Shin-Soo Chin
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Thanks for visiting! Now that it’s round thirteen, you’re going to start seeing owners fill out teams needs and start really jumping on positional runs. Position scarcity may also start driving the decisions some of these guys make.
Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10, round 11 and round 12.
- Round 13 : Pick 1(145) - @crookedpitch - Pat Burrell - To grab a 30+ home run hitter at this stage in the draft seems very good to me. He fits nicely into my power laden lineup. I’m glad that our league is set up roto-style versus head-to-head as Burrell’s swings from hot to cold could derail a H2H team. But, in roto, 30 homers is 30 homers. I couldn’t care less if they al come in one month.
- Round 13 : Pick 2(146) - @Angels2717 - Edwin Encarnacion - In this draft, I waited awhile to take a 3B and when your this deeo into a draft, its hard to get a good one. I believe Encarnacion has the ability to post some solid stats for a thirteen-rounder; he’s streaky but when he’s on, he’s good. Hopefully this pick won’t be as bad as it looks so far.
- Round 13 : Pick 3(147) - @TheRoundtable - Chien-Ming Wang - One of the forgotten souls because of his injury last year. Wang didn’t forget how to pitch, he just couldn’t help the Yankees out at all. He won 19 games in 2006 and 2007. I’m betting he’s back and much closer to that this season than he is anything else. Given where we are in the draft, I like the potential for grabbing a Cy Young-candidate this late in the game.
- Round 13 : Pick 4(148) - @fakebaseball - Alex Gordon - In need of a third baseman and with few choices left, I took Alex Gordon in the 13th round. I probably reached a round early, but at this point in the draft, I’d rather go with upside potential than confirmed mediocrity. Sure, Gordon hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still young, and made incremental improvements last year that gives hope he’ll continue to develop. My tempered expectations are for .270/22 HR/12 SB, but as we’ve seen before with “post-hype” young players, there’s the possibility for more.
- Round 13 : Pick 5(149) - @jefeboy - Scott Baker - A sleeper SP, to some extent I guess. He was very good in 2008 and could improve in 2009. Another upside pick.
- Round 13 : Pick 6(150) - @xxldaddyo - James Loney - I had my eye on Alex Gordon to fill one of my CI spots and was hopeful that I would be able to snag him in this round, but @fakebaseball foiled those plans for me just two picks before me. I knew that I needed to snag a Corner position here and so I went with James Loney at pick 150. Not a prodigious power hitter (figure 15HRs to be safe), he does hit for average and I think will hit .300 in 2009. He is only 24 years old and now has two solid years of Major League experience under his belt. Plus I’ve decided to petition the powers that be at Dodger Stadium to ply JD Southers “When youre only lone(l)y” if James goes into any prolonged slumps this year:
When the world is ready to fall on your little shoulders
And when you’re feeling lonely and small, you need somebody there to hold you
You can call out my name when you’re only Lone(l)y
Now don’t you ever be ashamed when you’re only Lone(l)y
- Round 13 : Pick 7(151) - @tommystv - Nick Swisher - Not sure what happened to him last year. I could see a power dropoff as steroids/hgh or lack there of deal. (everyone in Oakland past and present juice right?) But for this guy not to hit for a better AVG was a bit mind boggling. I think he was pressing and that he bounces back solid in ‘09. 1B/OF eligibility is always nice.
- Round 13 : Pick 8(152) - @sporer - Jonathan Broxton - I’m usually anti-saves or at least I don’t start speculating on them until much later, but when Broxton was there in the 13th, I went for it. With Saito completely out of the picture, it’s Broxton’s job as long as he’s successful and his skills thus far suggest that could be quite a while! He can be wild at times (3.5 walks per nine last year), but he has overpowering stuff that will win out in the long run (10.9 and 11.5 strikeouts per nine the past two seasons). He is ready to become an elite game-ender.
- Round 13 : Pick 9(153) - @therotofeed - Denard Span - At the time, I thought this was a cheap and somewhat painless way to add speed and runs without adding Willy Taveras. Looking back, I think I could have waited, but SBs were flying off the board by this point.
- Round 13 : Pick 10(154) - @dowdyism - Adam Wainwright - I almost never target specific players heading into a draft, but Wainwright was one I was keeping my eyes on in the right position. His injury last year cut into his innings, but I think he will be on track for career numbers in 2009. Not an elite strikeout guy, but a solid contributor in the other categories.
- Round 13 : Pick 11(155) - @jasoncollette - Shin-Soo Chin - This guy had a terrific close of the season and has the skills to go 20/20/.290 in 2009.
- Round 13 : Pick 12(156) - @seniorcircuit - Francisco Cordero - I took Cordero as my first closer as he was one of the last remaining “stable” closers on the board. But as I have owned him in the past, he makes me nervous every time he gets handed the ball. Especially pitching at Great American Ballpark, there is no telling how his year could go. Projecting him at 33 S/80 Ks/3.20 ERA/1.33 WHIP.
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Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, tags: A.J. Burnett, Adrian Beltre, B.J. Ryan, David Price, Javier Vazquez, Kerry Wood, Lastings Milledge, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Pablo Sandoval, Ricky Nolasco, Ryan Dempster
It’s round twelve. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10 and round 11.
- Round 12 : Pick 1(133) - @seniorcircuit - A.J. Burnett - This started my own run on pitchers pairing Burnett with Gallardo in back to back picks. It seems I have drafted the New York Yankees big three signings, not really on purpose, it just happened that way. I see nothing wrong with Burnett in this spot with a great offense behind him I predict a 14 W/180 Ks/3.97 ERA/1.29 WHIP.
- Round 12 : Pick 2(134) - @jasoncollette - Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is someone I start looking at in the low teens because he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup. Depending on your in-season eligibility, he’ll qualify at catcher at some point in the season making him even more valuable - say a Ryan Doumit lite for 2009? He is still way too impatient at the plate and led the team in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone but it is not like there is anyone else around on the depth chart so he will have a very long leash from management.
- Round 12 : Pick 3(135) - @dowdyism - Ryan Dempster - Back from the depths last year, Dempster was a workhorse for the Cubs, throwing over 200 innings, and notching nearly as many strikeouts. The 2.96 ERA most likely isn’t repeatable, but his all around numbers make him a solid addition to my staff.
- Round 12: Pick 4(136) - @therotofeed - Adrian Beltre - Again, probably a little earlier than I need to go, but I like his consistency. Beltre gets you 25/85/270 every year. Except of course, in 2004, which was the last time his contract was up, when he basically doubled his normal production through either economic inspiration or magical potion. Hmm. Guess whose contract is up at the end of this year? And guess who is still only 29 years old? Still got some of that potion?
- Round 12 : Pick 5(137) - @sporer - Lastings Milledge - Is it obvious that I like power-speed in my outfield? Milledge joins Kemp, Granderson and Young for now. His totals were nearly similar in each half, but it was the 81 fewer at-bats and 54 more batting average points that made it look so good. Milledge is another youngster with room to improve and I see another step forward in 2009.
- Round 12 : Pick 6(138) - @tommystv - David Price - I haven’t reached on any youth with uncertainty yet, so here I go. Starter or Reliever I’m down. I’m assuming he’ll be starting this year, but you never know we these things. Great talent regardless.
- Round 12 : Pick 7(139) - @xxldaddyo - Kerry Wood - Time to close out the Closer situation by picking up Kerry Wood here in the 12th Round. Wood was relatively healthy in 2008 (save for a three week blister ailment) and posted a 34 Saves for the Cubs. He’s moved from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and will have plenty of save opps for the Indians.
- Round 12 : Pick 8(140) - @jefeboy - Matt Cain - Waited a long time to take a second SP after taking my ace very early. The wins are a toss-up, but he showed lots of improvement in 2008 and I hope he keeps it up. He’s young, so who knows?
- Round 12 : Pick 9(141) - @fakebaseball - Javier Vazquez -Since I’m at the point where I’d like to start adding more pitchers to my roster, I chose Javier Vazquez, who in my mind is the best-available pitcher, and worthy of a 12th-round pick. For ‘09, I’m expecting 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9, which are undoubtedly very solid numbers from my #3 starter. I think he’ll find pitching in the NL more to his liking than pitching in the AL (where his home field was a bandbox, and where he regularly faced DHs).
- Round 12 : Pick 10(142) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Ryan - In the middle rounds, I look to build my pitching staff, and adding Ryan here gives me two solid closers and has me confident that I won’t have to be looking for one the rest of the way. The saves I have now I can live with. Ryan will get all the opportunities and it’s a full season away from the surgery that knocked him out. He should be back to where he was prior to the injury now.
- Round 12 : Pick 11(143) - @Angels2717 - Matt Garza - Matt Garza showed in the last half of the season and plaoffs that he can pitch at a high level and get some wins. He’s young and fresh and could have a breaout year this year. He might not pick up all of those K’s, but you can’t expect that kind of pitcher in the 12th round. What he will do is have a fairly low ERA and 14+ wins (hopefully).
- Round 12 : Pick 12(144) - @crookedpitch - Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco had a huge second half where he lowered his ERA almost a full point and struck out more than a batter per inning. I’m hoping that he continues on this trend in ‘09. I am worried a bit about the workload his arm undertook in ‘08. I’m willing to take this medium risk / high reward gamble in the 12th round.
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Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, tags: Brian Fuentes, Chris Young, Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain, Jorge Cantu, Justin Verlander, Milton Bradley, Placido Polanco, Xavier Nady, Yovani Gallardo, Zach Greinke
It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.
- Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
- Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
- Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
- Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
- Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
- Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
- Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
- Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
- Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
- Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
- Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
- Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.
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Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, Outfielders, tags: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Josh Hamilton, Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun
It’s time to begin the ranking of outfielders for the 2009 season. Today, let’s look at the top ten.
- Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians - Dude became a 30/30 guy last season after three seasons of posting 20/20 numbers. And get this, he’s only 26-years old. Triple digit runs scored and the possibility of approaching triple digit RBI make it easy to forget that Sizemore doesn’t have the best batting average.
- Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers - Anyone who passed on Braun before the ‘08 season worried about a sophomore slump came away disappointed. He scored more runs, hit more home runs and increased his RBI output. Even without third base eligibilty any more, he’s still one of the picks of the litter.
- Carlos Beltran | New York Mets - At 31-years old people keep telling me that Delgado’s value should plummet soon. It hasn’t happened. He’s a 20/20 guy with triple digit RBI and run totals and nothing less should be expected in ‘09.
- Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - Maybe in the ‘09 All-Star game Hamilton won’t use up all his second half home runs in the derby. Just about 2/3 of his homers came in the first half in ‘08. He posted triple digit RBI and almost hit triple digits in runs scored. His nine stolen bases are gravy. More power could show up in ‘09.
- Manny Ramirez | Free Agent - What Manny did in the seconld half was sick last year. He can’t keep that pace up for an entire season, but a batting average above .300 with 25+ home runs and triple digit RBI and run totals should be the new definition of “Manny being Manny”.
- Carlos Lee | Houston Astros - Lee lost close to 200 at-bats due to a shattered pinky in ‘08. He still hit 28 home runs and drove in 100. With the pinky healed expect Lee to easily lock down a line something like .300/30/100/100/10.
- Alfonso Soriano | Chicago Cubs - Unfortunately, Soriano has been trending negatively in his playing time due to injuries. If he can solve that problem in ‘09 he could get back to his studly 30/30 like numbers.
- Jason Bay | Boston Red Sox - Bay’s 2008 performance went a long way in showing us that his poor showing in 2007 was an outlier. Give him a full season hitting in that stacked Red Sox lineup and you’ll see better things in ‘09 then you saw in ‘08.
- Matt Holliday | Oakland Athletics - The new team name on his uniform is the reason why Holliday is in the bottom half of this top ten list and not near the top. The move to Oakland isn’t going to turn him into a Louse, but his offensive output can’t match his days in Colorado, can it?
- Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox - A wrist injury kept Quentin from reaching 40 home runs last season. In 480 at-bats he still drove in 100 and scored 96 runs. In ‘09 watch for Quentin to finish the breakout he started in 2008.
6 Comments »
Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, Starting Pitchers, tags: Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, James Shields, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum
Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.
Today, let’s look at the top ten:
- Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
- Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
- C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
- Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
- Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
- Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
- Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
- Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
- Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
- James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.
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Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, Third Basemen, tags: Adrian Beltre, Alex Gordon, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Bill Hall, Brandon Inge, Casey Blake, Chipper Jones, Chone Figgins, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, Eric Chavez, Evan Longoria, Garrett Atkins, Josh Fields, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark DeRosa, Mark Reynolds, Melvin Mora, Michael Young, Mike Lowell, Pablo Sandoval, Pedro Feliz, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus
For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.
Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.
Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:
- David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
- Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
- Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
- Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
- Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
- Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
- Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
- Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%). That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
- Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
- Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
- Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
- Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
- Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
- Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
- Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
- Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
- Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
- Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
- Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
- Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
- Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
- Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
- Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
- Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
- Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
- Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.
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Posted by: Knox Bardeen in Draft Lists, Shortstops, tags: Adam Everett, Alexei Ramirez, Bobby Crosby, Cesar Izturis, Cristian Guzman, Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Jack Wilson, Jason Bartlett, Jed Lowrie, Jhonny Peralta, Jimmy Rollins, John McDonald, Jose Reyes, Khalil Greene, Luis Rodriguez, Michael Young, Miguel Tejada, Mike Aviles, Rafael Furcal, Ryan Theriot, Stephen Drew, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Yuniesky Betancourt
There are a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.
Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:
- Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
- Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
- Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
- Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
- Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
- Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
- Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
- Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
- J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
- Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
- Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
- Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
- Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
- Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
- Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
- Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
- Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
- Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
- Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
- Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
- Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
- Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
- Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
- Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
- Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
- John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
- Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.
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