Crooked Pitch

Today’s guest post comes from Mark Hinton who is a fantasy baseball addict and long suffering Cincinnati Reds fan.  When not scouring the waiver wire for players to turn his fantasy league fortunes around, Mark enjoys punishing his body with drink and heart-stopping foods.  Mark can be reached at mhinton_us[at]yahoo[dot]com.

Every year I do it. I remind myself not to do it.  It’s like a diet ….at first it’s easy, then a big chocolate cheesecake comes along and it all falls apart.  Of course I’m referring to drafting too heavily from your favorite teams.

My favorite team is the Cincinnati Reds.  Yes, I know, right there is reason enough to question my intelligence….let alone my ability to formulate a successful fantasy draft.  Last year my draft was destroyed when I overpaid for I thought were the two “steals” of the draft in Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Harang.  You can guess how the rest goes.

For me the urge to do this is too great.  It’s only natural that when I get the chance to draft a player whose past exploits has provided me with euphoric joy that I pounce on him like a tiger on an injured gazelle. This is the road to disaster.  I follow my team so closely that I believe that only I know the “inside information” about my favorite players that will bring me a championship.    I often dream of the unbridled jealousy of the other owners when my “sleeper” pick of Homer Bailey will win the CY Young.

I’m afraid that I extend my hometown bias to teams located in the Midwest as a whole.  Several times during the season last year I would go to bed with my fantasy team leading the daily totals for my league.  Upon waking, only to discover I had fallen back to the bottom of the pack by morning.   At first, I blamed it on faulty calculations by computer systems running our league, But then, I noticed something…..I had no west coast players on my team.  Games with the Pirates, Cubs and Tigers were long over by the time The Dodgers, Angels, and the Giants were scoring runs.

This year is different, I drafted from the whole league…not just from my backyard.    Every player was drafted on their own merits, not just because I could watch them on the local cable broadcast.  My team is a great melting pot from all over the country.  This year I even let Jay Bruce fall to the second round.  Who say’s people can’t change?

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

Today Steve from Senior Circuit (follow him at @seniorcircuit) shares some insight into how your NL-only auction strategy might have to change because so many big named free agents are still unsigned.

With a majority of my leagues being of the National League format I find that this season has been more difficult to plan for than others.  With the economic struggles of America not only affecting myself, and also family and friends, it is also causing teams in Major League Baseball to take a wait and see approach to signing “big name, big dollar” free agents. This has caused some frustration amongst fantasy owners who do not want to spend big or draft early a player who may not even play in their league format.  As of right now the biggest names may not sign until the beginning of spring training or perhaps the middle of spring training or later.  This causes concern in that taking a risk on an unsigned player, who would greatly help your fantasy team, may leave you with no value at a certain position and you would have used a high pick or a substantial amount of your budget to get the player.

Lets jump back to 2006, when Roger Clemens decided to wait and sign with the Houston Astros in late May and began pitching for them in early June.  As I entered my main National League only fantasy league all the owners knew of the risk if they spent money on Clemens and then he had signed with the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, or New York Yankees.  Our rules stated that the player pool could only consist of players that were on a team’s official 40-man roster, or on one of their official minor league rosters, or was a free agent for them to be eligible for the auction.  So any of us who had interest in Clemens knew that whatever we spent for his services maybe in jest, as he could just as likely sign with an American League team and leave us with part of our budget spent on an empty roster spot.

I thought that it was a risk I was willing to take, even if it was for part of a season.  This was still the same Clemens who posted 13 wins, a 1.87 ERA, and 185 strikeouts in 2005, so he was especially valuable with decent starters being at a premium in NL-only leagues. There were only 3 of us who were serious about bidding on Clemens when his name was mentioned and we worried how high his price would be if each of us believed that he would definitely sign with a National League team. I ended up buying Clemens for $5 for the 2006 season, even though I expected him to go higher, no other team wanted to out bid me for a player who may not even produce for their team.  I thought that this was a steal no matter where he played and he could be a strong #2 starter for only $5.  He ended up posting 7 wins, a 2.30 ERA, and 102 strikeouts in the latter half of the 2006 season.

This illustration suggests that I would be willing to take that risk again.  But only if I see that player going far below market value or I am convinced he will sign to a team within my league format.  In National League only leagues, if Manny Ramirez is going for less than $20 you should jump on the bidding up till the $20 mark.  Getting his numbers in your lineup at such a discount may far out weigh the risk involved if he were to sign with an American League team.  It is a risk I would be willing to take in order to get a great fantasy performer at a discounted price and isn’t that the point of a draft or auction?  We all take risks in every draft or auction, picking players we feel will have a breakout season, players coming off injuries, and young players who may or may not develop fantasy value.  Using strategy, counting on some luck, and taking these types of risks is what can enable you to win in your fantasy league.

I would love to hear from more players of single league formats and get their thoughts on the topic or if they have devised league rules to deal with this issue.

It was a nice, calm, peaceful day in the twitterverse yesterday when @jasoncollette unknowingly kicked off a name calling, eye raking slap fest that had all the intensity of a sorority house pillow fight. Well, it might not have been that interesting, but when Jason said

Why is it that Jose Lopez is going later in mocks right now than Aviles, Uggla, and DeRosa? Lopez is going as a solid late rd value lately.

the battle began between @theroundtable, @fakebaseball and myself.

To make a very long story short(er), After multiple people got involved in the slug fest, the gauntlet was thrown and I was challenged to rank these mid-tier second basemen and to back up my rankings. Oh, and I also had to throw in Kelly Johnson too. So, here’s what I think about Jose Lopez, Mike Aviles, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, and Kelly Johnson.

First off, let’s take a look at their numbers from last season.

• Lopez - .297/.322/.443 17HR, 89RBI, 80R, 6SB in 644 at-bats
• Aviles - .325/.354/.480 10HR, 51RBI, 68R, 8SB in 416 at-bats
• Uggla  - .260/.360/.514 32HR, 92RBI, 97R, 5SB in 531 at-bats
• DeRosa - .285/.376/.481 21HR, 87RBI, 103R, 6SB in 505 at-bats
• Johnson - .287/.349/.446 12HR, 69RBI, 86R, 11SB in 547 at-bats

Just looking at last years numbers their rankings look something like Uggla, DeRosa, Lopez, Johnson and then Aviles.

But now, let’s take a look at some 2009 projections and their current ADP on Mock Draft Central.

• Lopez - .282/14/74/69/5 and has a current ADP of 166.31 (late 14th round)
• Aviles - .285/12/63/72/8 and has a current ADP of 152.97 (mid 13th round)
• Uggla - .257/26/83/94/5 and has a current ADP of 61.89 (early 6th round)
• DeRosa - .274/14/70/73/4 and has a current ADP of 188.04 (mid to late 16th round)
• Johnson - .280/14/64/80/9 and has a current ADP of 219.98 (early 19th round)

You can see that mock drafters think Uggla should go first, then Aviles, Lopez, DeRosa and finally Johnson. However, by just these projections I think Uggla should go first. After Uggla you’d take Johnson, Lopez, Aviles and finally DeRosa. But, I’m not stopping with last years numbers and projections. I want to delve deeper into some numbers from these guys.

I want to look at some trends for these guys. Aviles was a rookie last year so he only has that year to go off of (unless I use MiLB numbers, which I won’t). Johnson only has two consecutive years to look at, so his trend data isn’t as solid as I’d like. But, the other three guys have three solid years of data from which I’d like to look at walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run to flyball ratios.

• Lopez - His BB% improved from ‘07, but his ‘08 4.0 BB% isn’t as high as his ‘06 of 4.1%. His K%, however, is trending fantastically from 13.3% in 2006 to 12.2% in ‘07, to 10.4% last year. His HR/F ratio is also headed in the right direction. His 8.2% in ‘08 look a lot better than his 6.4% in ‘07 and his 5.7% in ‘06. I’d like to see Lopez walk a bit more, but his strikeout rate looks really good and so does his HR/F. His fly ball rate even went up after the All-Star break last season. More fly balls + an upward trending HR/F ratio = good things.
• Aviles - Had a 4.1% walk rate, a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 8.3% HR/F ratio. Other than a weird August where he hit dramatically fewer fly balls and fewer home runs, Aviles stayed pretty steady with these ratios all season. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up in ‘09.
• Uggla - He’s walking a lot more (12.7% in ‘08 versus 7.3% in ‘06), striking out a lot more (32.2% in ‘08 versus 20.1% in ‘06) and his HR/F ratio which was pretty consistent between ‘06 and ‘07 (13%) jumped a lot to 18.4% in ‘08. It may be unrealistic to think he’ll keep that HR/F ratio in the high teens, and his K% is starting to scare me.
• DeRosa - Only one of these three ratios trend in the same direction for DeRosa over the last three years. His BB% is continually rising from 7.8% in ‘06 to 12.0% in ‘08. But his K% and HR/F bounce around like a pinball. His K% went down in ‘07, but back up to 21.0% in ‘08. His HR/F ratio went down in ‘07 but back up in ‘08 to 13.7%.
• Johnson - His BB% dropped in ‘08 to 8.7% from 13.2% in ‘07. His K% also dropped from 22.5% to 20.7% and unfortunately his HR/F ratio dropped from 10.3% to 7.6%. The pop seems to have left Johnson’s b at.

In concluding this assessment, I want to add a look into their contact rates and their hit rates to get a little more info into plate discipline and any luck factors that might be in play. I’ll also mention in what round these guys should be taken. Also pay attention that from this point forward, they’ll be ranked.

1. Dan Uggla - His power potential makes him the obvious number one on this list. But, I’ve never been a big fan of his batting average. Also take  into account that he has a miserable 67.7% contact rate and was a little bit lucky with his batted balls (32.3% hit rate) and Uggla’s batting average could get worse. I think his HR/F ratio will come back down (in fact it dramatically dropped in the second half last year) which could result in a power drop off as well. Because of these fears, I wouldn’t take a chance on Uggla until the 8th round. And I might even pass him by completely in favor of the number two and three guys on this list.
2. Jose Lopez - I love the way his fly ball ratio trended upward an extra 4% in the second half last year. If he can keep that going in addition to his natural HR/F improvements from year to year you might see 20-25 home runs out of Lopez. He also has the best contact rate (89.5%) of anyone on this list and his hit rate was pretty close to normal at 31.1%. In addition to his extra power potential, Lopez has the tools to hit .300. Feel comfortable taking him in the 10th to early 12th rounds.
3. Kelly Johnson - Johnson’s power seems to be fading away, but I still like his double digit potential in both steals and home runs. He has tendancies of being very streaky, which makes him a more valuable roto hitter than a head-to-head guy. And his contact rate (79.3%) and hit rate (34.4%) don’t lend well to him approaching the .300 level at all. Johnson shouldn’t be taken until the 14-15th rounds, maybe later.
4. Mark DeRosa - This guy had a career power year at age 33 (last year). If you pay for those numbers and expect them to be around in 2009, you’re crazy. His contact rate is too low (79.0%) to make a run at .293 again and while his hit rate (32.5%) is right in line with his career average, there are way too many chances for DeRosa to bomb in ‘09. He’s not a safe pick any more and will be moving to third base in Cleveland (which will kill his value in 2010). If he’s around in the 17th round grab him as a flier, but have other options in mind if he’s not the hitter he was in ‘08.
5. Mike Aviles - What a rookie season this guy had. And those of you grabbing him in the 13th round right now are paying way too much for him. He had a hit rate of 35.9% last season, which is incredibly high. When that rate normalizes Aviles’ batting average will suffer. With a contact rate of 86.1% it won’t drop down to Uggla’ish levels, but what good are his other numbers if he brings a .285 batting average to the table? Draft Aviles in the 17th to 18th round knowing that he can’t possibly repeat his ‘08 numbers in 2009.

We’re starting double digit round numbers now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8 and round 9.

• Round 10 : Pick 1(109) - @seniorcircuit - Mark DeRosa - One of my favorite guys to target this year in the draft because of his position eligibility, according to most league rules he should be eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF. But I don’t see him increasing his power numbers this season just being a steady producer at one of your infield. He’s the type of guy who won’t be an elite option at a position but won’t hurt you in the long run. Expect 85/17/80/.280 from him in 2009.
• Round 10 : Pick 2(110) - @jasoncollette - Mike Aviles - Aviles is bound to disappoint those who are expecting more of what he delivered last year but given how thin the middle infield is, the fact he qualifies at both SS and 2B make him a bit more valuable.
• Round 10 : Pick 3(111) - @dowdyism - Jose Lopez - I missed the run on the top tier second basemen, so when some of the second grouping came off the board, I grabbed Lopez. I think many of the guys in this area are interchangeable, but I really liked Lopez’s jump in SLG% while posting a career high in AVG.
• Round 10: Pick 4(112) - @therotofeed - Mike Jacobs - I think this is the first year Jacobs hits above .280, and that he gets plenty of PT in Kansas City, which incidentally has a better team than people realize. I’m looking for 35 HR too.
• Round 10 : Pick 5(113) - @sporer - Derek Jeter - I about vomited when I made it official that I had taken two Yankees in a row, but Jeter was the right pick here. He is generally overrated to the nth degree, but he almost ended up a value pick in this league of sharks reticent to fall victim to the Yankee mystique. When you draw a ton of your value from runs and batting average, you’re no longer a glamor pick, but getting a $20ish dollar value at middle infield in the 10th round is a coup. My Jeter pick came AFTER Mike Aviles was taken… that floored me. Not that Aviles was a wrong pick, more that I was in a league with players so adept at seeing past name.
• Round 10 : Pick 6(114) - @tommystv - Edison Volquez - Amazing start and then tapered off a bit. I don’t think this is a Nomo situation he hasn’t been solved, he just tired late. Ball Park is another minus, but I think my backyard would be sufficient enough to keep that changeup within it’s confines.
• Round 10 : Pick 7(115) - @xxldaddyo - Francisco Liriano - The second year back from Tommy John surgery is when pitchers are finally healthy. Although Liriano showed some signs of life in the 2H of 08 (3.91 ERA with 6 wins in 76 IP), he’ll be ready to shine in 09.  Combined with Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, Liriano gives my team to front end Aces to provide a wicked 1-2 punch at the top of my roto rotation. And at the end of this season, Liriano will have Twinkie fans in the Metrodome simply asking, “Johan who?”
• Round 10 : Pick 8(116) - @jefeboy - Bengie Molina - Easily a top-ten catcher, if not top five, so I’m thrilled to round out a very solid IF with the Benge. I’m going to need his HRs.
• Round 10 : Pick 9(117) - @fakebaseball - Chris Iannetta - I almost always avoid first-tier catchers in drafts because they don’t provide enough offense despite the positional scarcity. In ‘09, I have as my second tier Doumit, Iannetta, B. Molina, and Napoli, with a drop-off after that. My goal is to have both catchers in a two-C league from this tier. As Doumit and Molina were already gone by my turn in the tenth, and round 10 or later is where I feel comfortable taking a tier-2 catcher, I drafted Iannetta. He’s a potentially higher-upside C who I think could even be a lower 1st tier catcher by 2010.
• Round 10 : Pick 10(118) - @TheRoundtable - Bobby Jenks - Time to finally grab a closer. Jenks was the best and most reliable of what was left on the board. If you take a look at the fact as many as 8 jobs are time shares and others could change hands, I’ll take knowing that he will be the guy at the end of games as solace.
• Round 10 : Pick 11(119) - @Angels2717 - Johnny Damon - Damon has shown that he can play at a fairly high level but hasn’t been too consistent about it. I’m looking for a solid year out of him and hopefully consistent. He’s now playing in a very stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he’ll be at the top of Tex and A-Rod.  I’m also looking for a high average season after picking my last OF in Dunn.
• Round 10 : Pick 12(120) - @crookedpitch - Felix Hernandez - King Felix… What to say here… On the bad side of the coin he pitches for a bad team which will make wins hard to come by. On the good side he’s a strike out monster, just notched his 3rd consecutive season of 190+ innings pitched, and is only 22-years-old.

It’s already February, pitchers and catchers reporting is just around the corner, football season is over… it’s time to get serious about fantasy baseball.

This Average Draft Position report is an interesting one. In January we saw some lists with big, BIG movers. Todays list can be described with one word; normalization. Over the past week at Mock Draft Central no player had a double digit (percentage wise) move in either direction of their ADP. To me this means that fantasy GM’s are calming down with their shuffling of players on their ranking lists for a while. This is typical as the lists in January needed some tweaking, but now that the tweaking is done, things should stay pretty similar until Spring Training gets going. As Spring Training progresses, the ADP charts will come alive again with rapid and dramatic risers and droppers.

Headed Up

• Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins | +7.4% - The rich get richer. Ramirez has been in the top spot for a while now. What this jump means is that more and more fantasy GM’s are agreeing that Hanley is the best selection in this draft. His ADP is 1.35, which is up from 1.45 last week.
• Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +7.2% - Utley is moving up the ADP ranks quickly as fears of his injured hip subside. He’s being taken in the early to middle second round (17.21 ADP) instead of the middle of the round (18.45 ADP) last week.
• Brandon Lyon | Detroit Tigers | +6.1% - Lyon signed with the Tigers last week and hasn’t been given the closers job, but will compete for it against Fernando Rodney in Spring Training. Lyon’s ADP rose from 290.88 to just inside a 23-round draft at 274.10.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | +5.6% - This 25-year-old just inked a new deal and is a solid last round flier for strikeouts and wins in a mixed-league. His ADP rose from 285.63 to a 23rd round 270.55.
• Chris Davis | Texas Rangers | +4.7% - Whether it’s third base or first base, fantasy GM’s don’t care. Davis belted 17 home runs in 295 at-bats last season and his sleeper status is still skyrocketing. His ADP is a 6th round 68.67, up from last weeks 71.89.
• Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | +3.8% - 27-year-old baker struck out 141 last season and won 11 games in 28 starts. He’s being taken in the 19th round (228.01 ADP) now instead of the 20th round (236.62 ADP) last week.

Other notables: Andy Pettitte (+7.5%) and Dustin Pedroia (+4.5%)

Headed Down

• Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals | -7.9% - Glaus had shoulder surgery and could miss up to three months. This has dropped him out of most mixed-league drafts (293.80 ADP), down from an ADP of 270.46.
• David Wright | New York Mets | -3.7% - Before you go crazy, this drop has nothing to do with Wrights ability as a fantasy stud. It’s simply a matter of numbers. If one elite stud risings big, other elite studs need to drop. Hanley Ramirez’ huge rise last week caused Wright to fall to an ADP of 4.34 from 4.18.
• Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | -3.4% - See David Wright above. Pujols dropped from 2.88 ADP to 2.98 ADP. This isn’t a big deal at all.
• Chris Volstad | Florida Marlins | -2.9% - Volstad is a solid late round sleeper pick. This is an interesting drop in perceived fantasy value here. He went from an ADP of 270.37 to 278.55.
• A.J. Burnett | New York Yankees | -2.6% - Is this the beginning of a lot of fantasy GM’s fearing that Burnett’s injury woes are not behind him? His ADP dropped to a 9th round 99.55 from 96.99.
• Brad Ziegler | Oakland Athletics | -1.9% - Ziegler and Devine are both in the running to become the A’s new closer. This makes it look like people are starting to think that Devine is in the drivers seat. Zieglers ADP dropped to 219.16 from 217.62 while Joey Devine has an ADP of 191.02.

Other notables: Prince Fiedler (-3.1%), Rafael Furcal (-2.6%), Ian Kinsler (-2.5%) and Matt Cain (-1.2%)

It’s been my personal belief for a while that your first round pick should be a pick that gives you a lot of bang for your buck, while also minimizing your risk. You’ve all heard the fantasy baseball addage, “you can’t win your fantasy league in the first round, but you can surely lose it”.

I posed the question on twitter yesterday about first round risk. Here are the results: