Crooked Pitch

We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

We’re into round eight now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, and round 7.

• Round 8 : Pick 1(85) - @seniorcircuit - Torii Hunter - After filling two scarce infield positions and one of the catcher spots I was looking for more 20/20 outfielders. I think Hunter will get comfortable and come close to his numbers of 2007. I think 90/23/85/20/.280 is a reasonable projection for him in 2009.
• Round 8 : Pick 2(86) - @jasoncollette - Roy Oswalt - Hopefully the Oswalt we saw from April to June is gone forever. From July 1 on last year, 10 wins, a 2.22 ERA is the Roy we all know and love. Last year’s 3.54 ERA was the highest of his entire career; quite impressive considering his home ballpark. Oswalt continues to go later than I think he should in drafts.
• Round 8 : Pick 3(87) - @dowdyism - Chad Billingsley - A low 3’s ERA and in the neighborhood of 200 strikeouts - I’ll take that for my number two starter any day of the week.  Billingsley did tack on over 50 more innings in 2008 than in 2007, but his numbers stayed consistent across the board.  The broken leg he suffered is the offseason is reportedly completely healed, so I am looking for a repeat of 2008.
• Round 8: Pick 4(88) - @therotofeed - Ervin Santana - Most people don’t know this, but his given name is also Johan Santana.  For reals. He didn’t want to get mixed up with the original Johan so he chose Ervin on the basis that he thought it sounded cool. I think another season like last year sounds cool, and that he’ll do it. He’s not yet 26 years old and he was flat out dominant in 08.
• Round 8 : Pick 5(89) - @sporer - John Lackey - A draft day value last year thanks to starting the season the shelf for six weeks, Lackey was elite upon arrival due in large part to a 91% strand rate. However, the wheels fell off in the 2nd half of the season again tied to strand rate which was merely 69%. On the whole, he remains an upper crust starting pitcher that can be counted on for 200+ innings with good ratios and enough strikeouts to remain effective and help your fantasy team’s bottom line.
• Round 8 : Pick 6(90) - @tommystv - Scott Kazmir - I don’t go pitcher early, but when I do go I go hard. Took Kazmir as best pitcher on the board. For the longest time he was a legit pitcher that just couldn’t get Ws, well the Rays win now.
• Round 8 : Pick 7(91) - @xxldaddyo - Troy Tulowitzki - After seeing the run on pitchers, we were tempted to continue the streak by taking Dice-K, but there were far more #2 pitchers still available than there were quality shortstops. Tulo will be back in 09. He hit .321 in the 2H last year and should be good for .290 / 100 R / 15+ HR.
• Round8 : Pick 8(92) - @jefeboy - Aubrey Huff -I guess most folks don’t expect him to repeat his 2008 numbers. I don’t either, but if he comes close he’ll earn this spot easily. I need some power, and while he may not get 32 again, he’s got to be good for 25+.
• Round 8 : Pick 9(93) - @fakebaseball - Jay Bruce - Since I’ve taken mostly older, steadier players (which isn’t how I usually draft, but younger players have been flying off the board in this particular draft), at the end of the 8th I went with a higher-risk upside pick in Bruce. I don’t think .275/27+ HR/10 SB is unreasonable in’09, and runs and RBIs should be good as well, hitting in the middle of the order as he’s projected. Best-case, he’ll put up Jason Bay-like numbers, which would make him a steal late in the 8th round.
• Round 8 : Pick 10(94) - @TheRoundtable - Daisuke Matsuzaka - When you select Dice-K, you need to know that your WHIP is going to take a hit. He gives you a heart attack on the mound every five days, but you can’t argue with the ultimate results. 18 wins last season and he could have had three or four more had he not missed a month. Batters don’t hit well against him, and he’s adjusted to the MLB better than anyone could have expected. If I’m only sacrificing WHIP, the other stats certainly make up for it at this point. Plus, the run on starting pitching had me thinking that Webb looked lonely.
• Round 8 : Pick 11(95) - @Angels2717 - Rich Harden - The only thing that worried me about this pick was the chance of injury. But a healthy Harden is a monster pitcher. With run support from the Cubs, if stayed healthy, he should produce some great numbers. I usually wouldn’t go for a second pitcher at this point, but there wasn’t much options and I wanted another solid pitcher.
• Round 8 : Pick 12(96) - @crookedpitch - Chone Figgins - If healthy, this guy could play in 150+ games. If he sees 150+ games he’ll steal 50+, bank on it. I am with this pick.

We’re starting to get into the thick of things when it comes to differing draft strategies and player evaluations. These next five to seven rounds are very fun to watch. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, and round 6.

• Round 7 : Pick 1(73) - @crookedpitch - Jermaine Dye - Yes, I know that Dye is 35-years-old. yes, I know that he’s likely to regress a small amount in ‘09. That being said, he’s still gonna be close to 30 home runs and havd 90+ RBI. That’s not bad in the 7th round; especially with a decent batting average and 90+ runs scored.
• Round 7 : Pick 2(74) - @Angels2717 - Adam Dunn - This is somewhat a risky pick because of his average.  It is god awful. But with some very good average guys already, I think I can take that risk to get his power. He should hit 40+ homers which will be a nice addition in this round.
• Round 7 : Pick 3(75) - @TheRoundtable - Jhonny Peralta - Want to talk about a guy that doesn’t get the respect of the other shortstops, it’s Peralta. He’s hit 20+ home runs in three of the last four years, and his average has risen each of the last three. He scored 100 runs last season, and frankly I think he has much more upside than Jeter, Young, or Tulo. You can argue I may have taken him a little high, but I think this was the right spot to make sure I add another 20+ home run guy to my lineup at a key position.
• Round 7 : Pick 4(76) - @fakebaseball - Josh Beckett - My pick of Beckett in the 7th round is another pick I didn’t want to make (I prefer drafting starters later, and growing up in New York City, the last thing I want on my team is *two* Red Sox…). However, I believe it’s critical to take the emotion out of drafting and stick to your rankings if you want to do well, and I think I got a great arm on a great team a round later than I expected him to go. For ‘09, I think an ERA of 3.50 with a 1.2 WHIP, 8.25 K/9 or better, and copious wins isn’t an outlandish projection. Haren and Beckett give me a strong start to my rotation, and while I’m digging myself a bit of a hole offensively, it’s one I hope I’ll be able to dig myself out of later in the draft.
• Round 7 : Pick 5(77) - @jefeboy - Andre Ethier - Here we are in the 7th round and I’ve yet to grab an OF, so why not start with one who has the ever-popular “upside.” Solid all-around contributor who could be more than that, if his 2nd-half breakout was legit. 25 HR.
• Round 7 : Pick 6(78) - @xxldaddyo - Jonathan Papelbon - Paps has become a groundball pitcher who doesnt walk anybody. He closes for a team thats gonna win 90 plus games so he’s a lock for 40+ saves.
• Round 7 : Pick 7(79) - @tommystv - Victor Martinez - In a two catcher league I like getting a top 5 Catcher if the timing is right. I know Victor has fallen off in the power department but he still puts the bat on the ball unlike most catchers. So if he’s healthy I got Joe Mauer two rounds later than Joe Mauer. Health is the key.
• Round 7 : Pick 8(80) - @sporer - James Shields - I always struggle with when to start taking SPs.  Well actually I don’t struggle so much as I put it off as long as I can.  I joined the fray earlier than usual with Shields, but it’s hard not to be very pleased as he’s a beast.  He has back-to-back 215 inning seasons with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  He doesn’t dominate batters like a Lincecum or Sabathia, but he’s at or near 7 strikeouts per nine, which is usable.  There is nothing to suggest that the Rays are merely a one-year wonder so he should have the offensive support for wins again in 2009.
• Round 7 : Pick 9(81) - @therotofeed - Carlos Pena - I had to respond to the power dwindling from the boards by taking a player I normally don’t like to roster - I generally want guys I can count on to hit at least .270. But I made the mistake of going with too much BA and not enough power a few years back and learned it’s a lot harder to trade high BA/R/SB guys than it is to unload a basher who can’t hit .250. Plus Pena’s second half last year looked an awful lot like his monstrous 2007.
• Round 7 : Pick 10(82) - @dowdyism - Vernon Wells - After a tough 2007, Wells bounced back nicely in 2008.  Hamstring troubles last season curbed his full season totals, but I think 25 HR and 100 RBI are not out of reach and I’m happy to add his bat to my outfield.
• Round 7 : Pick 11(83) - @jasoncollette - Garrett Atkins - Might as well enjoy the final few months of his productive career before he is traded away from Coors. Unlike Holliday, Atkins is brutal away from Coors. Atkins qualifies at both corner spots which is a nice bonus for 2009 but you can count on reduced production in August and September.
• Round 7 : Pick 12(84) - @seniorcircuit - J.J. Hardy -I passed up Jeter, Tulo, and Young for Hardy.  None of those guys seem as promising as Hardy does at shortstop and a decent shortstop is hard to find.  I don’t feel I reached too far to take him and love the possibility of him improving his batting average and hitting for a little more power. I expect 80/25/85/2/.280

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

I’m way behind here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. To refresh your memory, go back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, and round 3.

• Round 4 : Pick 1(37) - @seniorcircuit - C.C. Sabathia - I was surprised and pleased to find Sabathia still on the board as my pick, for the beginning of the 4th round.  He was the 3rd pitcher taken overall behind Santana and Lincecum, which was different than the outcome of the poll on crookedpitch.com, asking who should be the first pitcher taken in drafts, found here. I have faith in him being a workhorse this season and settling into the role as ace of the Yankees, there shouldn’t be any need for him to worry about getting traded.  Sabathia will put up 18-20 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and well over 200 strikeouts.  I am also continuing my personal run of drafting players that are on brand new teams with huge contracts.
• Round 4 : Pick 2(38) - @jasoncollette - Alex Rios - I called him as a 30/30 guy for the Fanball magazine so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Look at the difference last year once the Jays brought Gaston in and got rid of Dembo’s hitting instruction.
• Round 4 : Pick 3(39) - @dowdyism - Ichiro Suzuki -It had been all power, all the time for my team up to this point.  It was time to get some steals in the mix, and Ichiro is the perfect fit in the fourth round.  He has been a model of consistency since entering the league, and 100 runs and a high AVG will compliment his stolen base output quite nicely.
• Round 4 : Pick 4(40) - @therotofeed - Nate McClouth - After passing on the likes of Braun and Longoria during earlier rounds in favor of players with slightly longer fantasy track records, I went ahead and took Nate McLouth with my fourth pick.  I tend to try to take “boring” picks with my first three picks in a snake draft, looking for reliability above all. By the time I get to round four, though, it’s time to seek some upside. And I think McLouth will have an even better year than last year.
• Round 4 : Pick 5(41) - @sporer - Kevin Youkilis -Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. Throw in mixed eligibility at 1B/3B and I’m pleased to land him here in the 3rd.
• Round 4 : Pick 6(42) - @tommystv - Vladimir Guerrero -I’ll admit I’m an Angels fan, and I became an Angels fan because of Vlad. With that being said, there is no one in the last seven picks that I would value more than Vlad. If Sabathia or Lincecum would have fallen I may have gone pitcher and Ichiro I would have viewed as equal, and would have been happy to maybe make a solid move on steals. Could have gone Ordonez or maybe McCann, but I’m feling good about Vlad falling to the middle of the 4th. .300 and around 30 HRs, lock it up.
• Round 4 : Pick 7(43) - @xxldaddyo - Brian McCann -Ya gotta have a catcher (or two) so why not take the best hitting catcher in all of baseball? McCann cut down on his K’s in the 2H last year while increasing his walks. Forget the 23 HR and .301 BA of last year. I’ll pencil him in for 26 HR and .310 in ‘09.
• Round 4 : Pick 8(44) - @jefeboy - Rafael Furcal -Was considering 3 players at this spot — Youkilis as the best remaining 1B, McCann as the #1 C and Furcal as the best remaining SS. The choice was simplified by my opponents. Staying with the IF strategy, gotta love the potential for contributions in 4 categories from SS. Shandler loves him this year and I love Shandler.
• Round 4 : Pick 9(45) - @fakebaseball - Dan Haren -I’ll probably be accused of reaching, but I feel that my fourth-round selection, Dan Haren, stands a good chance of matching the fantasy value of–or even outperforming–Webb, Halladay, Hamels, and Peavy in ‘09. I believe Haren will match or exceed 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8 K/9, with an impressive win total. It can be intimidating to go against the collective wisdom of average draft position when you are significantly more positive or more negative on a player, but it’s hard to win without taking risks.
• Round 4 : Pick 10(46) - @TheRoundtable - Brandon Webb -I won’t lie to you, this goes against my personal philosophy of not drafting pitching in the first five rounds, but I’m looking at value here. Webb has been going in the third round of most drafts, and getting him towards the end of the fourth is solid value. He’s going to be close to 20 wins, is consistently around a 3.20 ERA and keep his WHIP sub-1.25 (my threshold for top pitching). I just didn’t like the options available at some of the other positions as far as grabbing them here. There are others on my radar, but I think they’ll be around on the swing and in round six as well.
• Round 4 : Pick 11(47) - @Angels2717 - Roy Halladay -I am very happy to be able to get a solid pitcher in the late 4th round.  Halladay is one of those guys you love to have as your number one pitcher on a fantasy team. I like his high strikeout capability and 17+ win capability. Glad to be able to draft him at this point.
• Round 4 : Pick 12(48) - @crookedpitch - Russell Martin - If at all possible, I wanted to grab one of the big four catchers (McCann, Martin, Soto & Mauer). Martin’s ADP is 43.4, so this is a pretty good spot to grab him. McCann already went, so the run on catchers will shortly follow (most likely accentuated by my pick here). I actually like Martin’s fantasy value better than McCann’s. McCann has more pop, but Martin’s stolen base potential and multi-position eligibility make him a more valuable fantasy option.

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.