Crooked Pitch

I’m playing around with a new toy over on twitter. I asked all my tweeps yesterday who should be the first starting pitcher taken in fantasy drafts. The results of the poll are below. Check in every day at @crookedpitch for a new poll.

We’re booking along now. At this pace we’ll be done with this slow mock draft by mid-June.

It doesn’t matter how long it takes as long as you learn something, or at least laugh at us a little. Here’s the results from round two; a round where we see the first pitcher taken and the first arguments brew about reach picks.

• Round 2 : Pick 1(13) - @seniorcircuit - Matt Holliday - Taking 2 guys who will be playing for brand new teams in brand new ballparks.  You can’t ignore a 5 category player in the 2nd round, who I think will bounce back and put up numbers like 2006-2007. Possible 100/25/100/25/.320 season for him in 2009.
• Round 2 : Pick 2(14) - @jasoncollette - Ian Kinsler - I didn’t think Kinsler would be there at 14 so I’m happy with him. He’s a premium player at a premium position and could finish as a top 10 player if he can stay healthy this year.
• Round 2 : Pick 3(15) - @dowdyism - Lance Berkman -A bit of a boring pick, but there is no reason Berkman can’t keep up his 30 HR/100 RBI/.300 AVG pace in 2009.  I considered both Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia here, but fell in love with the lumber.
• Round 2 : Pick 4(16) - @therotofeed - Jimmy Rollins -I picked Rollins betting that he’d return a bit more value than last year, although certainly nowhere near his 2007 numbers.  He looked at a lot more pitches last year per AB than he has in the past, and I’m guessing that it had to do with his early season injuries. He gets more aggressive this year and I think some power returns.
• Round 2 : Pick 5(17) - @sporer - Carlos Beltran -Though his home run totals have declined yearly since 2006, Carlos Beltran has raised his batting average and stolen bases yearly over the same stretch.  It isn’t easy to find $30 earners and a strong case could be made for Beltran in the late 1st round as far as I’m concerned.  I was thrilled to pick him up in the mid-second round.  He is a bona fide 4-category producer with a tremendous power-speed combo.  Prior to last season his batting average was nothing to write home about, but it wasn’t a detriment to the roster, either.  Last year’s .284 proved quite usable and it wouldn’t be out of bounds to project an average creeping up near .300 this year as the second level numbers suggest he has been through some bad luck in the AVG department the past three seasons.  With his 40-40 potential window all but closed, he is no longer a “sexy” pick, but he is as rock solid of a producer as you can hope to get when building the foundation of your team.
• Round 2 : Pick 6(18) - @tommystv - Evan Longoria -My middle infield slant comes from a place of desiring top talent at thin positions. Jimmy Rollins was my ideal here, and no I’m not a Phillies fan. After picking Rollins I was gonna take a hard look at who ever the best 3B on my board was. This would have been in the  Aramis or Chipper range. Well since Rollins was gone there was no SS with any value at this spot, so my choice came down to Pedroia for my MI spot (and a nice piece of trade bait in either Pedroia or Utley later on) or Longoria. I went Longoria mainly because I like the pop, and also because I see a solid drop off at 3rd after him because of the health concerns of Ramirez and Chipper.
• Round 2 : Pick 7(19) - @xxldaddyo - Dustin Pedroia -I had planned on taking Evan Longoria in the second round (he, Sizemore and Hamilton are the cornerstones of my regular Roto league), but with Tommystv snatching him up (who also happens to be in my regular roto league) I went with last year’s MVP Dustin Pedroia. He’s not likely to repeat his numbers from last year, but the BA is REAL and when you factor in that he has 20/20 potential and position scarcity? It was just too hard to pass up on Pedroia.
• Round 2 : Pick 8(20) - @jefeboy - Johan Santana -I really struggled with this one on many levels. No SP had been taken yet, and there are still some tasty bats out there. I considered Carlos Lee; love the dependability. Thought about Brian Roberts, but that felt like a little bit of a reach in the 2nd round. So I settled on a SP, and even then… lots of people would have taken Timmah or Sabathia, but I’ll go with the grand old master. Of course now I have 2 Mets after 2 rounds. Oops…
• Round 2 : Pick 9(21) - @fakebaseball - Alfonso Soriano -I chose Soriano with my second pick with some misgivings. I took him because he was the best-available player on the board in my mind, but my top two picks are both leadoff hitters, so I’ve started off in the hole with regard to RBI. It’s something I’ll have to try to correct later in the draft.
• Round 2 : Pick 10(22) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Upton -I know, not the most conventional of picks with BJ Upton. I love the speed factor, and this is another guy that can hit for average on top of it. He’s getting on base, and that generates runs. The Rays lineup is only getting better, so I’ll trust him knowing that I have another pick pretty soon where I can grab more power numbers.
• Round 2 : Pick 11(23) - @Angels2717 - Carlos Lee -Taking Carlos in the late second round pleases me.  I enjoy his overall power and his batting average that keeps rising (.314 last year).  I always enjoy having a power outfielder and getting a solid one early is something I think most drafters should do.  His 100+ RBIs and a possible 30+ homers and .300+ average intrigues me in the late second round.  Especially in a fairly stacked Astros lineup, he should be racking up the RBIs.  I was tempted by either a Lincecum or Sabathia pick, but I thought I would wait a round or two to get my pitchers.
• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Justin Morneau -I’ve decided to go with power for the next few picks. Instead of arbitrarily grabbing the most home runs available, I wanted to consider the other offensive categories with this pick. In 2008, 28 players registered 100 or more RBI. Of those 28 players only 11 of them batted over .300. And of those 11 who batted over .300 and drove in 100+, seven are already off the board. With Morneau I take one of the remaining four hitters who are both RBI and batting average studs. I’ll enjoy the 20+ home runs and the almost 100 runs scored as well.

The age old argument of which players belong in the first round of a fantasy baseball draft is as vicious and friendly as a Lucy versus Ricky fight. All of us fantasy GM’s love each other, but we can never agree, 100%, on anything.

For upcoming 2009 fantasy drafts we’ll continue to argue the merits of the 12 players selected in round one all the way up until Opening Day. In an effort to truly understand the first round (something that we’ll never accomplish) we need to break it down.

My first thought was that the first round needs to be broken down into three tiers. Each of these tiers will contain players who are interchangeable within the tier, but don’t really fit into the other tiers. Upon further review, I feel four tiers are needed for the 2009 first round.

Tier One: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and David Wright.

These four players are the sole members of tier one because they are the only four players who have been selected with the first pick in the draft over at Mock Draft Central over the past two weeks. As you’ll see by their average draft positions and their highest and lowest spot taken statistics, it’s often agreed that these four belong at the top of the draft. Not many agree on where they should go. It depends a lot on personal preference (either for a player or for a particular stat category) and a little on risk.

• Ramirez - 1.35 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 4th
• Rodriguez - 2.11 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 5th
• Pujols - 3.01 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th
• Wright - 4.42 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th

Tier Two: Jose Reyes

I had originally thought that Reyes would be the fifth member of tier one. But, since he has not been taken first, and he’s the only remaining player who is always taken in the first round, I felt that he warranted a tier of his own.

• Reyes - 4.62 ADP | Earliest - 2nd | Latest - 10th

Tier Three: Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins

These three are generally the next three that are considered to go off of the board. You could almost argue that Sizemore belongs in the tier with Reyes, but he’s been taken outside of the first round periodically, so he’s banished to tier three. Rollins almost was knocked down to tier four as he’s been selected pretty late at times. But, he just snuck into tier three because his ADP is under 10. That’s the cutoff from tier three to tier four; you must have an ADP under 10 to be in tier three.

• Sizemore - 6.63 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 14th
• Cabrera - 7.22 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 16th
• Rollins - 9.46 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 18th

Tier Four: Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler and Ryan Howard

Here are the four players who make up the end of round one. The variances among them are huge. Sometimes you see them taken in the third slot, sometimes as late as 20th. These four are also the players that are most argued out of the first round and replaced by players like Chase Utley, Johan Santana, Mark Teixeira and Matt Hoilliday. What seperates the members of tier four from those just outside of it is their ADP. Each member of tier four has an ADP under twelve. They are the only remaining players who have that destinction.

• Hamilton - 10.51 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Braun - 10.76 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Kinsler - 11.10 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 20th
• Howard - 11.52 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 20th

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.

I just listed the top five hitters by rising ADP’s last week, now let’s move on the the pitchers.

1. Edwin Jackson | Detroit Tigers | +35.7 - I guess the Tigers aren’t the only folks that think that Jackson’s 24% decrease in ERA last season makes him a real deal sleeper. Mock drafters took Jackson in the 23rd round last week (260.57 ADP) instead of at an ADP of 353.63.
2. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.9% - With the move to Los Angeles Fuentes is moving into top 15 closer status at Mock Draft Central. He was a 15th round pick (174.56 ADP) last week but now is a 13th round pick at 146.77.
3. Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates | +17.6% - Snell was supposed to be a high strikeout sleeper in ‘08, but his strikeout total dropped by 24% and his ERA ballooned. He says he’s working out, eating right and feeling better, and apparently drafters are believing him. I’m not ready to drink the Snell rebound Kool-Aid, yet. He’s being taken at pick #263.67 (23rd round) now instead of #310.20 last week.
4. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves | +15.2% - Soriano is hurt and unsure of an opening day return. Not to mention he’s #2 on the bullpen depth chart to Mike Gonzalez. But he’s climbing the charts at MDC; up from 252.30 (21st round) to 219.05(19th round).
5. Chad Cordero | Free Agent | +7.0% - Lot’s of rumors about Cordero and where he’ll land. But the biggest question is can he return and be effective from shoulder surgery. He’s up from 269.87 (23rd round) to 252.30 (21st round) as some of you believe the answer is yes.

If you haven’t been to Mock Draft Central and gotten in a few mock drafts, you need to do that. The data used today is taken from their ADP trend report, which I pulled this morning.

Over the last week here are the hitters that are seeing the biggest upward moves in their average draft position.

1. Rocco Baldelli | Boston Red Sox | +52.4% - With the announcement of Baldelli joining the Red Sox, Baldelli has risen more than any other player in baseball over the last week. His ADP was 420.84 and is now 276.08 placing him in the 23rd round.
2. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels | +35.0% - I suppose that charging the mound with a bat in your hand is the path to fantasy relevance. Aybar moved into the 23rd round this week at 275.04 from 371.21 last week.
3. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | +15.9% - A batting average of .330 with seven home runs in his limited 115 at-bats last season squarely placed Cruz on every sleeper list around. He’ll be a household name by the time your fantasy draft comes around, so don’t over pay. Last week his ADP was 180.62, but over this past week it’s risen to 155.86 putting Cruz in the 13th round.
4. Willy Taveras | Cincinnati Reds | +14.0% - Taveras is climbing this week because he found a new team. And the Reds have penciled him (and his 65+ potential stolen bases) in at the center field position. Taveras is now being taken in the 15th round (179.23 ADP) instead of the 17th round (204.31 ADP).
5. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +13.2% - Utley’s been hovering in the 3rd round because of his injured right leg and uncertain return status to baseball. But when he announced that he’ll be ready by opening day, the ADP started to rise from 26.58 to 23.49. If Utley is ready by Opening Day, he’s a a bargain at the back of the 2nd round.

Other hitters of note that moved well this week: Grady Sizemore (+6.4%), Jacoby Ellsbury (+8.2%), Chris Davis (+11.5%) , Matt Wieters (+10.2%), Jayson Werth (+11%), Mike Napoli (+9.7%), Jose Lopez (+11.9%), Fred Lewis (+11.6%), Jason Kubel (+11.4%), Mark Ellis (+13.2%), and Matt Joyce (+13.2%)

I recently broke from my usual fantasy draft strategy when I took three starting pitchers prior to the 12th round. I usually will only grab one stud starting pitcher, one stud closer, and then fill out the rest of my staff in the mid to late rounds.

That being said, I took a look at average draft position over at Mock Draft Central and I wanted to see what kind of pitching staff I could put together of players who are going in the 14th round or later (157 ADP or greater). Taking into consideration that I have already splurged on a stud ace and a closer to start filling in my nine pitcher staff, here are the other seven starting pitchers that I can get in the later rounds.

1. Matt Garza | Tampa Bay Rays | 167.52 ADP - Garza will win 11 games or so for the Rays and should have an ERA in the 3.70 to 3.90 range with 150+ strikeouts. That’s nice for the 14th round.
2. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 173.37 ADP - Taken in the 15th round Slowey is good for 12 wins or so and should approach 140 strikeouts. He’ll also help out with a sub 3.75 ERA.
3. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 182.82 ADP - Jurrjens is a 16th round pick and should win 11 games and strike out 125 or so. His ERA will stay below 4.00.
4. Justin Duchscherer | Oakland Athletics | 188.37 ADP - Also a 16th round pick, Duchscherer will really help your teams ERA as he’ll probably post under 3.25 in ‘09. He’ll also win 10 games and strike out 100.
5. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs | 190.10 ADP - 12 wins, a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA and 175 strikeouts would be great from Lilly in the 16th round.
6. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | 193.16 ADP - Wang should give you 12-13 wins and will keep his ERA well under 4.00. He’s not going to help with strikeouts much, but in the 17th round that’s ok.
7. John Maine | New York Mets | 229.22 ADP - Take Maine in the 20th round and you could get 10 wins, a 3.95 ERA or so, and 125 strikeouts.

If you’ll notice I had two criteria that needed to be met to land on this list. You must be projected to win 10+ games and your ERA needed to be under 4.00. If I had relaxed those standards a bit, look who else could have popped onto this list.

• Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies | 174.23 ADP - 10+ wins but his ERA will be above 4.00.
• Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 229.25 ADP - 10 wins, an ERA above 4.00, but 175+ strikeouts in the 20th round. Wow!
• Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 206.23 ADP - 12 wins and 125+ strikeouts.
• Ulbaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 229.77 ADP - Another 160+ strikeouts in the 20th round.
• Mark Buehrle | Chicago White Sox | 224.55 ADP - This 19th round guy should win 12 games and strike out 130.