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A lot of new faces in the week 5 [tag]fantasy baseball MVP list[/tag].

Catcher: Victor Martinez (CLE) had a good week at the plate going .455/.538/.682 with a home run and 6 RBI. Let’s hope his day to day status after taking a foul tip to the arm is just that, and not the previews of a trip to the DL. Speaking of the DL, Ramon Hernandez (BAL) hasn’t been off the DL long, but quick out of the gates hit 10 RBI last week with a home run and a stolen base. He averaged .273/.346/.455.

First Base / DH: Prince Fielder (MIL) hit .440/.533/.960 with 4 home runs and 12 RBI last week and is working on a 7 game hitting streak. Gary Sheffield (DET) produced in just about every category this week hitting .333/.478/.833 with 6 runs scored, 3 home runs, 7 RBI and 2 stolen bases.

Second Base: Orlando Hudson (ARI) had a good week going .346/.433/.577 with 2 home runs, 5 RBI and 2 stolen bases. Royals utility infielder, Esteban German (KC) is typically light with the bat. But last week hit .300/.391/.600 with 2 home runs, 6 RBI and a stolen base. He’s still not an everyday starter, but keep an eye on him. If he keeps hitting like this, the Royals will find a way to keep him in the lineup.

Third Base: Here’s another guy who’s recently off the disabled list. Troy Glaus (TOR) hit .400/.483/.900 with 4 home runs and 7 RBI. Ryan Freel (CIN) stole 2 bases, hit a home run and had 3 RBI while averaging .375/.500/.688.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy (MIL) is currently working on a 17 game hitting streak. Last week he hit .536/.567/.857 with 2 home runs and 9 runs batted in. Starting in the 2nd week of the season, Jhonny Peralta (CLE) went ice cold. Last week, Peralta was red hot going .348/.444/.652 with 2 home runs and 8 RBI.

Outfield: Obviously, Shane Victorino (PHI) has been given the green light on the basepaths. This past week he stole 7 bases while hitting .478/.500/.652 with a home run and 4 RBI. Craig Monroe (DET) went .348/.400/826 and had 3 home runs and 10 RBI. Ken Griffey Jr. (CIN) hit .478/.571/.913 with 3 home runs, 5 RBI and a stolen base. Continuing with the just off the DL theme, Hideki Matsui (NYY) hit a home run with 7 runs batted in while averaging .348/.444/.696.

Starting Pitcher: Jake Peavy (SD) only had 1 win last week but his 20:4 k:bb ratio was super impressive. So was his 0.79 WHIP and 1.93 ERA. Mark Hendrickson (LAD) may not have a secure spot in the rotation, but if he keeps striking out 7 in 6 innings while only walking 1, he will. Hendrickson won his only start and had 0.00 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP.

Relief Pitcher: Trevor Hoffman (SD) had 3 saves with a 4:0 k:BB ratio. He also sported a 0.00 ERA and a 0.33 WHIP. Brian Fuentes (COL) also had 3 saves and a 0.00 ERA. His WHIP was 0.67 and he had a 3:1 k:bb ratio.

Previous weeks: Week 4 Fantasy MVP’s | Week 3 Fantasy MVP’s | Week 2 Fantasy MVP’s | Week 1 Fantasy MVP’s

In yesterday’s post about American League buy low hitting candidates, I promised to cover the National League. Well, here you go…

Catcher: [tag]Brian Schneider[/tag] (WAS) has a contact rate of 83.13% but is batting only .205. Adding to that poor batting average is his .235 BABIP. Schneider’s batting average should come up. His first two games in May (3 for 7) show he has the ability to bring that average up to respectability.

First Base: Ouch! [tag]Adam LaRoche[/tag] (PIT) has a horrific contact rate of 64.83%. The Bucco Blog has some good insight as to what’s happening with LaRoche’s swing and plate discipline. LoRoche is just as unlucky with his batted balls as he is bad at making contact right now. His BABIP is .161. Until he figures out his preparation problems at the plate, LaRoche should still strike out in boat loads. But, his BABIP will go up, ans so will his batting average.

Second Base: I suppose the days of second basemen being good contact hitters with no pop are long gone. Of all the NL second basemen, I could only find one with a K% below 13% (where respectability begins). That means every other NL second sacker is striking out way too much; making contact way to infrequently. Looking into BABIP, only 1 hitter is below .250 and only 3 below .270. These guys are getting lucky with their batted balls and striking out way too much. I can’t recommend any NL second baseman for a buy low strategy. Sorry.

Shortstop: [tag]David Eckstein[/tag] (STL) makes contact at a phenomenal rate of 98.9%, but is only hitting .220 right now due to a low BABIP of .222. His unlucky streak will fade away and his average will rise.

Third Base: With a contact rate of 85.36% and a BABIP of .250, [tag]Scott Rolen[/tag] (STL) should see his .232 batting average start to climb.

Outfield: Rookie [tag]Chris Young[/tag] (ARI) was much hyped in the off-season and spring training. However, a .202 start to 2007 has some Diamondback faithful worried. They shouldn’t be. Young makes contact at a respectable 85.10% but has just been mired with a terrible BABIP of .197. When some of those batted balls start falling, and his BABIP rises to a normal .290, he’ll carry his anemic batting average up with it.

Are you looking for a few hitters that you can buy low right now. Well, I’m going to give you almost a whole team of them. Here’s a list of 6 [tag]American League[/tag] hitters (one from each position) who you may be able to obtain right now for below market value. In every case here, I believe that these hitters will rebound and show great return on your investment.

Catcher: [tag]A.J. Pierzynski[/tag] (CHW) has a very unlucky .197 BABIP and a 90.9% contact rate. Those two numbers correlate fantastically for a rise in A.J.’s batting average.

First Base: [tag]Casey Kotchman[/tag] (LAA) is not walking enough right now (only 7.4% of the time). And he’s seen his batting average fall from .400 to .265 in a matter of 3 weeks. But his good K% of 9.2%, his BABIP of .260 and a high contact rate of 90.8% call for bust from this slump.

Second Base: [tag]Tadahito Iguchi[/tag] (CHW) isn’t starting his contract year the way he wanted to. But he should rebound nicely and be a strong deep mixed league 2B. He’s sporting a .246 BABIP right now and a 88.73 contact rate.

Shortstop: [tag]Yuniesky Betancourt[/tag] (SEA) is making contact with the ball at a fantastic rate of 94.5% But he’s mired with a .212 BABIP which has his batting average at .233. He’ll right the ship and as a bonus may give you a bit more pop than last year as he’s already hit more home runs that he had after the first two months last season.

Third Base: [tag]Joe Crede (CHW)[/tag] is only hitting .215 so far this year as his BABIP is .247. But he’s got a contact rate of 87.09% and is showing signs of heating up.

Outfield: [tag]Manny Ramierez[/tag] (BOS) is just being Manny. Remember he got off to a slow start last year too. Right now he has a BABIP of .247, a contact rate of 82.47% and a BB% of 14.2%… all promising numbers for Manny fans.

I’ll give you a National League squad tomorrow.

I asked the question last week as to how long it was going to take ARod to fall from the top spot at third base on our weekly MVP list. For everyone who took the under, well done. Let’s see if anyone else is going to step up and challenge the top spot of three straight weeks on the list.

Catcher: To be honest with you, nobody really tore it up at this position this week. Victor Martinez (CLE) had 7 RBI, but only hit .250/.344/.429. Ryan Doumit (PIT) had a big game and some big numbers for a backup going .545/.545/1.000 with a home run and 4 RBI.

First Base: Derrek Lee (CHC) hit .522/.542/.913 with a home run and 5 RBI to edge out Adrian Gonzalez (SD) who hit .320/.370/.600 with 2 home runs and 8 RBI.

Second Base: Wow, B.J. Upton (TB) has arrived! .417/.440/.958 with 3 home runs, 9 RBI and 3 stolen bases take top honor here. Another close race at 2B had Chase Utley (PHI) coming in second with .444/.500/.778 with 2 home runs, 10 RBI and a stolen base.

Third Base: Just like the catcher position this week, no third baseman really stood out or excelled. I’m giving the trophy to Chipper Jones (ATL) who hit .345/.387/.724 with 2 home runs and 6 RBI and Jones gets the bounty for knocking ARod out of this top spot. Mike Lowell (BOS) did some damage to the Yankees this past week as he lands on the list with a .333/.448/.542 with a home run and 6 RBI.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins (PHI) was the man last week going .344/.364/.688 with 3 home runs, 6 RBI and 4 stolen bases. It was the 4 stolen bases that separated Rollins from Alex Gonzalez (CIN) who hit .520/.538/.1.040 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI.

Outfield: Magglio Ordonez (DET) hit .571/.654/.1.095 with 2 home runs and 11 RBI. Vernon Wells (TOR) hit .458/.567/.750 with a home run, 5 RBI and 3 stolen bases. Gary Matthews Jr. (LAA) hit .448/.515/.724 with 2 home runs, 6 RBI and a stolen base. The big surprise here, both for the week and for 2007, is Sammy Sosa (TEX). WHo would of thought I would be mentioning his name in MVP circles? Sosa went .348/.423/.826 with 3 home runs and 7 RBI.

Starting Pitcher: John Maine (NYM) continues to excel winning twice this week while posting a 0.61 ERA and a 13:5 strikeout to walk ratio. Dan Haren (OAK) also won twice, posted a 1.88 ERA and his strikeout to walk ratio was an astounding 12:1.

Relief Pitcher: J.J. Putz (SEA) notched 3 saves while posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.35 WHIP. His K:BB was 3:1. Armando Benitez (NYM) also recorded 3 saves with a 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a 3:0 K:BB ratio.

If you would like to see fantasy MVP’s from past weeks you can click below.
Week 1 Fantasy Baseball MVP’s
Week 2 Fantasy Baseball MVP’s
Week 3 Fantasy Baseball MVP’s

Last week, maybe a few more days ago than that, I randomly clicked around the [tag]fantasy baseball[/tag] world and found some fabulous writing. Well, I am sitting here, watching the Braves game, and thought I would take another stroll.

Over at Greener on the Other Side, I found a very interesting post that could help you climb the ranks in the runs scored category. The post speaks about using Secondary Average (SecA) as a way to forecast crossing the plate.

A player’s secondary average is, according to ESPN, a way to look at a player’s extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average. The formula is (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. I showed that a player’s SecA is a great indicator for the runs scored category.

Warning Track Power writes about a way for us to evaluate pitchers and find candidates for buying low. By looking for pitchers with high ground ball percentages and high strikeout rates fantasy baseball owners can find hidden gems, who are on the rise to stardom.

These are the pitchers that finished ‘06 with at least a 45% ground ball rate and 6.5K/9: Brandon Webb, Felix Hernandez, Chris Carpenter, Andy Pettite, Erik Bedard, Roy Oswalt, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Zambrano, David Bush, John Smoltz, Brett Myers, Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabathia. On its own, neither stat does a good job weeding out poor starting pitchers. Combine the two, and you’ve got a list of fantasy aces.

Over at MLB Fantasy Advice, a projection of Alex Rodriguez has him hitting 53 home runs and 146 RBI. But what’s even more interesting is who he says he would have to get in trade for ARod.

In my view, unless you can get a top tier hitter (Pujols, Ortiz, Hafner etc.) AND a top pitcher (Santana, Oswalt, Peavy etc), then keep him.

Would you like to see an up to date look at the 2007 closer situation? Who wouldn’t?

Baseball closer is not a position with much job security. It’s a competition that continues year-round, as every manager tries to keep the hottest pitcher on the mound for the ninth.

We have a number of return visitors to our [tag]weekly fantasy baseball MVP[/tag] list. Two players were on the week 1 fantasy baseball list and three players were on the week 2 list. Let’s set an over/under on number of weeks it takes ARod to fall out of the 3B MVP spot. Leave a comment and tell me over or under 3 weeks until ARod doesn’t top this list at 3B.

Catcher: Joe Mauer (MIN) is beginning to show everyone that his spring training stress reaction is behind him. His averages were .529/.609/.882 while scoring 5 times, driving in 7, and stealing 2 bases. Russell Martin (LAD) continues his plate prowess going .273/.346/.500 with 6 runs, 1 home run, 8 RBI and a stolen base.

1B/DH: Fresh off the Red Sox’ sweep of the Yankees, David Ortiz (BOS) makes his 2nd appearance on the weekly fantasy MVP list going .364/.440/.955 with 5 runs, 3 home runs and 6 RBI. Adrian Gonzalez (SD) hit .353/.405/.588 with 5 runs, 2 home runs and 7 RBI.

2B: Whoever said you can’t go home again, wasn’t thinking of Marcus Giles’ (SD) return to San Diego. Last week he hit .394/.417/.576, scored 6 times, launched a home run, drove in 8, and had 2 stolen bases. Ian Kinsler (TEX) hit .364/.400/.727 with 7 runs, 2 home runs, 6 RBI and 1 stolen base.

3B: What Alex Rodriguez (NYY) is doing in April, so far, is just sick. His 12 home runs are more than 7 entire MLB teams and I expect him to set new records for home runs and RBI in the month of April. In week 3 he hit .423/.407/1.115 with 8 runs, 5 home runs and 14 RBI. Chipper Jones (ATL) is staying healthy and hitting .320/.469/.760 with 7 runs, 3 home runs and 6 RBI.

SS: The shortstop position was a tough decision for me this week. So tough, in fact, that I am placing three names on the list instead of two. The top honor goes to Carlos Guillen (DET) who hit .333/.440/.667 with 3 runs, 2 home runs, 10 RBI and 2 swipes. Jose Reyes (NYM) and J.J. Hardy (MIL) tie for the backup spot. Reyes averaged .478/.538/.826 while scoring 7 times, hitting 1 home run and stealing 3 bases. Hardy averaged .281/.303/.688 with 6 runs, 4 home runs and 8 RBI.

OF: Carlos Beltran (NYM) tore it up at the plate this week hitting .542/.577/1.125 with 7 runs, 2 home runs, 9 RBI and 2 stolen bases. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), by going .444/.444/.741 with 7 runs, 2 home runs, 4 RBI with a stolen base, showed that Dice K isn’t the only Japanese superstar in MLB. Another Mets outfielder made the list this week. Moises Alou (NYM) averaged .471/.524/.824 with 5 runs, 2 home runs and 7 RBI. Is 2007 the year Jose Cruz (SD) .455/.538/.682, 7 runs, 1 home run, 2 RBI, 1 SB, finally gets back to hitting like a first round pick?

SP: Kyle Lohse (CIN) didn’t win both of his starts this past week, but his 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a 16/2 K/BB ratio were pretty fantastic. Jason Marquis (CHC) did win both of his starts and posted an ERA and WHIP or 0.69/1.08. He also had a 10/4 K/BB ratio.

RP: Chris Ray (BAL) had a win and 2 saves last week to go along with a 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 6 K’s and 0 walks. That was good enough for top honors for relief pitchers this week. Al Reyes (TB) had 3 saves and posted 0.00/0.50 ERA/WHIP numbers with his 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. If his young Tampa Bay hitters can keep this up, he may post some serious relief numbers.

Let’s take a stroll around the baseball blogosphere and see what interesting things I can find.

I was a big fan of Ryan Braun this spring, and still am for that matter. The blog, Warning Track Power, has been keeping up with Braun so far this season in the minors. Pretty soon we’ll all be keeping up with him as he’s playing in Milwaukee.

He tore up spring training (including ST numbers, he now has 10HRs in 69ABs this year), and everything about him–his power, plate discipline, and lack of K’s (7 in69ABs)–says he’s a major league hitter.

The Moonlight Gram has a heavily stats based post comparing Baseball Forecaster versus Baseball Prospectus.

PECOTA projections seem to be more conservative than Shandler for the top 250 players or so, and more aggressive for the rest. This would indicate that PECOTA is predicting that more overall production may come this year from players who go undrafted by the fantasy world.

Over at Fantasy Gameday, they have some good ideas for your week 3 fantasy roster.

Keep in mind that Boston and the entire NL have 7 games scheduled this week.