Archive for the “Fantasy Baseball” Category


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Let’s take a stroll around the baseball blogosphere and see what interesting things I can find.

I was a big fan of Ryan Braun this spring, and still am for that matter. The blog, Warning Track Power, has been keeping up with Braun so far this season in the minors. Pretty soon we’ll all be keeping up with him as he’s playing in Milwaukee.

He tore up spring training (including ST numbers, he now has 10HRs in 69ABs this year), and everything about him–his power, plate discipline, and lack of K’s (7 in69ABs)–says he’s a major league hitter.

The Moonlight Gram has a heavily stats based post comparing Baseball Forecaster versus Baseball Prospectus.

PECOTA projections seem to be more conservative than Shandler for the top 250 players or so, and more aggressive for the rest. This would indicate that PECOTA is predicting that more overall production may come this year from players who go undrafted by the fantasy world.

Over at Fantasy Gameday, they have some good ideas for your week 3 fantasy roster.

Keep in mind that Boston and the entire NL have 7 games scheduled this week.

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We only had one returning player from our Week 1 fantasy baseball MVP list. We would have had two, but can you believe that a one hit, complete game shutout, while taking a no hitter into the 8th inning, wasn’t good enough to make our MVP list at the starting pitcher position? Sorry Felix.

Once again, here’s the guys that shined in week 2 and a few players who are working their way towards household name status.

Catcher: Russell Martin (LAD) : Martin’s power numbers weren’t stud like in week 2, but any time you hit .381 with 5 RBI and 3 stolen bases as a catcher, you’ll be considered for this list. Greg Zaun (TOR) hit .257/.325/.486 with 7 RBI and even on his day off, hit a pinch hit home run late in a game.

1B: David Ortiz (BOS) : Papi drove in 10 while hitting 3 home runs and even scored 6 runs. Averages of .368/.429/.895 aren’t too shabby either. One of Papi’s old teammates, Kevin Millar (BAL), showed he learned a thing or two from Ortiz. Millar hit .455/.552/.864 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI.

2B: Aaron Hill (TOR) : Hill scored 8 times, hit 1 home run, and drove in 8 as he batted .500/.536/.808 in week 2. Richie Weeks (MIL) showed some extremely well rounded numbers. His averages were .389/.500/.944 and he scored 8 times, hit 2 home runs, drove in 4 and stole a base. Who says you can’t be good at everything?

3B: Alex Rodriguez (NYY) : ARod is scorching, white hot currently. In week 2 he hit .318/.448/.909 and had 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Maybe dumping Jeter for Mientkiewicz was the way to go. Chad Tracy (ARI) hit a homer and drove in 4 while averaging .350/.381/.700.

SS: Michael Young (TEX) : What does it take to knock Jose Reyes out of the top SS spot? .304/.385/.609 with 2 home runs, 7 RBI and a stolen base did it for Young. But the voting was close. Jhonny Peralta (CLE) hit .294/.381/.471 with a home run, 3 RBI and a stolen base.

OF: Alex Rios (TOR) : Rios had a monster week and is the 3rd Toronto Blue Jay on the week 2 list. He scored 6 times, drove in 7, hit 2 dingers and stole a base while hitting .379/.387/.655. Luis Gonzalez (LAD) had similar numbers to Rios hitting .333/.391/.762 with 3 homers, 6 RBI and a stolen base. Carlos Lee (HOU) had some great power numbers this week hitting 3 home runs with 7 RBI while maintaining a .350/.435/.850 average. With all the off field problems and struggles just to make it to the big leagues, Josh Hamilton (CIN) showed in week 2 why perseverance and determination are great things. He hit 2 home runs and 5 RBI in only 13 at bats, while going .364/.533/1.000.

SP: Now we get to find out who beat out “King Felix” and his near no hitter to earn starting pitcher fantasy MVP for week 2. Ironically, it’s a member of the Red Sox, the team Hernandez almost no hit. Curt Schilling (BOS) started twice and threw 15.o innings. He won both games while striking out 10 and had an ERA of 0.60 and a WHIP of 0.67. Erik Bedard (BAL) also went 2-0 in two starts with 14 strikeouts. A 2.77 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, while nice, kept him from serious consideration against Schilling for the top spot.

RP: Todd Jones (DET): Jones had 4 saves in week 2 and posted a 0.00 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP. Quietly, Jose Valverde (ARI) recorded 3 saves and also had a 0.00 ERA. His WHIP was 1.67.

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The first week of baseball for 2007 is in the books. We’ve seen snow in Texas, the 103 million dollar roll of the “Dice” by the Red Sox begin to pay off, (BTW, my favorite play on his name so far has been “Dice K is Nice K”) and the schizophrenic Yankee faithful have more reasons to cheer ARod than jeer him (although that was a close call).

I wanted to throw out my positional MVP’s and also give you some players who aren’t in the upper echelon, but played like it in week 1.

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) - McCann hit .368/.400/.737 with 2 home runs and 6 RBI while leading the Atlanta Braves to an early NL East lead. We knew McCann was the best fantasy catcher in the National League, and he didn’t disappoint in the first week of play. Keep an eye on Carlos Ruiz (PHI) who seems to be playing a bit more than “starting catcher” Rod Barajas. Ruiz hit .375/.375/.625 with a home run and 2 RBI while Barajas… didn’t.

1B: Mike Jacobs (FLA) Jacobs may not be showing his 30 home run potential, but .429/.455/.762 with 1 home run and 4 RBI are good enough to top this list for week 1. Keeping up with his kid brother, Dmitri Young (WAS) showed us that maybe all fantasy eyes shouldn’t be on Delmon. Dmitri hit .304/.385/.565 with a home run and 4 RBI while hitting in the heart of the Nats lineup. Dmitri may be a good short term pickup, but remember that the first base job is Nick Johnson’s when he’s finished with his rehab.

2B: All the Cubs fans who were anxious to see what Ryan Theriot could do after his short term ‘06 audition at second base are going to have to wait for a while. Mark Derosa (CHC) sizzled this week going .412/.474/.882 with 2 home runs and 6 RBI. His past numbers show that these power numbers we are seeing out of him are very uncharacteristic and shouldn’t last too long. But hell, pick him up and ride the rocket ship until it runs out of gas. Kazuo Matsui (COL) hit .462/.500/.615 with 3 RBI and 2SB and may finally be ready to show the Mets why it was a bad idea to give up on him.

3B: Alex Rodriguez (NYY) lost his best bud in the off season (sorry, I couldn’t resist), but didn’t lose his bat, going .389/.450/1.056 with 3 home runs and 9RBI with a stolen base to boot. He also struck out in the 8th inning with the bases loaded while trailing and botched a foul ball pop fly to earn his first error of the season. ARod is gonna hear a lot of booing this season, but if he continues with these power numbers, he shouldn’t. Japanese “rookie” Aki Iwamura (TB) wants some love from the American press too. He hit .615/.706/.923 with 1 home run, 1 RBI and 1 stolen base.

SS: There is no doubt that Jose Reyes (NYM) earned his first round pick status in just about every fantasy draft on the planet. With numbers .318/.423/.720 with a home run, 7 RBI and 2 stolen bases Reyes owners’ are giggling at the guys who took Pujols and Howard in front of them. Could this be the rebound year Khalil Green (SD) and Padres fans have been hoping for? If he keeps hitting .333/.333/.762 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI each week, I guarantee it.

OF: Vlad Guererro (LAA), .524/.560/1.048 with 3 home runs and 10 RBI, is a stud! ‘Nuff said. Grady Sizemore (CLE), even in a snow shortened week for the Tribe, showed .429/.467/1.071 with 3 home runs and 4 RBI numbers, and gave all of us a look at what he can do when it stops snowing in July and he gets to play 6 games a week. Adam Dunn (CIN) is always hot in April. But his K’s are down, he’s stealing bases at an alarming rate and still tearing the cover off the ball. He went .353/.500/.882 with 3 home runs, 6 RBI and 2 stolen bases in week 1. If you haven’t already noticed the 4 stolen bases, 2 home runs, 6 RBI and .385/.448/.731 numbers from Eric Byrnes (ARI), do so now!

SP: King, Felix Hernandez (SEA), had one start threw 12 strikeouts, walked 2 and held opponents to a .115 batting average. He’s 1-0 with 0.00 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. John Maine (NYM) showed that the Mets were right in handing him the #3 spot in the rotation. He pitched 7 innings, struck out 6, walked 2 and held opponents to a .045 batting average against him. His ERA and WHIP are 0.00/0.43. How many Mets fans have stopped bad mouthing Maine?

RP: Joe Nathan (MIN) recorded 2 saves in week one to take the relief pitcher top honor. His K/BB ratio was upside down as he walked 2 and struck out 1. The only thing that kept Salomon Torres (PIT) from being the only relief pitcher listed here, was his 3.00 ERA. Which is kind of unfair to Torres as he’s only given up 1 hit so far, albeit a home run. Torres has 3 saves and a 0.33 WHIP to go with that 3.00 ERA. He’s also the owner of 3 K’s and 0 walks.

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Since we’re a week away from opening day, I thought I would spend the final 7 days of Spring Training 2007 by looking at some historical April numbers. These numbers will give you a look at some interesting April stats and help you get out of the gates quickly in your fantasy leagues.

If you’re looking for April home runs in your NL only league (or a mixed league, for that matter) [tag]Adam Dunn[/tag] is a pretty good source. In 2006, Dunn hit 9 HR’s and tied for 3rd in the NL in the month of April. In 2005 he hit 6 home runs and tied for 2nd that month. In 2004 he hit 8 home runs and, once again, tied for 3rd in April. Dunn is the only NL player to finish the opening month, all three years, in the top 10 in home runs.

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I just finished my draft over at [tag]Rotohog[/tag] and wanted to post my results here. I feel secure in sharing my team with all of you because to win this league, and the $100,000 first prize, there will have to be so much player movement on the trading floor my whole roster may turn over multiple times.

I went after quality middle infielders as I feel those spots are valuable and I wanted a top notch starter for day 1, but other than that I drafted for upside and future value so I could earn “RotoHog Dollars” to continually build my team throughout the season. I’m no expert on the Rotohog field. For that you’ll have to visit [tag]The Rotohog Blog[/tag]. But I do plan to have fun and try and win some nice cash prizes.

If you would like to come join the Crooked Pitch League after you draft, feel free. I would also love your feedback on my team. You can leave a comment here or visit my contact page to congratulate or blast my team.

C - Russell Martin $16
1B - Ryan Shealy $1
2B - Robinson Cano $24
SS - Jimmy Rollins $35
3B - Edwin Encarnacion $6
OF - Grady Sizemore $31
OF - Delmon Young $2
OF - Andre Ethier $4
Util - Kevin Kouzmanoff $0.50

SP - Chris Carpenter $46
SP - Joel Pineiro $0.50
RP - Ocatvio Dotel $2
RP - Boof Bonser $6
P - Rich Hill $4
P - Brandon McCarthy $0.50

I still have $121.75 RH Dollars to play with.

I also wanted to let everyone know in which round I took these guys, as knowing that can add value and strategy for those of you who haven’t drafted yet. I did not keep track of every team during the draft, so I can’t provide a complete draft list, but I can tell my personal draft order.

1st Round - Robinson Cano $24
2nd Round - Jimmy Rollins $35
3rd Round - Grady Sizemore $31
4th Round - Russell Martin $16
5th Round - Delmon Young $2
6th Round - Edwin Encarnacion $6
7th Round - Ryan Shealy $1
8th Round - Andre Ethier $4
9th Round - Kevin Kouzmanoff $0.50
10th Round - Rich Hill $4
11th Round - Ocatvio Dotel $2
12th Round - Joel Pineiro $0.50
13th Round - Chris Carpenter $46
14th Round - Boof Bonser $6
15th Round - Brandon McCarthy $0.50

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I just read an interesting post over at The Waiver Wire speaking about xFIP as a tool for ERA forecasting.

“If you had to bet your life on the accuracy of an [tag]ERA forecast[/tag] made by one stat, what would it be? Mine would be xFIP…”

We all know that Johan Santana is far and away the #1 SP that should be taken off the board. I decided to put xFIP to the test and rank the five 2nd tier pitchers available in upcoming drafts. Here they are with their [tag]xFIP[/tag] value, in order of how I have ranked them :

Chris Carpenter - 3.53
Carlos Zambrano - 4.43
Roy Oswalt - 3.75
Brandon Webb - 3.13
Roy Halladay - 3.59

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[tag]Micah Owings[/tag], the 24 year old top [tag]Arizona Diamondbacks[/tag] pitching prospect, is looking good this spring. He needs to, as a good spring might be the only thing that will keep him in the DBacks rotation. Last season his minor league numbers looked like this:

AA 12GS 6-2 2.91ERA 74.1IP 69K 17BB
AAA 15GS 10-0 3.70ERA 87.2IP 61K 34BB

Owings is competing with 4 others for the #5 spot in the rotation. Owings has the best spring ERA of the bunch and, if the decision is based on spring numbers, seems to be the front runner. Here’s his spring line so far:

2007 3G 2GS 0-0 1.29ERA 7.0IP 8K 3BB

His K/BB in AAA Tucson is a bit scary at 1.79, but if you look at his whole year, last season it’s 2.54.

As of right now, Owings is a great keeper league option and you can take him in the late rounds of your NL only drafts.

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