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Typically, the minimum amount of time required to recover and rehab from Tommy John surgery is 12 months. B.J. Ryan underwent TJ surgery in May of 2007, but is trying very hard to be ready by opening day.

So there is rampant optimism throughout Jays camp that Ryan’s return is legitimate. The next question is, “What about Janssen?” Manager John Gibbons wants to leave him in the bullpen, where he had a breakout season in 2007, while GM J.P. Ricciardi wants to put him in the rotation and bump Litsch to Syracuse.

If Ryan can return and close games out by the start of the season, Jeremy Accardo would slip into the set-up role. Keep an eye on the rehab status of Ryan as Spring Training progresses. Neither Ryan nor Accardo should be drafted in early to middle rounds of mixed league drafts. You can consider a very late round flier on Ryan, but Accardo should only be drafted if Ryan falters or your league uses the holds stat.

Say it ain’t so…

Let me first preface this blog post by saying that neither the St. Louis Cardinals nor Albert Pujols himself have verified these rumors. I’m doing my best right now to get a definite answer, but any fantasy GM who is going into a draft soon with an early to middle pick in the first round needs to listen up. Listen up!!!

A few very prominent bloggers have posted stories about Albert Pujols and his health going into the 2008 season.

MLBnewsonline writes about Pujols,

“He was already voicing concern about his right elbow, which probably needs Tommy John surgery, and if that elbow (or the back or the hammies) give him significant trouble…he might not be able to battle through the pain again.”

Speculation is growing that Dominican slugger may miss significant portions or perhaps even all of the season, though it doesn’t seem to make sense that Pujols would have waited this late to make the decision to undergo invasive medical procedures had he not already committed to try to play in 2008.

Eric at Fake Teams writes,

The question fantasy players have to deal with is how much this report from a radio personality is new information and how much it just has its source in the Albert press conference. No fantasy player who has drafted Albert Pujols wants this to be new info because it means there 1st round pick in 2008 was just flushed down the toilet.

I’m not sure I’m on the bandwagon of believability yet, as this is shocking news. I find it hard to believe that Pujols would have waited until this close to Spring Training to decide to have surgery. I also think that Pujols saying that he wouldn’t play through elbow pain again in 2008 is a far cry from anyone announcing that he needs surgery and will miss the 2008 season. Lets not put the cart before the horse. I want facts and I want them now.

More to come…

Tom Verducci wrote a very interesting article over at SI where he speaks about seven young pitchers who are at risk of inury in 2008. How does he know?

It’s his hypothesis that any pitcher under the age of 25 who increases his innings pitched workload by 30 innings or more, is at risk of an injury the following year, or a ballooning ERA. In 2005 and 2006 he found 17 pitchers who were at risk and ten of them blew up. With those findings, I am thinking it’s best to listen to him.

In addition to his seven pitchers (Ian Kennedy, Fausto Carmona, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tom Gorzelanny, Dustin McGowan, Chad Gaudin and Yovani Gallardo), I’ve found 3 more who are at risk. The names that I have added to Mr. Verducci’s list may not be as sexy, but they are still in big league rotations (albeit at the back end of their rotations) and may or may not be on your draft lists.

• Kyle Davies | Kansas City Royals | +53.2 - Davies threw 92.1 innings in 2006 with some major league action mixed with some innings from the minor leagues. However, in 2007 he pitched 146 innings. That’s a 36% increase and could result in bad news for people who grab Davies. Although, with a 7-15 record and a 6.09 ERA, I can’t imagine he’ll make too many draft lists. He’s penciled in as the #4 starter in Kansas City for 2008, which is another good reason to leave him alone.
• Edwin Jackson | Tampa Bay Rays | +51.2 - Jackson saw his year-to-year innings pitched go from 109.2 in 2006 to 161 in 2007. And what happened to him as he put more and more innings on his arm? He got better. His 2nd half numbers were far better than his first half as his ERA dropped almost a whole pitcher (2.75 points). But those extra innings could take a toll in ‘08. He’s avoidable in mixed leagues as the earliest he’s been taken in mock drafts is in the 16th round. His Average Draft Position is 203.72 in mixed and he’s usually the 50th starting pitcher taken in AL only leagues. Let someone else take the gamble.
• Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | +51.2 - Slowey pitched over 200 innings in 2007 which is about 25% more than he pitched in 2006. I suppose that Francisco Liriano’s arm troubles didn’t teach anyone in Twins organization a lesson about overuse. His 4-1 record and great 47:11 strikeout:walk ratio last season shows promise and upside. Let’s hope his arm can hold up. People have been gambling on Slowey in the 12th round of mixed leagues and he’s been the 48th starter off the board in AL only leagues.

The Giants gave us a night off from Barry Bonds Watch 2007 so we could catch Tom Glavine’s 300th (Congrats Tom). But more important to [tag]Chicago Cubs[/tag] fans, than their loss to the Mets, is the fact the [tag]Alfonso Soriano[/tag] came up lame trying to get to third from first last night. Early reports give Soriano owners the bad news of 2-4 weeks out due to the injury. It’s the second time this season Soriano has missed time due to a leg injury.

Rob, over at The Cub Reporter, has some interesting scenarios as to how the Cubs should handle this injury to Soriano.

*** UPDATE ***
Possible Soriano Replacements [Roto Authority]
Losing Soriano [Baseball Musings]

In an interview, this morning, on 790 The Zone’s Mayhem in the AM show, [tag]Chipper Jones[/tag] stated that he was at least a few weeks away from returning from the disabled list. Jones, who is eligible to come off the DL this Friday, hasn’t even been cleared to work out yet.

[tag]Philadelphia Phillies[/tag] closer, [tag]Tom Gordon[/tag], has left the team and returned to Philadelphia to get his right shoulder checked out. While he’s gone, the Phillies could use any of three guys to close out games. The candidates are [tag]Brett Myers[/tag], [tag]Antonio Alfonseca[/tag] and [tag]Geoff Geary[/tag]. Charlie Manuel has not named a new closer yet, he has only stated that Gordon would be away from the team throughout their next series in San Francisco.

The popular vote is probably on Myers taking over and that may be the way to go. Since becoming a reliever he’s got a 13:3 K:BB ratio, but he’s giving up a good number of hits… not the best trait in your closer. Geary’s k:BB is 12:7 and he’s giving up less hits per IP than Myers. Alfonseca might have been the front runner until he got touched up in Atlanta by an Andruw Jones walkoff homer. Plus Alfonseca’s k:bb is a horrid 4:6.

Keep an eye on how Manuel handles the bullpen this weekend. If Gordon goes on the DL, this weekend may tell us which one of these three guys is getting the job.

*** UPDATE *** Gordon was placed on the 15 DL and is eligible for a mid May return. Most people think he won’t have a closers job to come back to if Myers flourishes over the next few weeks.

[tag]Atlanta Braves[/tag] closer, [tag]Bob Wickman[/tag], has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with tendinitis in his upper right back.

“Rafael Soriano likely will fill in as closer, along with Mike Gonzalez, though manager Bobby Cox said he would play it by feel.”

It’s time to go grab Soriano and look at Gonzalez as well. As it stands right now, it’s only 15 days of save opportunities for the two of them, but remember, Wickman is 38. If this stint on the DL lasts longer, you’ll want some coverage.