Crooked Pitch

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One of the finest arts of all fantasy sports, and one of the key ingredients to fantasy victory is the concept of buying low and selling high. It is the classic guessing game of fantasy sports, and those who do it well tend to see impressive results in the fantasy world.

How can one tell though?

How can we know that someone who is batting .340 in May will go on to bat .260 in June? Who can guess when a player homers twice in May, that the same player will homer 14 times in June? And who has the crystal ball that shows which pitcher will win 5 games one month, yet only win one game the following? The answer is…NOBODY!!!!!!!!!! You can raise your chances of being good at this classic guessing game by looking at certain statistics and trends, but a good hunch or gut-feeling can go a long way.

At one third of the way through the 2009 season, let’s examine a few possible sell high candidates.

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Today’s pitch count is 15.

1. Closer by committee situations are never good in terms of fantasy baseball. That’s not stopping Tampa Bay from utilizing the strategy while Troy Percival is injured. Last night J.P. Howell got his second save of the year and R.J. Anderson wrote a post yesterday stating that Howell has some pretty exciting numbers. Better numbers in some regards then Papelbon and Rivera, to name a few.
2. You don’t see this very often. Both pitchers in last night’s Cincinnati versus St. Louis game pitched a complete game. Aaron Harang took the loss giving up three earned and striking out four. Chris Carpenter won his fourth game and has an ERA of 0.71 in six starts this season. He’s struck out 31 batters in 38 innings of work and only walked five.
3. David Wright stole his 13th base yesterday and is looking like he’s going wild on the base paths like he did in 2007 when he swiped 34. Unfortunately, he’s only jacked three home runs in the Mets’ new Grand Canyon like ballpark. Wright’s HR/F ratio of 5.8% is miserably low and show rise bringing his home run total up soon. But don’t look for him to approach 30 homers this season. With a hit rate of 44.4% I’m not even sure that his .326 batting average is safe. When his hit rate normalizes back towards his normal 34.7% we might see a huge drop in his average. Consider yourself warned.
4. Andrew McCutchen had a nice major league debut yesterday. He went 2-for-4 scoring three times and stealing a base. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues right now but that number is sure to rise shortly. He’s NL-only worthy right now and you may consider taking a mixed-league flier on him too, especially in keeper leagues.

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Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. If this is news to you, you need to climb out from under that rock and start paying attention. Baltimore Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is set to make his major league debut tomorrow night. The 23-year-old catcher is batting .305/.387/.504 with five home runs in his second year as a professional. Combining last years numbers with 2009, Wieters has accumulated 578 pro at-bats and is hitting .342 with 32 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s already owned in 69% of Yahoo! leagues without a big league at-bat. That number will skyrocket this weekend.
2. Jake Fox was called up this week and got a base hit in his first big league at-bat this season. Before his call up by the Cubs he was batting .423 with 17 home runs in 149 at-bats. Wow! He’s likely not to get a huge amount of playing time in Chicago, but if he does,and continues with those Triple-A numbers in the bigs, watch out.

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Manny Ramirez, according to the Los Angeles Times, has just been suspended for 50 games for testing positive for Performance Enhancing Drugs.

It’s time to start picking up Juan Pierre in all formats.

Update [12:35 PM ET]: This seems more Romero than A-Rod. This was just released through the players union.

“Recently I saw a physician for a personal health issue. He gave me a medication, not a steroid, which he thought was okay to give me. Unfortunately, the medication was banned under our drug policy. Under the policy that mistake is now my responsibility. I have been advised not to say anything more for now. I do want to say one other thing; I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons.

“I want to apologize to Mr. McCourt, Mrs. McCourt, Mr. Torre, my teammates, the Dodger organization, and to the Dodger fans. LA is a special place to me and I know everybody is disappointed. So am I. I’m sorry about this whole situation.” – Manny Ramirez

It’s time to begin the ranking of outfielders for the 2009 season. Today, let’s look at the top ten.

1. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians - Dude became a 30/30 guy last season after three seasons of posting 20/20 numbers. And get this, he’s only 26-years old. Triple digit runs scored and the possibility of approaching triple digit RBI make it easy to forget that Sizemore doesn’t have the best batting average.
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers - Anyone who passed on Braun before the ‘08 season worried about a sophomore slump came away disappointed. He scored more runs, hit more home runs and increased his RBI output. Even without third base eligibilty any more, he’s still one of the picks of the litter.
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets - At 31-years old people keep telling me that Delgado’s value should plummet soon. It hasn’t happened. He’s a 20/20 guy with triple digit RBI and run totals and nothing less should be expected in ‘09.
4. Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - Maybe in the ‘09 All-Star game Hamilton won’t use up all his second half home runs in the derby. Just about 2/3 of his homers came in the first half in ‘08. He posted triple digit RBI and almost hit triple digits in runs scored. His nine stolen bases are gravy. More power could show up in ‘09.
5. Manny Ramirez | Free Agent - What Manny did in the seconld half was sick last year. He can’t keep that pace up for an entire season, but a batting average above .300 with 25+ home runs and triple digit RBI and run totals should be the new definition of “Manny being Manny”.
6. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros - Lee lost close to 200 at-bats due to a shattered pinky in ‘08. He still hit 28 home runs and drove in 100. With the pinky healed expect Lee to easily lock down a line something like .300/30/100/100/10.
7. Alfonso Soriano | Chicago Cubs - Unfortunately, Soriano has been trending negatively in his playing time due to injuries. If he can solve that problem in ‘09 he could get back to his studly 30/30 like numbers.
8. Jason Bay | Boston Red Sox - Bay’s 2008 performance went a long way in showing us that his poor showing in 2007 was an outlier. Give him a full season hitting in that stacked Red Sox lineup and you’ll see better things in ‘09 then you saw in ‘08.
9. Matt Holliday | Oakland Athletics - The new team name on his uniform is the reason why Holliday is in the bottom half of this top ten list and not near the top. The move to Oakland isn’t going to turn him into a Louse, but his offensive output can’t match his days in Colorado, can it?
10. Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox - A wrist injury kept Quentin from reaching 40 home runs last season. In 480 at-bats he still drove in 100 and scored 96 runs. In ‘09 watch for Quentin to finish the breakout he started in 2008.

Every MLB team has buzz surrounding them during the off-season. For some the buzz is loud and sometimes symphonic like a massive hive. For others the buzz isn’t too much more than an annoying gnat, flying around your head.

The Colorado Rockies aren’t on either end of this spectrum, but they’ve had their fair share of off-season buzz (the hives are obviously the NY & New England teams). And with all that chatter, guess who’s name I’ve been hearing more and more of each day; Dexter Fowler.

Fowler impressed in Double-A Tulsa last season hitting .335/.431/.515 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases in 421 at-bats. His short MLB call-up didn’t show much, but it’s what he’s done since that has GM Dan O’Dowd stirring up a center field controversy/competition with Ryan Spillborghs.

Fowler showed up at Coors Field last week much thicker than when he left last September. He has added 10 to 12 pounds of muscle, the byproduct of intense training in Florida alongside Rockies prospects Eric Young Jr. and Greg Reynolds.

“I wouldn’t count out the kid. When you have young players (like) Dexter, you never know when they are going to pop,” general manager Dan O’Dowd said.

Fowler doesn’t even have an ADP yet at Mock Draft Central, but if his name keeps getting bounced around as the potential starting center fielder for the Rockies, you can bet his sleeper status (and ADP) will skyrocket.

Keep an eye on this come March.

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.