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Writing today from the comfort of his own electric chair, Josh Illes is the creator of the new blog The Pickup Artist. I call it The Pickup Artist because I plan on analyzing interesting in-season transactions throughout the baseball year. But I also have a somewhat snarkier side to me, and many times I rant for no reason at all about not being able to understand a word that Eric Young is saying. Ok, so I may just rant about that once. I’m only kidding of course. I love E.Y.! I also consider myself somewhat of a stat head and sometimes when I look at certain things in the game of baseball just a teeny bit more closely I come up with some actual relevant knowledge. Here, my friends, is an example of just one of those times…

Chicago Cubs closer

Carlos Marmol vs. Kevin Gregg

I’m not exactly sure that Lou Piniella isn’t dramatizing this unnecessarily because he’s upset with Carlos Marmol for pitching in the WBC, but let’s assume that this position is up for grabs. There are a couple very obvious advantages to each of these guys. Marmol is the better pitcher. Kevin Gregg has more closing experience. I would think you would have to go with “better pitcher” in almost every circumstance, but what else do we have?

Some interesting background on Marmol: Up until 2003 he was an outfield prospect that couldn’t hit, and then a catcher that could throw but couldn’t hit. He, and the Cubs, decided he ought to try his hand at pitching, and to say that was a wise decision would be quite an understatement. Once he made the adjustment to pitching, his career path was to eventually be a starter for the big league team. Not until 2007 did he start working out of the bullpen. Marmol is 26 years old, and throws four pitches, including a fastball that regularly rises above 95 mph.

On the flipside, Gregg is somewhat of a journeyman type of reliever who was drafted by Oakland in 1996. The A’s were developing him as a starter, but in 2002 he signed a free agent contract with the Angels, and they quickly turned him into a reliever with the hopes that he could be a Brendan Donnelly type of setup man. I’d say that was good scouting by the Angels because that’s about what he is currently. Interestingly, though, in between then and now, he spent two years with the Marlins, and they made him their closer. He was pretty good as a closer too. He was 32 for 36 in save opportunities in 2007, although last year he had 9 blown saves in 38 chances. So he is definitely trending downward. Gregg is 31 years old, also throws four pitches and his fastball touches the low 90’s.

The latest out of Cubs camp is that Piniella is supposed to make a decision between the two of them this week. Marmol has said that he is just happy to be on the team, whether it be closing or 8th inning, or whatever. Meanwhile Gregg has been very adamant that he would like to close. It sounds like they just have very different personalities, really.  Conventional wisdom here is that Marmol is the closer most of the year. When the Cubs decided to let Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, it was sort of assumed by many that they were clearing the path for Marmol to take over the job that he had earned over the past year and a half. But the Cubs signed Gregg before Wood left, which could imply that there is a lack of confidence in Marmol.

Keeping all of this in mind, from a fantasy perspective you just can’t draft Marmol as an elite closer yet.  He’s very close, but he obviously will have a short leash, with Piniella not wanting to take any chances, and Gregg there waiting to take over at the slightest misstep. Gregg, meanwhile, has become a very low-cost guy with save vulture upside; perfect for everyone who hates to draft closers.

Boston Red Sox Fifth Starter

Brad Penny vs Clay Buchholz vs John Smoltz vs Justin Masterson

Ok, so I snuck Masterson in there even though the Red Sox aren’t really considering him for a rotation spot. I’m just not sure why, though. In my opinion he has the best stuff of all of them at this point in their respective careers, so why not?

Another thing, this is actually the fourth starter position that is up for grabs. Tim Wakefield will be the fifth starter and that is already set. However, I don’t want to confuse anyone (anymore anyway) so I’ll just call it the fifth starter.

We have a nice little battle going on between the other three, though. Well, really just the first two, because if Smoltz were healthy he’d have it locked down.  He may be back by June, but don’t hold your breath. Penny has also been slowed by the same shoulder problems that limited to just 19 games last year, one of the worst years of his career. Buchholz, meanwhile, is the former no-hit prodigy that was supposed to have a breakout last season, but instead finished the year with just two wins.

So, in a battle between a has-been, a never-really-was, and a maybe-someday-if-he-ever-grows-up, I’m taking the never-really-was in Brad Penny. I saw enough of Buchholz last year that I can honestly say I would be shocked if he were to ever be considered a good major league pitcher. Penny meanwhile, when healthy, is at least that and sometimes more. If he starts 26 games, he should be able to win at least 11 of them and maybe up to 15 or so. But if Smoltz somehow makes it back, Penny will be relegated to the bullpen, as Smoltz would start.

Bottom line: Penny is your low cost, high reward guy. Buchholz is the guy you are staying away from, and Smoltz is your sleeper to stash on your DL for later on in the year.

Minnesota Twins Right Fielder

Michael Cuddyer vs Denard Span

I love the Twins this year. For all of the obvious reasons, including a very promising young pitching staff, and a dominant closer, but also because they just get it. I’ve mentioned it on my blog before, but I’ll mention it again now. They are going to have Economic Downturn Mondays (not actually what they are calling it), where they are going to price their outfield seats according to how poorly the stock market closed the Friday before. Genius, pure genius. Go Twins.

But I have to wonder when I am watching them this year, who exactly will be playing right field? Will it be the team comedian Michael Cuddyer (just listen to an interview of this guy sometime), or the young speedster Denard Span? Cuddyer was plagued by injuries last year, but until then was becoming sort of a fixture in the Twins lineup. When he went down he was replaced by Span, who came out of virtually nowhere to hit .294 with 18 steals and 6 homers in 347 at-bats.

In a perfect world, two things would happen. First, Denard Span would be able to play his natural position; center field, and secondly Michael Cuddyer would not lose his job due to injury. But Carlos Gomez will be the Twins’ center fielder, and players do, in fact, lose their jobs due to injury. I think it’s safe to say that Span has shown the Twins enough that he will be named the starter. Now the question is whether or not to try and trade Cuddyer or keep him as the backup utility guy. If I recall correctly, Cuddyer was a utility type when he first came up, able to play infield and outfield. Not sure if he would agree to go back to that, but anything is possible.

For now, I would stay away from Cuddyer altogether, but if he gets traded and gets regular PT, then he has some value in deep leagues. Span could be huge this year. Or he could regress a little. Either way, he is someone to keep an eye on and should be a good fifth outfielder in a mixed league. There’s one more thing to add to that. If Cuddyer gets traded, I would move Span up on my rankings list. The Twins would really, really have to believe in him for that to happen.

Every MLB team has buzz surrounding them during the off-season. For some the buzz is loud and sometimes symphonic like a massive hive. For others the buzz isn’t too much more than an annoying gnat, flying around your head.

The Colorado Rockies aren’t on either end of this spectrum, but they’ve had their fair share of off-season buzz (the hives are obviously the NY & New England teams). And with all that chatter, guess who’s name I’ve been hearing more and more of each day; Dexter Fowler.

Fowler impressed in Double-A Tulsa last season hitting .335/.431/.515 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases in 421 at-bats. His short MLB call-up didn’t show much, but it’s what he’s done since that has GM Dan O’Dowd stirring up a center field controversy/competition with Ryan Spillborghs.

Fowler showed up at Coors Field last week much thicker than when he left last September. He has added 10 to 12 pounds of muscle, the byproduct of intense training in Florida alongside Rockies prospects Eric Young Jr. and Greg Reynolds.

“I wouldn’t count out the kid. When you have young players (like) Dexter, you never know when they are going to pop,” general manager Dan O’Dowd said.

Fowler doesn’t even have an ADP yet at Mock Draft Central, but if his name keeps getting bounced around as the potential starting center fielder for the Rockies, you can bet his sleeper status (and ADP) will skyrocket.

Keep an eye on this come March.

To bolster weaker hitting lineups and/or to give these guys some more chances to get at-bats, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals have announced personnel changes at second base.

The last time Cardinals outfielder Skip Schumaker took ground balls on the infield was in college. But, that could change heading into the 2009 season as he’s been working out on the infield in preparation to make a run at second base in Spring Training.  If this does happen it gives the Cards a second baseman who hit .302 with eight home runs last season. That’s quite an increase in offensive output from Adam Kennedy.

Mark Teahen took ground balls last week as he may get the nod to try out for second base this spring for the Royals. The Royals are crowded at the 1B/DH spot and Teahen moving to second give him many more opportunities to get playing time. He hit 15 home runs last season in 572 at-bats while batting .255. Alberto Callaspo is on the top of the depth chart at second base currently. Teahen’s power could be a welcomed upgrade.

Both players, if they won the second sacker job for their team, would become top-15 choices on draft day for second basemen.

Apparently unhappy with the prospect of going into the 2009 season with a depth chart that starts with Geoff Blum and bounces to Aaron “f*&$in’” Boone at third base, the Houston Astros have invited 24-year-old minor leaguer Chris Johnson to Spring Training where he’ll battle for the position.

In 330 Double-A at-bats last year, Johnson hit .324/.364/.506 with 24 doubles and 12 home runs. He was promoted to Triple-A where he floundered for 101 at-bats with a .218/.252/.287 line and two doubles and a home run.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.

Jeff Clement, yesterday, homered in his final two at-bats for the Seattle Mariners and is starting to show why he should be behind the plate full-time, instead of Kenji Johjima.

Johjima is having a rough go at it this season batting .223 with only three home runs in 224 at-bats. He should have already been dropped in most mixed leagues, and remains only a reserve AL-only catcher, at best.

Clement hasn’t started off great either since his call-up, but is now starting to heat up. And if you compare the two catchers over the last week, you see that Clement is beginning to take over the role of starter.

• Clement is 6 for 22 this past week with 3 runs, 3 home runs, 4 RBI and slash stats of .273/.360/.682.
• Johjima is 0 for 9 with zeros everywhere else.

You can see that Clement is getting a lot more at-bats than Johjima. For your fantasy catcher needs, forget completely about Johjima, and begin to keep your eye on Clement in mixed fantasy baseball leagues. He should already be owned in shallow AL-only leagues and probably be signed right now in deep AL-only leagues. Also remember that Clement was hitting .337 with 14 home runs at Triple-A Tacoma before being called up. He’s only 25, he’s got the good stuff, and the Mariners are about ready to let him show it off.

In a situation I’ve been watching develop this week, it looks like Ryan Spilborghs is going to get the bulk of playing time in center field over Willy Tavares now that Matt Holliday has returned to the Colorado lineup. This will affect fantasy owners in two ways, as Tavares and his 23 steals take a huge hit, and Spilborghs becomes that elusive impact player on the waiver wire.

At 28 years old, Spilborghs is a late-bloomer who only logged 435 AB in the majors prior to this season. A .294/.381/.447 hitter in six minor league seasons, he’s also the rare player who seems to be better in the majors than he was in the minors. He’s a capable but unspectacular center fielder, and should be significantly more valuable in the lineup, and on fantasy teams, than Tavares.

After hitting .287/.337/.431 in ‘06, his rookie year, and .299/.363/.485 last season, the former fourth outfielder is batting .312/.425/.496 with a stellar 25:16 BB:K ratio in ‘08. He’s got the power and speed to be a 20/15 player in a full season, and could easily top that HR total if he can elevate the ball. In fact, the longest homerun this year (according to HitTracker) was hit at Coors by no other than Spilborghs: a 472-foot bomb to dead center field. Assuming he bats in a favorable spot in the order (and remember, he batted third with Holliday out), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a prorated .310/105/25/85/15 out of Ryan the rest of the year.  And it’s not all that unlikely he’ll do it.

If you’re in a deep league, Spilborghs is probably on someone’s roster already (if not, why are you still reading this?). However, I expect him to be an asset in nearly any league, as his terrific plate discipline, strong contact skills, and favorable lineup and home park should ensure that he consistently puts up solid numbers in Colorado. He’s even got a .951 OPS away from home this year, and a wicked playoff beard. What’s not to like? If the Rockies commit to sticking Willy Tavares in the defensive replacement/pinch runner role he was born to occupy, there could be free Bobby-Abreu-upside available to smart fantasy owners. You should be one of them.