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Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. If this is news to you, you need to climb out from under that rock and start paying attention. Baltimore Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is set to make his major league debut tomorrow night. The 23-year-old catcher is batting .305/.387/.504 with five home runs in his second year as a professional. Combining last years numbers with 2009, Wieters has accumulated 578 pro at-bats and is hitting .342 with 32 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s already owned in 69% of Yahoo! leagues without a big league at-bat. That number will skyrocket this weekend.
2. Jake Fox was called up this week and got a base hit in his first big league at-bat this season. Before his call up by the Cubs he was batting .423 with 17 home runs in 149 at-bats. Wow! He’s likely not to get a huge amount of playing time in Chicago, but if he does,and continues with those Triple-A numbers in the bigs, watch out.

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I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.

I’ve been catching up on my baseball podcasts over the past couple of days and wanted to share with you a quick note from one of my favorite shows. It has to do with Pittsburgh Pirates top prospect Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen almost made the Pirates “big club” out of Spring Training ‘08. Instead, he played the entire season in Triple-A Indianapolis hitting .283/.372/.398 with 26 doubles, nine home runs, 50 RBI, and 34 stolen bases. Many feel that McCutchen is ready for baseball in Pittsburgh on a full time basis, and some feel that he has nothing more to learn at Triple-A so whether it’s as a full-time starter or bench player, breaking camp with the Pirates is a certainty.

In a podcast recently with Baseball Prospectus Radio, Pirates Director of Player Development Kyle Stark proclaimed that McCutchen would either be an everyday starter in Pittsburgh or he would be back in Triple-A. There will be no middle ground.

“When he goes to the big leagues, it’s gonna be for good”

“If he doesn’t earn a starting job out of Spring Training, then he’ll probably start the year at Triple-A”

Those of you that play in very deep fantasy leagues or leagues that use Minor League players probably already have McCutchen stashed. But in mock drafts some of you are actually drafting him. He has an ADP of 330.88, which is well outside a 23 round draft but proves that he’s getting some looks from speculators.

Now that you know that Spring Training is an all or nothing proposition for McCutchen we’ll have to see mock drafting him is curtailed.

I got a chance recently to catch up with Geoff Young via e-mail, something that  neglected to do for far too long. There aren’t too many baseball bloggers out there with as much pull as Geoff has. He blogs about the San Diego Padres at Ducksnorts, and also writes over at Baseball Digest Daily. Geoff also writes a book every year offering “unparalleled coverage of the San Diego Padres”, it’s called Ducksnorts Baseball Annual.

Please check out Geoff’s awesome Padres coverage at any of the places listed above or follow him on twitter at @ducksnorts.

1. Who helped themselves the most with their Fall & Winter League play? Was it Eliezer Alfonso in the Venezuelan League?

Alfonso’s performance probably helped get him signed. Outfielder Mike Baxter put up terrific numbers in the AFL and could eventually surface as a reserve outfielder, although perhaps not this year.

2. With Khalil Greene out at shortstop what do the Padres plan to do at that position?

If the season started today, Luis Rodriguez, who filled in for Greene after his injury last year, would see a lot of time there. Internally, Sean Kazmar is another option, although he doesn’t have much of a bat. I’ve also heard that the Pads are interested in David Eckstein and Omar Vizquel. Whatever they end up doing, it won’t be real exciting.

3. What’s going on with Jake Peavy?

Right now — and the situation remains fluid — it looks like he’ll be the Padres Opening Day starter. A sale of the team to Jeff Moorad, assuming it goes through, should help stabilize things and hopefully keep Peavy here for a while.

4. What’s Chase Headley have in store for the Padres and fantasy owners in 2009?

I would expect modest improvements from him this year. Maybe .260-.270 with 20-25 homers.

5. Who’s taking over at closer for the Padres? Will they be there as long as Hoffman was?

I’d guess that Heath Bell gets first crack. He was dominant in 2007, but slipped last year, particularly in the second half. Bell won’t be there as long as Hoffman was because no closer holds that role for one team as long as he did. Well, except Mariano Rivera, but he and Hoffman are unique in that regard.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.