Crooked Pitch

Thank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!

Over the past few weeks, I’ve briefly mentioned Santiago Casilla here and once more here. The Oakland A’s reliever is having a fantastic year as he’s got a 0.00 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP in 17.1 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is good at 7.00 (21:3) and he’s got one win and, last night, recorded his first save.

He’s not going to be taking Huston Street’s job, just yet. But now, you have to take notice to Casilla’s fantasy baseball value, as his role has been upgraded to set-up guy and first to fill in for Street when Street needs a breather. This also may give Billy Beane ammunition to pull off one of his favorite moves; trading an established closer for talent and replacing the closer with someone cheaper from within the organization.

Keep an eye on Casilla and the state of the A’s bullpen. I’ve already recommended that you can sign Casilla for help with your ERA and WHIP. Now that he’s getting spot wins and saves he is signable in just about every fantasy format.

Update [5/7/2008 11:12 AM]: Unsung Setup Guy [Fangraphs]

One of the first statistics that I look for when deciding on a trade or a free agent acquisition that involves a relief pitcher is strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). The ratio is easy to calculate as it’s just K/BB, but it goes a long way in showing how dominant a pitcher is over the batters he faces. When considering a relief pitcher, you’d like to see more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a pretty high K:BB ratio (hopefully above 10). I’m going to share three relief pitchers with you who meet both said criteria (one might even be available in your fantasy league) and then also the other two remaining relievers who have a K:BB above 10.

Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB and More K’s than IP.

• Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox -  He has 21 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 21.00 is the highest of any reliever in baseball with at least 10 innings pitched. He’s pitched 15.1 innings of relief.
• Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - He has 15 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 15.00 ranks #2 and he’s pitched in 13.0 innings.
• Santiago Casilla | Oakland Athletics - Casilla is the one relief pitcher in this list of three that may be available in your fantasy league. He has 20 strikeouts and only two walks in 16.1 innings of work. His K:B ratio is 10.00.

Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB but fewer K’s than IP.

• Aquilino Lopez | Detroit Tigers - Lopez is an all-purpose reliever in the Tigers bullpen, but not their closer. He has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 18.2 innings. He has a K:BB ratio of 14.00.
• Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera, mathematically speaking, has a K:BB ratio of infinity since he hasn’t walked anyone all year. But, fo our purposes, lets give him a 12.00 K:BB ratio since he has 12 strikeouts and zero walks in 13 innings of work.

Here’s the second installment of my fantasy baseball top 10 closers list.  There are a few new faces as only five closers from our first top 10 closers list made it to the second.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera has eight saves in eight save opportunities. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.36. In his 11.0 innings of work he has 11 strikeouts and zero walks. These numbers are more dominant than any other closer in the game right now.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan also has eight saves in eight opportunities. His ERA and WHIP are identical at 0.90 and he’s worked 10.0 innings of relief. He has 10 strikeouts and only one walk.
3. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - You may be asking what a guy with only six saves is doing at #3 on this list. Well, this list is for fantasy value, not just save totals, and Soria is pretty valuable. He has a 13:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of work. And he also has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.36 WHIP.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Paps is the first closer with an ERA above 1.00. His is 2.25, but that was mostly a result of one bad outing against the Yankees. He has eight saves, but what is really impressive (and the reason he’s 4th on this list and not 7th or 8th) is his 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings pitched.
5. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner has six saves and a 0.00 ERA with a 0.42 WHIP. He did just blow a save last night but his ERA didn’t suffer due to a Jose Reyes throwing error. He has a 12:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings of work.
6. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has pitched in 9.0 innings and has recorded 5 saves. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.33. He has a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
7. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has six saves in 11.0 innings of work. He also has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is a little rough at 12:6, but none of those walks have hurt him yet. Don’t expect that to remain true if he keep up this K:BB pace.
8. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon hasn’t been the epitome of stability as he’s already blown two saves. But, his eight saves has him tied for third in MLB. His 2.77 ERA is a bit high, but his 0.85 WHIP and his 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio are keeping him grounded (and on this list).
9. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps has pitched in 11.2 innings in 2008 and has recorded 6 saves with a 8:2 strikeout to walk ratio. He has a 2.31 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.
10. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’s ERA is ballooned at 3.86 due to his only blown save against Cleveland. He also has a high WHIP (1.54) as he’s given up nine hits and nine walks in 11.2 innings. He is leading MLB with 11 saves, so it’s not all bad here. He typically strikes out a lot more batters than innings pitched, but that hasn’t been the case so far in 2008 with only 9 strikeouts. The only solid aspect of his game right now is his league leading save total. Most of his other stats are currently suspect.

So, your ERA is ballooning like it’s full of hot air. Instead of playing the free agent spot start game until you find a starting pitcher that you can live with, why don’t you look towards middle relievers to help out with your ERA and WHIP?

To make this work, you will want to find middle relievers who have already pitched at least 10 innings, have a knockout strikeout to walk ratio, and have sub 1.00 ERA’s and WHIP’s. These guys will help bring your ERA down, and if you’re lucky, may get you a few wins mixed in. If you also grab guys who have solid strikeouts per innings pitched ratios (close to one K per IP), you won’t see a drastic drop in your strikeout category.

Here are five guys who fit the bill, and may be available in your league on the waiver wire.

• Aquilino Lopez | Detroit Tigers - He’s notched 18.1 innings of work so far and has a dominant 14:1 strikeout to walk ratio. His ERA is 0.49 and WHIP is 0.81. And for some icing on the cake he’s already been the benefactor of two relief wins. (There are some pretty good starting pitchers out there who aren’t above two wins yet)
• Santiago Casilla | Oakland A’s - In 12.1 innings of work, Casilla has 16 strikeouts and only one walk. That’s super. So is his 0.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
• Ramon Ramirez | Kansas City Royals - Ramirez has a 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of relief work. His ERA is 0.82 AND HIS whip is 1.00.
• John Grabow | Pittsburgh Pirates - Grabow is a lefty specialist, but he’s still pitched 12 innings so far. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11:2 and he’s got an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.75.
• Jorge Campillo | Atlanta Braves - Not all the pitchers in the Braves pen are injured or performing at a sub-par clip. Campillo has a 11:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 11.1 innings of work. His ERA is 0.79 and his WHIP is 0.71.

Further fueling the fire of grand expectations, Joba Chamberlain pitched admirably last night, preserving Chien-Ming Wang’s win and providing one of the best bridges between starter and closer in baseball today.

Tuesday night Chamberlain got two raucous ovations from the 55,112 fans - the first during pregame introductions and the second when he came on to start the eighth inning to help preserve Chien-Ming Wang’s victory. Two ovations, a solid outing as the bridge to Mariano Rivera and one trademark fist pump later, Chamberlain’s first opener as a Yankee was complete.

Chamberlain struck out 2 and walked 1 in his one inning of work in the 8th.

If your league counts holds, continue to expect Chamberlain to help you dominate that category. He may even sneak a few wins in, now and again. But, we won’t find out if his high ADP was warranted until later this season when he makes the transition to the starting rotation.
photo credit: JVarghese81

There’s been lots and lots of talk about the role Joba Chamberlain would take for the Yankees in 2008. On the hunch that Chamberlain would move into the starting rotation, his stock rose. In fact, his Average Draft Position is 147.55 (12th round) with an earliest picked position of 97 (8th round). These high draft position numbers could change as the New York Post is reporting that Chamberlain will start the season as the New York Yankee set-up man.

The Yankees plan on leaving Chamberlain in the pen to start the season to keep his 2008 innings pitched at a manageable level. Then they can ease him into the starting rotation.

For those of you who drafted Joba in the middle rounds thinking he would be a starter… Sorry. His fantasy value drops dramatically with this news. No relief pitcher, without a closer’s job, is worth that high of a draft pick. And unless your league uses the holds category, Chamberlain is best left undrafted. Why?

Chamberlain is going to spend an undetermined amount of time at the beginning of the year as the 8th inning guy. Then the Yankees are going to ease him into a starters role. Expect some growing pains there. Once the relief role and the growing pains end, you’re most likely looking at the All-Star break. As good as Chamberlain might be (read: it’s still not a certainty he’ll overachieve as a starter), drafting him just for the 2nd half of the season isn’t the best draft strategy. Sign him once he hits the rotation, but not before.

Thanks to Mock Draft Central for the Average Draft Position figures!

• Update 2-12-2008 at 5:24 PM: The LoHud Yankees Blog stated that Brian Cashman wasn’t certain, yet, what Joba Chamberlain’s role will be for the ‘08 Yankees pitching staff.
• Update 2-13-2008 at 10:49 AM: Joba Chamberlain could also be sent to the minors to prepare for his changing role to the rotation. This time in the minors could last 3-4 weeks.

Here are the pre-season rankings for the American League closers.

1. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins
3. J.J. Putz | Seattle Mariners
4. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels
5. Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
6. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
7. Huston Street | Oakland Athletics
8. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
9. Todd Jones | Detroit Tigers
10. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays

Update 2-1-2008 at 10:16 PM: The complete 2008 closer rankings are being maintained at the Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings page.