Crooked Pitch

Thank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. You can also follow Crooked Pitch on Twitter @crookedpitch Thanks for visiting!

Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. If this is news to you, you need to climb out from under that rock and start paying attention. Baltimore Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is set to make his major league debut tomorrow night. The 23-year-old catcher is batting .305/.387/.504 with five home runs in his second year as a professional. Combining last years numbers with 2009, Wieters has accumulated 578 pro at-bats and is hitting .342 with 32 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s already owned in 69% of Yahoo! leagues without a big league at-bat. That number will skyrocket this weekend.
2. Jake Fox was called up this week and got a base hit in his first big league at-bat this season. Before his call up by the Cubs he was batting .423 with 17 home runs in 149 at-bats. Wow! He’s likely not to get a huge amount of playing time in Chicago, but if he does,and continues with those Triple-A numbers in the bigs, watch out.

(more…)

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.

It’s been 81 at-bats and almost four entire weeks since the Giants called up 22-year-old prospect Pablo Sandoval. In that span Sandoval has played nine games at catcher, 11 games at first base, and five games at third base. He’s also batted anywhere from third to seventh in the lineup, with most of his time spent in the five hole (29 at-bats) or the three slot (22 at-bats).  His stat line so far is .358/.375/.519 with 14 runs scored, two home runs, and 14 RBI.

Sandoval made the jump from Double-A Connecticut to San Francisco after spending 44 games there and 68 games in Advanced Single-A San Jose. His combined 2008 minor league stat line in 448 at-bats is .350/.394/.578 with 20 home runs and 96 RBI. This switch hitting multi-position player is proving that he can hit at every level.

With enough games played to qualify at catcher and first base in just about every fantasy platform. And with enough third base games to qualify in a few others, it’s hard for me to see a fantasy team right now who couldn’t use the kind of numbers Sandoval is putting out.

• Over the last month Sandoval is the third ranked catcher behind Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto.
• He’s the 13th ranked third baseman over that same period of time.
• He’s the 19th ranked first baseman over the last month.
• If you compare him to the rest of the fantasy league over the last week he’s the top ranked catcher, the #3 third baseman, and the #5 first baseman.

There’s a bit of buzz surrounding Sandoval as well.

• Jokingly, at least I think it’s a bit tongue in cheek, Grant at the McCovey Chronicles thinks that Sandoval could be the next Babe Ruth.
  

  After watching Pablo Sandoval spray the ball all over Mays Field on Sunday, I have the perfect new comparison: a switch-hitting Vladimir Guerrero who can play catcher. Wait, let me qualify that. Sandoval’s worst-case scenario is a switch-hitting Vladimir Guerrero who can play catcher. His best-case comparison is a switch-pitching, multi-position Babe Ruth.

• David Pinto, (of Baseball Musings fame) in a recent article for The Sporting News, says that fantasy baseball owners should be skeptical about Sandoval as his MLB sample size is small, but is generally high on what 2009 could look like for this youngster.
  

  Fantasy owners should be skeptical that performance over their minor league norms can last. Recent history, however, points in a different direction. Here are the numbers for three good, young catchers now established in the majors:

  Player averages tend to go down when making the transition to the majors as they face better pitching. That makes this list all the more impressive. The catchers in this group either held their own or improved over their minor league numbers.

According to the Longview News-Journal, 22-year-old Rangers’ 1B Chris Davis has been called up to the majors.  Although he doesn’t have Jay Bruce’s hype, he may have a bat that’s equally capable of serious impact in the bigs.  Here’s a look at Davis’ numbers over the last two seasons:

Davis boasts more raw power than anyone in the minors, and has improved his approach (and results) as he moved up each level. I’m very excited about this kid.

In keeper leagues, now’s the time to grab Davis if he isn’t already someone else’s property.  He’ll probably struggle a bit at first, as he’s likely to have some trouble with strikeouts in the bigs, but he also tends to learn new levels very quickly after a short adjustment period.  Unfortunately, that means it’s not that likely he’ll set the league on fire right away while Hank Blalock is recovering these next few weeks.  That might mean a trip back to AAA when Blalock returns.  That said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Texas benches or trades Blalock or Catalanotto sometime soon in order to open up this C/DH/1B logjam they’ve got with Davis, Max Ramirez, Salty, and Smoak all looking like future impact players.

For fun I’ve compiled a projection (based on his BB:K and ball-in-play numbers) for what I think Davis can do if he plays full-time the rest of the year, assuming 275 ABs:
.265/.317/.513 14DB 18HR 20:70BB:K
The Runs and RBI will depend on where he’s likely to bat in the order, but he’s got the bat to drive in a lot of runs.  This projection assumes a LD% of 20%, a FB% of 43%, and a HR/F of 20%–all good numbers, but significant drops from where he’s at in the minors this year.  Also, I hear the Ballpark in Arlington is a pretty fun place for lefty sluggers to hit.

Obviously I think Davis is going to be a pretty good power hitter, and if he can improve his plate discipline the way he has throughout his minor league career, he could be a great one.  There aren’t many opportunities to move on a fantasy player with this kind of upside, so don’t be slow about picking him up.  If there’s a young 1B in the league with Prince Fielder’s upside, Chris Davis is it.

On Friday the Cardinals called up outfielder Joe Mather, a 25-year-old minor league slugger, and sent down Chris Duncan. It’s a surprising move, as even though Duncan wasn’t hitting for power, he wasn’t playing all that badly. That, along with the standing-room-only state of the Cards outfield, has caused most fantasy experts to deem Mather not worth your time. I wouldn’t be so quick to judge.

While Mather faces an uphill battle to win playing time, he just might be the best hitter in the St. Louis outfield picture. Like Duncan, he’s a tall, late-blooming power hitter that can play the the outfield corners and 1B. Unlike Duncan, Mather plays the outfield pretty well, makes good contact, and can even run a little.

A busted tools-prospect until last year, Mather’s 2007 numbers put him on the map:

He’s even stolen 24 of 25 bases since 2005. The contact rate and K:BB ratio approaching 1:1 are the things to like the most. There are a lot of AAAA sluggers that can hit for big power in the minors, but not many of them have the discipline and pitch recognition to make it work at the next level. Mather does.

Chances are, Mather’s going to go back to AAA and Duncan will be up before long. That said, he’s started four of five games since his call up, and the development he’s shown the last two years may represent a new skill level for the toolsy former third-round pick.

In a deep keeper league, like the 20-team dynasty leagues that are becoming increasingly popular, you have to take a chance on high-reward free agents to build a winner. That means grabbing a guy like Joe Mather when you have the chance, and moving on to the next guy if things don’t pan out.