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[tag]Tampa Bay Devil Rays[/tag] second baseman, [tag]B.J. Upton[/tag] is enjoying an incredible start to the 2007 season. He’s hitting .370/.427/.667 with 5 home runs, 5 stolen bases and 20 runs batted in. However, by looking at a couple of [tag]batted ball statistics[/tag] I have come to the conclusion the Upton may be overachieving.

The first stat that scares me is his BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play). Basically, BABIP shows the percentage of every ball a batter hits in fair territory (minus home runs) that falls for a hit. It tells us how “lucky” a hitter is getting. The average BABIP is around .290. Upton’s BABIP is .532. That means that something close to 54% of the balls that are falling for hits for him right now, shouldn’t be. Let that number sink in for a minute…54%.

Another number that scares me is his contact rate. 90% is a contact rate you see in most .300 hitters. Upton’s contact rate is 64.19%. This tells me that Upton doesn’t make contact with the ball like a .300 hitter does. It’s his high BABIP that is keeping him afloat right now. What’s going to happen if his contact rate stays at 64% and his BABIP corrects itself back down to .290?

I’m not telling you to jump off the Upton bandwagon and don’t jump ship right now. But you may want to consider trading him while his value is very high. If you don’t want to trade him or if a trade isn’t available, you may want to come up with a contingency plan to put into place when Upton’s numbers start going down.

The [tag]fantasy baseball[/tag] blogosphere has been abuzz recently about the soon to be called up [tag]San Francisco Giants[/tag] pitcher [tag]Tim Lincecum[/tag]. In deep keeper leagues and NL only leagues go grab him and stash him until he makes an MLB appearance.

One of my most hyped prospects in spring training this year was [tag]Houston Astros[/tag] outfielder, [tag]Hunter Pence[/tag]. He’s been called up and is the starting centerfielder now. He’s a must sign in all formats.

Thursday April 26, 2007 marks the beginning of what Angels fans’ hope is the [tag]Brandon Wood[/tag] era. Woods is being called up, and the 8th ranked prospect in baseball hopes to make the best of it.

In 2005, in high A ball and AAA, Wood hit a sick 43 home runs and 116 RBI in 134 games. His average was .320.
In 2006, in AA, his power total dropped a bit to 25 home runs and 83 RBI in 118 games. He hit .276.

ZiPS projects Wood to hit .248/.303/.444 with 19 HR and 10 SB in 520 at bats. CHONE projections look very similar at .241/.301/.413 with 16 HR and 11 SB in 475 at bats.

Keep an eye on Wood to see if he can start thumping big league pitching like he’s tore up the minors. You also need to watch the lineup for the Angels to see how long it takes to become a full time player and where Wood fits in. Figgins should be back within the next week to 10 days, so some shifting is bound to happen.

***Update*** With Chone Figgins’ return on April 30th, Brandon Wood has been sent back down to the minors.

[tag]Felix Pie[/tag] was called up Tuesday, and made his first big league start, for the ailing Alfonso Soriano. So far, in 2 games, Pie is .200/.273/.500 with a double and a triple and an RBI. He even gunned down a go ahead run at the plate in the 10th inning in his first game Tuesday.

As great as it is for the [tag]Chicago Cubs[/tag] top organizational prospect to be up in the bigs, their OF, when Soriano becomes healthy again, will be somewhat crowded. The cubs have Soriano, Pie, Matt Murton, Cliff Floyd and Jacque Jones. That leaves the question of Pies’ remaining in Chicago, somewhat up in the air once Soriano gets back. I just read an article over at Baseball Prospectus, that gives Cub’s GM, Jim Hendry, 5 ways to trim the fat and keep Felix Pie up in the majors all season.

[tag]Troy Tulowitzki[/tag], who had been battling Clint Barmes for the starting SS job in Colorado, was given notice that he would be the man this year as Barmes was sent down to AAA Colorado Springs.

Now that we know he’s going to be an every day player, let’s look at some projections.

Tulowitzki - .278/.346/.433 12HR 7SB

His Average Draft Position in the last 291 mock drafts is 322.18, but he was only taken in 77 of those drafts. That number should drastically go up in NL only leagues as well keeper leagues.

[tag]Micah Owings[/tag], the 24 year old top [tag]Arizona Diamondbacks[/tag] pitching prospect, is looking good this spring. He needs to, as a good spring might be the only thing that will keep him in the DBacks rotation. Last season his minor league numbers looked like this:

AA 12GS 6-2 2.91ERA 74.1IP 69K 17BB
AAA 15GS 10-0 3.70ERA 87.2IP 61K 34BB

Owings is competing with 4 others for the #5 spot in the rotation. Owings has the best spring ERA of the bunch and, if the decision is based on spring numbers, seems to be the front runner. Here’s his spring line so far:

2007 3G 2GS 0-0 1.29ERA 7.0IP 8K 3BB

His K/BB in AAA Tucson is a bit scary at 1.79, but if you look at his whole year, last season it’s 2.54.

As of right now, Owings is a great keeper league option and you can take him in the late rounds of your NL only drafts.

Tim, over at Roto Authority, attended a First Pitch Forum recently and was privy to some promising [tag]Hunter Pence[/tag] comments.

“Hunter Pence is probably the best CF the Astros have. He has a decent chance of taking over once Biggio gets his 3,000.”

70 hits seems like a long time to wait for Pence’s bat in that lineup. If he makes the big club prior to taking over for Biggio I can see the Astros finding many ways for Pence to get AB’s.