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One of the finest arts of all fantasy sports, and one of the key ingredients to fantasy victory is the concept of buying low and selling high. It is the classic guessing game of fantasy sports, and those who do it well tend to see impressive results in the fantasy world.

How can one tell though?

How can we know that someone who is batting .340 in May will go on to bat .260 in June? Who can guess when a player homers twice in May, that the same player will homer 14 times in June? And who has the crystal ball that shows which pitcher will win 5 games one month, yet only win one game the following? The answer is…NOBODY!!!!!!!!!! You can raise your chances of being good at this classic guessing game by looking at certain statistics and trends, but a good hunch or gut-feeling can go a long way.

At one third of the way through the 2009 season, let’s examine a few possible sell high candidates.

(more…)

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.

Today’s pitch count is 8.

1. When the Giants signed Jesus Guzman away from the A’s, they guaranteed him an invitation to spring training. In 415 minor league at-bats last season, Guzman batted .349/.404/.545 with 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He tore up the Venezuelan League recently and if he continues tearing it up this spring the Giants will need to look at getting him some big league at-bats. As a 3B/SS he might not take too much playing time from Pedro Sandoval, who also tore up the Venezuelan League (see above link), and the mix at shortstop got even more jumbled with the addition of Edgar Renteria. There are many questions left to be answered on the left side of the Giants infield.
2. I can’t wait to see Mark Prior climbing draft boards now that the Padres have signed him to a minor league deal. How many times over the next few months are we going to read, “If Prior is healthy…”? His average draft position is sure to be on the rise, but if you’re crazy enough to draft him you deserve the angst he’ll cause you by May. Prior is best left to the waiver wire until he make a few starts at the big league level. He just isn’t a draftable commodity.
3. As someone who just drafted Alex Gordon and Billy Butler this graph showing how probably Royals hitters are to hit a certain number of home runs in 2009 is a must read. To end the suspense… Butler’s chance of hitting 20 dingers is 15.4% and Gordon’s is 35%. There are other hitters in this study, so go check it out.
4. Scott Kazmir has put on 20 pounds in the off-season, but in a good way. The extra weight is due to hitting the gym.
5. The Dodgers are expected to cut Andruw Jones today. He’s been seen around the ATL quite a bit lately. Is he the answer to Braves need for a left fiedler?
6. You can add Miguel Montero to the list of catchers the Red Sox are interested in obtaining. Montero has pretty good pop, but has yet to show he can hit for any kind of average. And he’d probably platoon with Bard anyway, so this might not vault his fantasy value as much as you’d think.
7. One of the hottest sleeper candidates last season at the pitcher position was Ian Snell. That didn’t quite work out. His name is popping up again this off-season. Pat Lackey shares with us why that is.
8. Fantasy Ball Junkie has an interesting post about the five most fantasy significant transactions so far this off-season.

There are  a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
4. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that  there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
5. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
6. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
8. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
9. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
10. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
11. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
12. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
13. Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
14. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
15. Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
16. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
17. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
18. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
19. Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
    
20. Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
21. Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
22. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
23. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
24. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
25. Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
26. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
27. Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.