Crooked Pitch

Thank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. You can also follow Crooked Pitch on Twitter @crookedpitch Thanks for visiting!

Here’s another twitter poll. Why aren’t you following @crookedpitch on Twitter?

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is to go after former top prospects who have had a rough go of things early in their careers.  With the fantasy game evolving to integrate minor league rosters and dynasty/keeper league styles, the focus on youth by fantasy GMs has exploded in recent years.  As a result, the value these GMs put on “the next big thing” can be huge:  Those who have attempted to deal for Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw without giving up a top-50 player know what I’m talking about.  On the flipside, when a young stud comes up and bombs, it’s amazing how quickly owners will abandon him to move on to the next shiny prospect.

Let’s take a look at some former top-prospect pitchers and their numbers from 2008.  Some of these guys you’ll still be able to acquire at a good value, thanks to their past struggles.  Others may provide an opportunity to move while they are still appealing to another bargain-hungry GM.

Gavin Floyd - Since entering the league in 2004, the former BA Top-10 prospect has struggled mightily.  This year, however, his 3.19ERA and 1.10WHIP over 90.1IP are making this look like a breakout season for the 25-year-old.  If you’ve got this guy, then you’re the envy of your keeper leaguemates.  Or so you hope.

Floyd’s allowing a miniscule 12.8% LD% this year, resulting in that incredibly low BABIP.  A pitchers’ opponent LD% and BABIP are not repeatable skills, they are luck-based, primarily.  This is not sustainable.
Verdict: Cash in on Floyd before he hits the mother of all corrections.

Zack Greinke - After dropping a 3.97ERA and 1.17WHIP on the major leagues at age 21, Greinke was seen by many as a future ace.  Most of us know his backstory of mental issues by now, so suffice it to say he hasn’t come through on those projections.  After a spectacular April, he’s struggled a bit in May and June.

Looking at xFIP, it would seem Greinke’s been lucky with his 3.40ERA.  However, his control is good, and he’s striking guys out at a decent clip.   He’s also averaging over 6.6IP a start, which helps in the Win dept.  Despite the slight flyball tendencies, there’s a lot to like.
Verdict: Greinke’s not coming cheaply if you don’t have him, but I wouldn’t sell high either.

Edwin Jackson - Another guy who broke into the majors early, Edwin has struggled since his debut at 20 years old.  After suffering through years of arm problems and inconsistency, he’s looking like a league-average starter for the first time.

The one thing Edwin has going for him is a power sinker.  He’ll always keep the ball on the ground well, but there really haven’t been any signs of improvement in his numbers.  He’s missing fewer bats than ever, without much improvement in control.
Verdict: Hold.  He doesn’t have Floyd’s gaudy numbers, so he’s probably worth more to you than you’ll get in trade.  Watch the K:BB for improvement.

Andrew Miller - The #6 pick in the 2006 draft was expected to move quickly to the majors, and do well once he got there.  The first part happened, but Miller has struggled since he hit the bigs.

I’m excited about Miller as a buy-low opportunity.  He’s been inconsistent this year, but his xFIP shows that his 5.07ERA has been a lot of bad luck.  He has also been getting more ground balls lately, and is showing improvement over last year in every category–even though his WHIP and ERA make him look like a bust.
Verdict: Buy if you can.  Control may be an issue for a while, but he’s a Brandon Webb clone.

Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey’s fastball has always landed him high on prospect lists, and in the minds of fantasy GMs.  His poor control and lack of any decent secondary offerings have limited him so far.  However, there are still fans out there for what Pelfrey’s bringing.

I am not one of those fans.  Pelfrey’s groundball tendencies are encouraging, but his lack of control and K’s show that his 4.30ERA isn’t for real.  A good breaking pitch could make him an above-average starter, but there are a lot of relievers out there you could say the same thing about.
Verdict: Sell, if you’ve got an interested buyer.

Anybody I missed that you’d like to talk about?  This is an area where you can do really well with pitchers if you make some smart risks.  Next time we’ll look at how some post-hype hitters are doing, so email me if you’ve got any questions, comments, or suggestions.

One of my favorite strategies in deep leagues is to run the best four starters I can get out there every game, and fill in the rest with high-K middle relievers. I’d rather have a guy who gives me killer ratios for 75 innings than a mediocre starter who gives me 200 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. You’ll usually win the ratio categories with this strategy, and if you’re far enough ahead in those, you can always pick up the occasional spot starter if you need a W or some Ks.

Dominant middle relievers can be had on the wire every year if you know what to look for. Last year Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Rafael Betancourt could be picked up for free in nearly every league, and were three of the better fantasy pitchers in the game. Yahoo ranked Betancourt as the 19th(!) most valuable pitcher in ‘07, Bell the 24th, and Marmol the 39th. I grabbed both Betancourt and Marmol off the wire during the season in 20-team dynasty leagues. I missed my chance on Bell. With relievers, the stats to look at are BB:K (command), K/9 (dominance), and possibly GB% (HR prevention). ERA and hits allowed are too volatile in the small amount of innings a reliever pitches to pay too much attention to. BIP numbers, (like GB%, FB%, LD%) are pretty worthless until there’s a decent sample to look at as well.

Everyone’s seen the starts by guys like Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla, and Hong-Chih Kuo in our leagues this season, so let’s look at four guys you should still be able to find on your waiver wire:

Jared Burton: Burton made a bit of a splash last year with a BABIP-assisted 2.51 ERA in 43 IP, most after the All-Star break. This year, he’s doing it for real, with drastically improved control and K-rate. Last year Reds manager Pete Mackanin wanted to give Burton an audition at closer when David Weathers needed a rest, but who knows what the situation is now with Dusty and Frankie Cordero in the mix.
2008 Stats: 27.2IP 30H 10ER 8BB 29K (more…)

I’ve been keeping my eye on this for a week now, but it was Jason from our Crooked Pitch fantasy baseball leagues’ Tigers team that scooped me. Johnny Cueto, the Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher is now, finally, available in Yahoo. Go grab him, if you’d like.

And, here’s why you might like to give him a flier. Especially in deep leagues.

• He had a 170:34 K:BB ratio last season in High-A, AA & AAA ball, pitching 161.1 innings.
• He has a mid 90’s fastball and a plus slider to go along with it.
• He’s a rookie and we all know how Dusty Baker feels about rookies. “He’s like against it… right?” (Can you name the obscure movie reference?)
• You just don’t have enough sleeper picks already on your team.

Thanks for the heads-up Jason. Now, enjoy his services!

If you’ve been paying attention to spring box scores from the San Francisco Giants club, you may have noticed Eugenio Velez, a 26 yeal old rookie who’s hitting .340/.353/.511 with a double, two triples, and a home run. Most importantly he’s stolen 9 bases in 16 games. Velez is turning heads, and causing Giants decision makers to scratch theirs.

Manager Bruce Bochy would agree. After the Giants’ 11-6 exhibition victory over the Diamondbacks, Bochy declared Velez has a real shot of making the 25-man roster. Not only as a bench player but as someone who “might force the issue, too,” meaning get in the lineup on occasion.

“If we want a lineup with speed in there, he gives you another dimension,” Bochy said. “This kid is fun to watch.”

• In 2006 in Single-A Augusta, Velez hit .315 with 14 home runs and 64 stolen bases.
• In 2007 in 114 games of combined AA, AAA and MLB playing time, Velez stole 58 bases while hitting .296.

If Velez makes this club out of Spring Training, but doesn’t earn a starting spot, you should keep an eye on him and see if does earn his way into a starting role. If he surprises and starts from day one, he’s going to be one of those players who could single handedly vault your fantasy team to the top of the stolen base leader board.