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I’ve been keeping my eye on this for a week now, but it was Jason from our Crooked Pitch fantasy baseball leagues’ Tigers team that scooped me. Johnny Cueto, the Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher is now, finally, available in Yahoo. Go grab him, if you’d like.

And, here’s why you might like to give him a flier. Especially in deep leagues.

• He had a 170:34 K:BB ratio last season in High-A, AA & AAA ball, pitching 161.1 innings.
• He has a mid 90’s fastball and a plus slider to go along with it.
• He’s a rookie and we all know how Dusty Baker feels about rookies. “He’s like against it… right?” (Can you name the obscure movie reference?)
• You just don’t have enough sleeper picks already on your team.

Thanks for the heads-up Jason. Now, enjoy his services!

People talk about the Juan Pierre signing being the worst in history (and its certainly worth consideration), but the Barry Zito signing just has to blow it out of the water.

I’m no Sabean, but you’d think he’d have a big ol’ document solely focused on “future rosters”, where he has his players under contract, when they’re rolling off, what free agents are available and in what years, what in-house prospects are expected to hit the bigs, etc. Those lists would change over time, but then at any given moment you’d be able to see what your current in-house roster would look like (roughly) and what FA targets would be available to fill in the gaps.

So, assuming Sabean has more than a one-year plan (he must, right?), then how could he not see this 100 loss team coming? How could he not see that when signed Zito, Molina, Roberts, Durham, et al in 2006, this would be most likely be his best lineup in 2008? I know you can’t predict rosters exactly, but I’m sure Sabean can get close since he has the time and resources.

I’d love to see an exercise where someone at a big site like Baseball Prospectus goes back to the day that Zito was signed and plays the game we all call *Sabeanomics*. That is, take the Giants roster on the day Zito was signed, and the $ you were going to spend on Zito, don’t use it on Zito, and see what kind of roster you could put together for two-years-hence, 2008. I’d almost have to believe that anybody…ANYBODY…could put together a roster that produces a lineup that’s just as good as the one the Giants played yesterday. Quick and dirty…

Ted Lilly for 4 years and 40 million.
Gil Meche for 5 years and 55 million.
Aubrey Huff for 3 years and 20 million.

(Boy 126 million just ain’t worth what it used to be)

Now granted, their lineup now would still be crap. And I only took a quick look at the 2006 FA list. But in Lilly and Meche, you’d have two tradeable assets at the 2008 deadline. And if Im Sabean, and I know that when Bonds leaves my team is going to suck, why not sign pitchers in 2006 that I know I can trade in 2008 when Bonds leaves and the Giants pretend to contend for 3 months. Hell who knows, with Cain, Lincecum, Lilly and Meche all pitching in SF, your team might not even be that bad?

I mean, the Giants don’t even have one single flippin’ player in their lineup who gets drafted in a standard 5×5 Yahoo or ESPN fantasy league. That’s gotta be a record. And no…Aaron Rowand’s mom doesn’t count…
photo credit: mbonocore

Scott Kazmir, the Tampa Bay Rays’ finest pitcher, was diagnosed with a left elbow strain earlier in the week. The 24-year old ace experienced pain in his pitching arm before Tuesday’s intrasquad game. With pain that felt “like a hyperextension,” how will this minor injury affect the pitcher’s fantasy value in 2008?

Minimally. Kazmir is a must-have for fantasy leagues that “record and award” points for strikeouts. In the 2007 Regular Season, the former-Met led the American League with 239 strikeouts. But, since he is playing for the infamous Tampa Bay Rays, I wouldn’t be confident in counting on him for wins. Depending on the configuration of your league, I would try drafting him earlier on around the Seventh Round. He should be an integral component of your fantasy baseball success in 2008.

Kazmir said that he will be resting for two weeks due to his recent diagnosis. The MRI results claimed that there was “no serious injury.” Once he recovers from this minor injury, he should be back to his old ways of striking out unlucky batters - I hope.

Tom Verducci wrote a very interesting article over at SI where he speaks about seven young pitchers who are at risk of inury in 2008. How does he know?

It’s his hypothesis that any pitcher under the age of 25 who increases his innings pitched workload by 30 innings or more, is at risk of an injury the following year, or a ballooning ERA. In 2005 and 2006 he found 17 pitchers who were at risk and ten of them blew up. With those findings, I am thinking it’s best to listen to him.

In addition to his seven pitchers (Ian Kennedy, Fausto Carmona, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tom Gorzelanny, Dustin McGowan, Chad Gaudin and Yovani Gallardo), I’ve found 3 more who are at risk. The names that I have added to Mr. Verducci’s list may not be as sexy, but they are still in big league rotations (albeit at the back end of their rotations) and may or may not be on your draft lists.

• Kyle Davies | Kansas City Royals | +53.2 - Davies threw 92.1 innings in 2006 with some major league action mixed with some innings from the minor leagues. However, in 2007 he pitched 146 innings. That’s a 36% increase and could result in bad news for people who grab Davies. Although, with a 7-15 record and a 6.09 ERA, I can’t imagine he’ll make too many draft lists. He’s penciled in as the #4 starter in Kansas City for 2008, which is another good reason to leave him alone.
• Edwin Jackson | Tampa Bay Rays | +51.2 - Jackson saw his year-to-year innings pitched go from 109.2 in 2006 to 161 in 2007. And what happened to him as he put more and more innings on his arm? He got better. His 2nd half numbers were far better than his first half as his ERA dropped almost a whole pitcher (2.75 points). But those extra innings could take a toll in ‘08. He’s avoidable in mixed leagues as the earliest he’s been taken in mock drafts is in the 16th round. His Average Draft Position is 203.72 in mixed and he’s usually the 50th starting pitcher taken in AL only leagues. Let someone else take the gamble.
• Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | +51.2 - Slowey pitched over 200 innings in 2007 which is about 25% more than he pitched in 2006. I suppose that Francisco Liriano’s arm troubles didn’t teach anyone in Twins organization a lesson about overuse. His 4-1 record and great 47:11 strikeout:walk ratio last season shows promise and upside. Let’s hope his arm can hold up. People have been gambling on Slowey in the 12th round of mixed leagues and he’s been the 48th starter off the board in AL only leagues.

Let’s take a look at the pre-season fantasy baseball rankings for the top 20 starting pitchers in the National League.

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves

As we’re only 14 days from pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, here are the eary rankings of American League starting pitchers.

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

We’re past the torture! Johan Santana has finally been traded. No more speculation about who’s going to get him, for how much and most annoying, when. The New York Mets won the bidding war.

Now the question, with real fantasy baseball implications, is how well will Johan pitch as a Met. We have a few more months to argue about that, but Nate Silver, over at Baseball Prospectus, just took an early shot at what Santana’s numbers could look like in Shea Stadium versus the Metrodome.

An extra win and a 0.38 drop in ERA should excite Met’s fans and fantasy GM’s. Santana is already valued as the top fantasy pitcher in baseball. His current Average Draft Position at Mock Draft Central is 17.20 and he’s gone as early as #3 and as late as #26. I’m not sure that the trade to the Mets will increase his draft position, but it does make him a bit more valuable for owners who already drafted him or would normally draft him early on. It will be interesting to keep an eye on his ADP over the next few weeks to see what kinds of changes occur.

Welcome to the National League, Mr. Santana.

• UPDATE, 1-30-08 at 10:28: Mike Harmon thinks that Johan Santan’s line could look like, 21 wins, 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 254 strikeouts. Wow! That’s crazy talk man…
• UPDATE, 1-30-08 at 10:38: This should probably be looked at in a post of its own, but Eric of Fake Teams fame looks at the other winner in the Santana deal. Could Carlos Gomez really steal 40+ bases? We’ll cover that later…