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There was a bit of a delay getting the latest Fantasy Five out. So, I’ll include a sixth question for you, to make up for it. The weeks theme is MLB teams. I’ve asked 2 questions of 3 bloggers about their specific MLB teams. Let me know what you think of the team theme this week. If you like it, I may mix it in on a regular basis.

[tag]Atlanta Braves[/tag]
1. Ryan Langerhans seems to be losing a bit of playing time in LF and Diaz isn’t really stepping up with his opportunities to take the job from him. Is either one of these guys the answer in LF? (UPDATE - This question was asked and answered prior to April 29th trade)

Will Schaffer (Chop-n-Change): There is still a platoon out in left, the reason Langerhans isn’t playing as much is that the Braves have faced an absurd number of lefties early in the season. As far as production, they have both been god awful and Diaz looks a lot more vulnerable now that it seems the scouting report has gotten around. Langerhans has some more value to the team because he is great in the field while Diaz is awful, but neither of these guys is the answer. There are a couple options this season for left. A quick fix would be Gregor Blanco, who brings good defense, the ability to get on base, and some speed but a complete lack of power. He is hitting in Richmond and the only one you can really consider to be called up right now. A bit later on, Brandon Jones could make his way up or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the Braves top prospect, could be converted to the outfield with his athleticism and McCann in front of him in Atlanta. Those two probably wouldn’t get a shot until at least the All-Star break though.

2. Can you impart some Braves wisdom on us? Tell us about a future transaction, some player personnel issue, or some hidden fantasy nugget that can give us a leg up in our fantasy leagues.

Will Schaffer (Chop-n-Change): Here is a great bit of Braves wisdom. Always trust in Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz. For those of you who want something a bit more concrete, the Braves are probably going to make a couple moves soon. I think we’ll see Trey Hodges and Phil Stockman up from Richmond soon. Hodges is a vet starter, who won’t have any fantasy value, but is probably going to get a shot to prove he can pitch better than Mark Redman (won’t be hard to do). Also, Lance Cormier should be coming off the DL soon and Blaine Boyer could make a big impact in the pen once he comes back from injury. For fantasy advice, if you have a shot to pick up Francoeur, take it. This is not a fluke, his plate discipline is light years ahead of ‘06, not only in the number of walks, but he is waiting for pitches he likes now instead of just swinging. Another couple of little fantasy nuggets, if Blanco does get the call, he could be a cheap source of steals for someone a bit down in that area. One pretty big story has been Willy Aybar. His agent says he is having drug problems and teammates, his brother Erik on the Angels, Vlad Guerrero, Braves management, and even his own Mother have tried but been unsuccessful in contacting him. I would have told you to keep him in mind in keeper leagues as a super utility guy that could have shifted to a starting role, but his career with the Braves and in pro baseball is in jeopardy.

[tag]Milwaukee Brewers[/tag]
1. Lots of folks really hyped Corey Hart this off season. And we have been told to expect a 20/20 type season in ‘07. Is Corey Hart the real deal?

Jeff Sackmann (Brew Crew Ball): Yep, he’s the real deal. He’s not going to get 600 ABs this year because he’s gotten stuck in a three-way platoon with Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench, but he’s going to be good starting right now. He’s very fast and a high-percentage base stealer, and he even bunts for base hits. He’s not a future star of the Fielder/Weeks/Braun category, but he has a shot at a Jenkins-type peak.

2. Can you impart some Brewers wisdom on us? Tell us about a future transaction, some player personnel issue, or a hidden fantasy nugget that can give us a leg up in our fantasy leagues.

Jeff Sackmann (Brew Crew Ball): Yovani Gallardo is going to be up sooner than you think. He’s not going to be an ace-caliber pitcher immediately (maybe not ever), but he could be a #3-type guy right away. While there isn’t a clear path into the rotation for him, I’d be shocked if he’s still pitching in Nashville on July 1st.

[tag]New York Mets[/tag]
1. John Maine seems to be doing fine and Mike Pelfrey isn’t. Is this what you expected out of them?

Jason (Faith and Fear in Flushing): I have Glavine, Oliver Perez and Pelfrey on my fantasy team. (That many Mets is a little nuts, but it wasn’t on purpose — I thought Perez and Pelfrey had some upside compared to the other pitchers left in the pool.)

I did not expect Maine to do as well as he’s done so far — he has dramatically changed his repertoire and approach, proof that he’s a smart guy and has really taken to Rick Peterson’s advice. (Though we don’t like to admit it, most baseball players are pretty resistant to advice.) I do think he’ll have further lessons to learn — right now the league is still responding to an out-of-date scouting report on him, and that will change.

Pelfrey is very young — if the Mets had their druthers, he’d still be learning in New Orleans. That said, he’s relying too much on a fastball that’s awfully straight, and needs to learn to use his other pitches the way Maine has. Should he doubt the value of listening to Peterson, he has object lessons in why he should in Glavine, Maine and Perez. I don’t think Pelfrey’s going to generate a lot of Ks while going through these growing pains, which hurts his fantasy value. Still, he’ll get the ball every fifth day or so on a 100-win team with a terrifying offense. That ought to be good for some wins and more job security than he’d get elsewhere. I just hope that job security doesn’t kill my ERA and WHIP.

2. Can you impart some Mets wisdom on us? Tell us about a future transaction, some player personnel issue, or some hidden fantasy nugget that can give us a leg up in our fantasy leagues.

Jason (Faith and Fear in Flushing): The Mets aren’t particularly mysterious right now — the roles are set and there aren’t too many questions beyond the fifth starter and the middle relief, so there’s not a lot to look for beyond the obvious. It’s valuable to understand the team’s philosophy: Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya tend to give veterans a lot of time to prove themselves or stop proving themselves, and they don’t usually bring young players up if they’re not going to get used. So if you own Sean Green or Jose Valentin and they hit a skid, don’t expect them to get benched or lose their jobs for a good while. Correspondingly, if Lastings Milledge, Philip Humber or Carlos Gomez are called up, expect them to do more than just fill in.

The early returns on Pedro Martinez’s comeback are good — he might be worth plucking off the DL in June if you can spare the spot. Finally, I would not be surprised to see Joe Smith get increasingly important assignments as the year goes on. As a middle reliever he’s pretty much useless in fantasy leagues right now, but keep an eye on him.

Many thanks to the three guest experts we welcomed for this installment of The Fantasy Five. Please check out their blogs.

Will Schaffer is a Braves reporter for Chop-n-Change, the official Atlanta Braves team blog on MVN. While you’re checking his blog out, ask him how the Langerhans trade effects his answer that he gave me.

Jeff Sackmann consults for several major league teams. He runs the websites MinorLeagueSplits.com, CollegeSplits.com, BrewCrewBall.com and BeyondTheBoxscore.com, and contributes to The Hardball Times and the fantasy magazine Heater. He welcomes comments via e-mail.

Jason is a life long Mets fan and publishes the blog Faith and Fear in Flushing. His expert insight into the New York Mets entertains tons of fans who frequent his blog.

If you would like to see past issues of [tag]The Fantasy Five[/tag], check them out here.
The Fantasy Five: Issue #1
The Fantasy Five: Issue #2

Welcome back to the second installment of our fantasy baseball Q & A session, [tag]The Fantasy Five[/tag]. We’ve got 5 more questions this week and 4 baseball experts to impart wisdom on you all; that’s 2 more experts than we had for last week’s Fantasy Five. Once again, if you have questions you would like our panel of experts to answer for you, send me an e-mail.

1. When you are setting your daily lineup of hitters, does which pitcher they are facing come into play, or are the hitters’ stats the main thing you go by? Is your answer different for leagues with only weekly lineup changes?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I generally stock my bench with prospects and Roger Clemens, limiting my matchup flexibility. I pretty much go with my full 2007 projections when deciding who to start, and use matchups to make close calls. For example - start Adam Lind or Elijah Dukes tonight? I went with Dukes because he’s facing Steve Trachsel and Lind is facing Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): Typically in a weekly-change league I will put the best hitter available into my lineup. If I’m in a deep daily-change H2H league though, I like to have two players, a power guy and a BA/SB guy, that I’ll swap in and out of my UT spot depending on what stats I need. The opposing pitcher doesn’t usually come into play for me unless I’m trying to decide between two similar hitters of equal talent–then I’ll look for every advantage (opposing pitcher, ballpark, spot in lineup) I can.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): I tend to play my best guys, regardless of who they are facing. Most of the time, I play in fairly deep leagues that are at least 12 owners. Because of that, usually your starters are the best on your team and starting anyone else is not worth the risk. The only time I would look at matchups is in the event of a major slump or if I had two players that were virtually identical from a numbers standpoint.

2. In leagues where you can only change your lineup on a weekly basis, is a mid-tier pitcher who is starting twice that week better to place into your lineup than a top-tier pitcher who will only pitch once?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I’d stick with a top tier guy once. Throwing Kyle Lohse out there just because he’s going twice is a risky move. Not that I have anything against Lohse.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): Yes. A top-tier starter is still going to have to have a very good game to match the value a two-start pitcher will give you. The extra Ws and Ks you’ll get are worth more than whatever ratio help the better starter might give you. That’s assuming “mid-tier starter” means a 3.80ERA, 1.28WHIP guy, an Ian Snell/Javier Vazquez type, rather than a guy that can really hurt your ratios.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): I would always start my best pitchers with one start over a mid tier with two starts. Assuming it’s head to head, starting that non ace type pitcher could yield two losses and pretty much kill you in that area.

3. What key hitting stats can show me if a player is going to get hot or cool off soon?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): I have been looking at contact and line drive rates. Those seem to be solid underlying indicators of how the guy is swinging. Walk rate is another - tons of walks usually means good things are coming.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I always watch B:KK rate and overall strikeout rate to judge whether a batter’s hitting over his head or if he’s really become a better hitter. Extra base hits are a good quick indicator as well, because there’s a lot of luck involved in hitting singles. If a player’s on a hot streak because he’s hitting more doubles and HRs, I’m more likely to believe in him. Contact rate *(AB-K)/AB* is a good dirty tool that’s been getting some attention recently–I like to use that when looking at batting average as well.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): Streaks come and go. They are very hard to predict. I tend to not try to predict them. If I had to go with some stats though, I would look at pitches per plate appearance. If a player is seeing a lot of pitches, he’s going to get something to hit eventually. If he’s pressing, he’s probably swinging early.

4. What is a good source for minor league call ups, both when they happen and projections for who’s coming up next?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): Personally, I just hit the books for call up evaluation. Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook plus Deric McKamey’s Minor League Analyst tell me all I need to know about the guy scouting-wise. Then I’ll check his PECOTA and ZiPS and add my own intuition.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I visit John Sickels’ site, minorleagueball.com, every day. The community there is a fantastic resource for anything minor league related, and won’t let a hot prospect or impending call up go by without a post. Just keeping up on who is doing well in the minors will also tell you who’s going to see the majors soon, so I like to bookmark prospects on MILB.com and follow their statistical progress. I recently wrote an article on who you can expect to make their major league debuts this year and posted about Ryan Braun’s hot start meaning he could get the call soon, so I guess you could call my site a good source too.

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): Some of the best sources are bloggers. They follow the team like no one else. I would advise book marking one blogger from each team that appears to be reputable and keep an eye on their work. Another good resource is Rotoworld and the old fashioned way of hard work looking through box scores from AAA & AA.

5. With their slow start, did the Cubs waste all that off season money they dished out? Are there some hidden fantasy gems on the Cubs roster?

Tim Dierkes (Roto Authority): Two weeks into the season, I don’t think we can say. It mostly looks bad because Soriano’s not doing much yet. There’s no reason to think he won’t slug .520 this year. 5 quality starts in 6 tries from Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis is very encouraging. Hidden fantasy gems…maybe a few but the Cubs are a well-known team. If you can pry a Zambrano or Michael Barrett away at a discount because of slow starts, go for it. Ryan Theriot is playing quite a bit and running a lot.

Sean Salsbery (Warning Track Power): I didn’t like many of the Cubs’ moves this offseason, but you have to admire the effort. I’m a Mariners fan, and it’s tough to follow a team that consistently passes on top free agents because they don’t want to pay top dollar, and then ends up throwing big mid-range contracts at bad players. At least the Cubs are willing to shell out big bucks for the players they want.

As for hidden fantasy gems, I think Matt Murton could hit .300/90/20/85/5 this year, which can help a lot of fantasy teams. Felix Pie also has the tools to be a great fantasy player, but I’d like to see him improve on the base paths. His bat looks great for a kid his age. I don’t think Rich Hill can be considered a “hidden” anything after all the pre-season hype he got, so I’ll say that ***Mike Wuertz is a sleeper to close who can help your ratios while you wait.**

Joe Aiello (VFTB Baseball Network): By no means did the Cubs waste money. When you consider the players that Jim Hendry brought in this year, virtually all of them have contributed. The team is going to hit and hit for power. Right now, the season is early. If you’re looking for a hidden gem, look into Ryan Theriot or Felix Pie. Both players are guys that are very close to working their way into becoming everyday starters because of their hustle and speed.

Rob G. (The Cub Reporter): I’m sure Jim Henry, Lou Piniella and all Cubs fans were hoping for a faster start by the ball club but it’s far too early to settle on a verdict on whether the Cubs offseason spending plan was a bust or not. As for fantasy gems, if you haven’t heard of Rich Hill yet, you should read more. He’s efficient with his pitches, strikes out hitters and the Cubs should be able to provide the run support for him to rack up the wins. Ryan Theriot is a Lou Piniella favorite and should eventually qualify up to five different positions (2b, 3b, LF, RF & SS) and provide a decent batting average and those coveted steals. CF prospect Felix Pie was recently called up when Alfonso Soriano went down with a hamstring injury and it’s unclear whether he’ll stick or not, but he’s a talented player with tons of potential. Ryan Dempster seems to be back to his 2005 form and if you’re in a deep league that requires a dip into middle relievers, Michael Wuertz has been racking up K’s at an astronomical rate. If Wade Miller doesn’t turn his season around quickly, Angel Guzman could step into the rotation. Once upon a time, Guzman was a highly heralded prospect who got derailed by injuries, but it appears his stuff is back and if anything should be a good source for strikeouts.

I’d like to thank our panel of baseball experts for participating in the second installment of The Fantasy Five. Here’s a little bit about them:

Tim Dierkes is one of the best known names in the fantasy baseball blogosphere. He publishes one of the most popular blogs out there; Roto Authority as well as MLB Trade Rumors. Reading his daily content will surely cause a one, maybe even two position rise in you roto league standings.

Sean Salsbery is a contributing writer for Fantasy Baseball Express and publishes his own blog, Warning Track Power. Keep an eye on Sean’s writing for superb fantasy baseball advice.

Joe Aiello is the founder of one of the more influential Chicago Cubs blogs out there, The View From The Bleachers, which has been around since 2003. He also publishes two other blogs for his VFTB Baseball Network, Future Rays and Big League Baseball Report.

Rob G. is The Cub Reporter for the impressively large Most Valuable Network. His insight into the Chicago Cubs is fantastic and should be read on a regular basis.

The Fantasy Five is a new weekly question and answer session where I (or you the readers) will pose 5 questions to baseball experts around the blogosphere. If you would like a question answered in one of the next Fantasy Five’s, shoot me an e-mail.

1. What key pitching stats can help me find waiver wire help?

Mike Kuchera (Fantasy Baseball Express): I always look for pitchers with low WHIP. Low WHIP means they are tough to hit, can find the strike zone, and know how to pitch. Most fantasy managers do not pay attention to WHIP and it can hurt your team.

Jeff Kuhn (The House That Dewey Built): I look at K/9, BB/9, and K:BB to help parse the field a little bit. Then, depending on categories, I look at team quality (will help with wins), team defensive efficiency (to help with WHIP and ERA), and then go with past track record. Then you just go with the gut. The positive to this strategy is being able to dig out guys like Aaron Harang in May last year, and not be bogged down by the overly analytical.

2. When do you bench a cold superstar for a hot unproven player? Or do you?

Mike Kuchera (Fantasy Baseball Express): You can’t really bench a superstar. Imagine being the guy last season who benched or traded Aramis Ramirez or Mark Teixiera after the All-Star break. You have to stick with your superstars, unless its July and they are hitting .167. Best bet, try to trade them to someone who still values them and thinks they will turn it around. More times than not, a superstar will salvage at least some part of a season whether its September or the whole second half.

Jeff Kuhn (The House That Dewey Built): There is no real answer to this question. If you have a guy like Vlad Guerrero struggling, it would be foolish to bench him in favor of a less good player. I tend to look at player value as absolutes…if a guy is a superstar, he’s a superstar. However, I also have no problem drafting, or picking up a young guy rather than an old one that might be more established. I waited until the 9th round of my keeper league this year to grab Ian Kinsler, rather than either overpaying to get Chase Utley or overdrafting a guy like Robinson Cano.

3. Is Dice K really that good?

Mike Kuchera (Fantasy Baseball Express): If one team is willing to pay over $50 Million just to talk to a guy, yes, he is really that good!

Jeff Kuhn (The House That Dewey Built): As good as he was the other day? No, but that should really be self-evident, since we’d be looking at Pedro Martinez II. But he can throw five pitches at multiple arm angles for strikes, doesn’t get shaken on the mound, and is generally just very studly. I’ll have a better handle on him at the end of April, and even better still by the All-Star break. But he really does have the potential to do something special.

4. How much should I worry about innings limitations or positional limitations this early in the season?

Mike Kuchera (Fantasy Baseball Express): You can’t really worry about it much early on, but try not to overdo it with mediocre pitchers, and by mediocre I mean guys that give you 5-6 IP, 2-3 K, and 3-5 ER per start. They kill your averages and eat up useless innings from your limit. Use up your innings with solid pitchers and young players who have the potential to strike out 5+, keep the WHIP down and win a game or two, then keep an eye middle relievers who get the job done, which so far are guys like Zumaya, Broxton, Shields, Aardsma, and Bruney, guys who will get you those 2-3 K per game and keep your ERA/WHIP down. You get the same K rate as a mediocre pitcher but deliver help to your ERA/WHIP.

Jeff Kuhn (The House That Dewey Built): I’ve actually never played in a league with a strict innings limit or positional limits, but I wouldn’t ever become obsessed with them. As an aside, I think they are foolish as an idea…if you have a 1400 inning limit, and draft Roy Halladay, he’s going to eat up about 18% of your innings, which limits your pitching staff. Doesn’t that seem silly?

5. It’s early in April. Is it too early to start making serious free agency moves or big trades?

Mike Kuchera (Fantasy Baseball Express): Its only been a week. Let your team work itself out a bit. You shouldn’t be making big trades until at least May. Give your team time. The only reason you should be making moves now is to fill holes or stash young players, that’s it! No holes to fill? Then make moves only to upgrade your current players. Dont make a move just for the sake of making a move. Do it because you need to. Once May comes around, re-evaluate your team and then proceed from there.

Jeff Kuhn (The House That Dewey Built): I’m of the school there are no real serious free agency moves, either your filling an injury, or you have a clearly better player available at the expense of a crappier player. Trades are another story, and I try to be pretty active with trades early, because every league has owners that are impatient with a David Ortiz hitting .150 through the first few weeks. As the season goes on, trading becomes less important than free agency because the ability to pick players off other teams gets trickier. Keeper leagues lead to the teams at the top getting ripped off anyway, so I try to get my trading done by June 1st.

Mike Kuchera is the mastermind behind Fantasy Baseball Express and his The Fantasy Man blog. You can also listen to the The Fantasy Man Show Baseball Podcast, which you can find at iTunes or Fantasy Baseball Express.

Jeff Kuhn writes for the uber popular Boston Red Sox blog The House That Dewey Built, which has been around since 2003. His Red Sox insight should be read by any member of the Nation.