Archive for the “Trades” Category
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Trading is entrenched in the fabric a baseball. Team’s trade players, kids trade baseball cards, but trading in fantasy baseball is going the way of the blacksmith; out the window.
Trading in fantasy baseball has become more difficult for several reasons, the first of which is the attempts by owners to unload injured goods. Every time I am sent a trade proposal I can’t help but think I am being sold a bill of goods. Many times I really am. I cannot count the number of times someone has tried to offer me a newly injured player before the player is listed as injured. This has to be the oldest scam in fantasy sports. This is why I always give myself 24 hours to mull over any trade offers and check out if the player has any issues that may keep him from playing.
The next reason is the sheer absurdity of the trade offers. RULE #1 QUANTITY DOES NOT EQUAL QUALITY. Three mediocre middle relievers do not equal one top tier outfielder. I get these trade requests all the time. Then, after rejecting the original offer, the owner will “sweeten” the deal by throwing in another lousy player. There is no way an owner wants several players whose equal value can be found on the free agent list. Why would an owner want to create a logjam at a position with a bunch of players that are marginal and a hole at another, where they had a strong player to begin with? Please, do everyone in the league a favor; just keep these trade offers to yourself.
The next reason that trading has become more difficult is the “veto” power of the other owners. Leagues give owners veto power to prevent “collusion” or “dumping” situations in leagues that ruin the competitiveness for everyone. But some owners have taken this too far and vote to veto every trade that comes along. Andrew Johnson (the former president who was nicknamed Sir Veto for you non-historians out there) had nothing on these guys who obstinately block every attempt to better your team. These killjoys have abused the system and taken the fun out of many fantasy leagues.
Trading can be a way to mutually benefit two teams and make the game more fun. It is a great way to shake up the structure of your team at a time when you need it. Now, all you need to do is find a willing trading partner and a league with owners that will let it happen.
HAPPY TRADING
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Sports Illustrated reported it first. Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland and nobody knows what’s coming back to Colorado in return. ESPN thinks that pitcher Greg Smith will be included in the deal, but the big news (other than Holliday being traded) is that no news is known about the deal, yet.
As mentioned previously, this deal will most assuredly hurt Hollidays fantasy baseball value. At this point, I can only speculate how much. Holliday has never played a game at McAfee Coliseum. But, the park effects aren’t boding well for the ex-Rockie outfielder.
According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factor statistics Coors Field ranks third for home runs with a 1.299 HR factor and McAfee Coliseum ranks 14th with a 0.988 HR factor. Coors Field also ranks third with a 1.126 Runs factor, while McAfee Coliseum ranks 26th with a 0.916 Runs factor.
Another thing to consider when speculating about Hollidays 2009 fantasy value is the fact that he’ll have less support in the lineup hititng behind him. Whether it’s Sweeney, Cust, or Suzuki hitting in the clean up hole, you can be pretty sure they won’t offer the same protection as Garrett Atkins did in Colorado.
Update [Nov 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST]: This deal isn’t final yet, and likely won’t be for another 48 hours.
Update [Nov 11, 2008 1:27 PM EST]: The deal still hasn’t been finalized, but there is a better picture of the players involved. Colorado seems to be sending Holliday to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street.
Update [Nov 12, 2008 2:30 PM EST]: The deal is now official. The A’s sent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, reliever Huston Street and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.
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As mentioned in an earlier post, the KC Royals and the Florida Marlins have swapped players. First baseman Mike Jacobs is joining the Royals and relief pitcher Leo Nunez is on his way to Miami. Let’s now look at the Nunez side of this deal.
Nunez will join the bullpen as a set-up guy, most likely. His ERA was good in Kansas City in 2008 at 2.98 over 48.1 innings. But his strikeout total (26) and strikeout to walk ratio (26:15) don’t particularly lend well to being promted to the closers role, which is currently held by Kevin Gregg. Or is it Matt Lindstrom?
No matter if it’s Gregg or Lindstrom who enters 2009 as the Marlins closer, consider Nunez the third in line, at best. He’ll be a source for holds (if your league uses that category) and that’s about it.
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Immediately making changes in the off-season, the KC Royals and the Florida Marlins swap players. First baseman Mike Jacobs is joining the Royals and relief pitcher Leo Nunez is on his way to Miami.
Jacobs hit 32 home runs and drove in 93 in 2008 for the Marlins but the fantasy goodness stops there. He only batted .247 and had a very low 67 runs. His run total is low because this guy never seems to get on base, which is proven by his .299 on-base percentage.
Expect Jacobs to split time between DH and first base, which leaves this question. What do the Royals do with Ryan Shealy and Billy Butler now that there is a third person to take up at-bats?
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The Colorado Rockies have announced to the baseball world that they will entertain offers for fantasy stud Matt Holliday. Instead of allowing Holliday to play the final season of his contract in Colorado and then test the free agent waters, the Rockies want to see what they can get for the outfielder.
The question remains, would leaving the hitter’s haven of Coors Field hurt Matt Holliday’s fantasy value?
In 2008 Holliday hit .332 with 15 home runs at home, and .308 with ten home runs on the road. While those aren’t huge differences, his road numbers would almost certainly not allow him to be a first round pick. To further prove that point, look at his slash stats and how they relate to his RBI production. At home, Holliday averages .332/.413/.584 and drove in 59 runs. But, on the road his averages were .308/.405/.486 with only 29 RBI. That almost 100 point reduction in slugging percentage seemed to take its toll on his RBI total.
It’s even worse in you look at his career home/road splits.
- Home - .357/.423/.645 with 84 home runs and 307 RBI in 1353 at-bats
- Away - .280/.348/.455 with 44 home runs and 176 RBI in 1303 at-bats
For those of you in keeper leagues that own Holliday, you’d better start hoping for the Rockies and their #1 hitter to hurry and renegotiate a contract that keeps him in Denver. For those of you that are already preparing draft boards for 2009, write Holliday’s name in easily erasable pencil at the top of the fantasy outfielder list. If he’s traded (where he goes will determine the extent of the drop-off) his fantasy value will drop.
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Get ready for FAAB wars, races to the waiver wire, and waiver priority madness. The Braves and Angels just announced that they were swapping first basemen.
To the American League goes Mark Teixeira. To the National League goes Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek.
You folks in AL and NL-only fantasy baseball leagues… have fun!
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In case you’ve been living under a rock lately, let me just go ahead and inform you that the Bedard to Seattle deal has finally gone through. Here’s a look at it:
Seattle sent Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler to Baltimore for Erik Bedard. Now, I’m not going to talk winners and losers from a team standpoint, many folks have already done that. But I do want to hit a few of the fantasy highlights for the players in this deal.
- Erik Bedard moved to a more pitcher friendly park and now, if he wasn’t already located near the top on most draft lists, is a top 5 starting pitcher option in mixed leagues and a top 3 in AL only leagues. Bedard’s current Average Draft Position is 39.05, which seems a bit high to take him in the early 3rd round in mixed leagues. His AL only ADP is 19.58, which is crazy considering Josh Beckett has an ADP of 23.05 (anyone who’s taking Bedard before Beckett, please come join a league in which I participate).
- Adam Jones should be the starting center fielder in Baltimore, and we’re finally going to get to see what he can do with 500+ at-bats. Camden Yard should help him pack on a few more power numbers as I’ve seen many people project 20+ home runs from Jones now.
- George Sherrill may be the Orioles new closer. I’m not sure how great his job security will be as the O’s closer job has about as good of a chance of changing hands as any closer’s job in the league. Don’t spend too much on Sherrill or grab him too early. You can take a flier, but not before you consider about 85% of the other closers in baseball.
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