Crooked Pitch

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Scott Kazmir, the Tampa Bay Rays’ finest pitcher, was diagnosed with a left elbow strain earlier in the week. The 24-year old ace experienced pain in his pitching arm before Tuesday’s intrasquad game. With pain that felt “like a hyperextension,” how will this minor injury affect the pitcher’s fantasy value in 2008?

Minimally. Kazmir is a must-have for fantasy leagues that “record and award” points for strikeouts. In the 2007 Regular Season, the former-Met led the American League with 239 strikeouts. But, since he is playing for the infamous Tampa Bay Rays, I wouldn’t be confident in counting on him for wins. Depending on the configuration of your league, I would try drafting him earlier on around the Seventh Round. He should be an integral component of your fantasy baseball success in 2008.

Kazmir said that he will be resting for two weeks due to his recent diagnosis. The MRI results claimed that there was “no serious injury.” Once he recovers from this minor injury, he should be back to his old ways of striking out unlucky batters - I hope.

There seems to be trouble in the air if you are a staff ace in the state of Florida.

On Tuesday, Scott Kazmir left the mound with discomfort in his left elbow. The Rays hope he’ll be back for opening day, but will his first few starts be used for catching up instead of racking up fantasy wins and strikeouts for those of us who drafted him?

Now, we have the ace for the Marlins, Sirgio Mitre. He left his game Thursday without recording an out. He complained about right elbow discomfort. We’ll have to wait and see about the extent of Mitre’s injury.

Today’s pitch count is 3.

1. The Detroit Tigers put together one of the most formidable hitting lineups in baseball this off-season. Do they really need to strike gold with “out of baseball” relievers too? Matt Mantei hasn’t pitched in the big league in two years, but his stuff looks “nasty” so far this spring.
2. Alex Gonzalez is looking to be the early front runner for the Cincinnati Reds starting shortstop job. He’s competing with Jeff Keppinger.
3. Anthony Reyes was 2-14 last season for the Cardinals, but, so far, has been impressive this spring.

I’ve participated in like a kajillion mock drafts in the past month or so, but last night was a real draft. This one is for bragging rights. This league is made up of twelve fantasy baseball writers. Let me give you the scoop on who’s involved (this was the draft order as well).

1. Eric Hinz, FakeTeams
2. Zach Piso, Rotonomics
3. Knox Bardeen, Crooked Pitch
4. David Chase, Brock For Broglio
5. Rudy Gamble, Razzball
6. Tim Dierkes, Roto Authority
7. Kelly Pfleiger, Fantasy Gameday
8. Bob Taylor, Fantasy Hurler
9. Tim McLeod, RotoRob
10. Tony Bartlett, Fantasy Baseball Mafia
11. Derek Nelson, Seamless Baseball
12. Edwin Van Bibber-Orr, Seamless Baseball

The league is set up as a standard 5X5 with 2 catchers, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 1 corner infielder, 1 middle infielder, 5 outfielders, 1 utility spot, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots. Here’s my team:

1. (3) David Wright
2. (22) Ichiro Suzuki
3. (27) Álex Ríos
4. (46) Derek Jeter
5. (51) John Lackey
6. (70) Aaron Harang
7. (75) Félix Hernández
8. (94) Paul Konerko
9. (99) Vernon Wells
10. (118) Jermaine Dye
11. (123) Jeremy Hermida
12. (142) Kenji Johjima
13. (147) Manny Corpas
14. (166) Plácido Polanco
15. (171) Ian Snell
16. (190) Iván Rodríguez
17. (195) Ryan Theriot
18. (214) Joe Borowski
19. (219) Casey Kotchman
20. (238) Jason Kubel
21. (243) Zack Greinke
22. (262) Jon Lester
23. (267) Barry Zito
24. (286) Manny Parra
25. (291) Asdrubal Cabrera
26. (310) Pedro Feliz

• With the third pick I had to decide between Wright and Hanley Ramirez. I decided to go with the safer pick as I am unsure if Hanley can repeat last season’s numbers with his lingering shoulder problem and the absence of Miguel Cabrera.
• I’m happy with the first few outfielder picks I made. Ichiro and Alex Rios are studs, and Rios is primed for a huge breakout in 2008.
• I’m also happy with my first three starting pitchers, although I never expected to take three guys in a row at this point in the draft. Taking Lackey, Harang and King Felix in the 5th, 6th & 7th rounds could help to shore up K’s, ERA and Wins, but did I grab them too early?
• I’m not terribly happy with my bullpen. I only have Corpas and Borowski. Let’s hope I can using the free agent pool to add valuable save during the season.
• I reached with a few picks. Hermida, Kubel and Parra have some big upside potential. If these picks pan out, I’ll look like somewhat of a genius.
• How can I not take Pedro Feliz with the 26th round pick when Mike Schmidt says he could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100?

Questions and comments about my draft are welcomed. I plan on keeping everyone informed on how this league is progressing. It should be a lot of fun.

David Chase, who runs the blog Brock For Broglio, just wrote a very useful piece titled, 101 Best Progressive Baseball Blogs and Resources. I was very happy that he included Crooked Pitch on this list.

David asked at the end of his post if he had missed anyone. There is already a lively interaction in the comments section about which sites he missed. Go check out the list of 101 and all the extras that are being talked about. And David, you missed another one, your own. Brock For Broglio is a must read for any fantasy GM. Davis was modest enough not to add his own site to the list, but he should have!

Cincinnati Reds rookie first baseman, Joey Votto, has been on the radar of sleeper hunters for a while this pre-season. He’s being drafted in a little over 50% of the mock drafts over at Mock Draft Central, with an Average Draft Position of 274.14 (late 23rd round).

I’m pretty sure that Votto’s ADP would be higher if fantasy GM’s knew he was going to be the Reds starting first baseman, instead of Scott Hatteberg. Manager, Dusty Baker hinted to just that, recently.

“What’s Hatteberg? Thirty-eight?” Baker said. “Votto’s the future here. I talked to Hatteberg about Votto. He thinks he’s going to be a heck of a player. He’s not conceding his position. … I think he understands to be part of the club that Votto might have to be a major part of it. It might be Votto’s time.”

This news, especially if holds up and Votto is the starter, makes Joey Votto more valuable. He’s been a 20/20 performer in the minors and hit .321 with 4 home runs in his 24 game audition last season. If he gets 500 at-bats in 2008, I wouldn’t be surprised with a 15/15 performance, and he could approach 20/20.

Is it possible for a player to breakout in consecutive seasons? It just might be for Rockies outfielder, Brad Hawpe. In 2007, Hawpe raised his home run total by almost 25% (27 compared to 22 in ‘06) and drove in 116, which was almost 28% more than his 2006 season. What does Hawpe have left to do?

The simple answer is that he has to hit left handed pitchers. Let’s take a look at his lefty/righty splits from ‘07.

• vs. RHP - .315/.418/.585 24 HR 94 RBI 1.20 K:BB
• vs. LHP - .214/.283/.397 5HR 22RBI 4.00 K:BB

If you take a look at a few of Hawpe’s projections for 2008, it doesn’t look like he’ll take another big step.

• Bill James - .295 27 HR 105 RBI
• Marcel - .286 21HR 89 RBI
• CHONE - .276 24 HR 78 RBI

However, Brad Hawpe has worked out a ton in the off-season. He only took one week off after the World Series and has been working out six days a week at Shawn Morgan’s Cooperstown Rockies facility in Dallas. Coming into camp this spring, Hawpe looks to be in great shape and has packed on 10 extra pounds of muscle.

If Hawpe’s extra weight and extra time in the batting cages this winter don’t increase his numbers against lefty pitching, you can bet that he won’t add on to his 2007 numbers. In fact, if his lefty splits don’t increase, he may start splitting time with Ryan Spilborghs, who mashes left handed pitching.

Keep an eye on Hawpe every time he hits against a left handed pitcher this spring. If he’s still inept against southpaws, you may want to downgrade Hawpe as he might become a platoon player with Spilborghs. If he’s learned a bit this winter and shows success, you might want to think All-Star with some upside from 2007.