Archive for May, 2008
Thank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting! 23-year-old pitching prospect, Greg Reynolds is being called up to enter the Colorado Rockies rotation this Sunday, as Mark Redman has been sent to the bullpen. Reynolds, who is 6′7″, is a ground-ball specialist who was taken in the first round of the 2006 draft (second overall).
Last season, before a shoulder injury ended his season, Reynolds was 4-1 in eight starts with a 1.42 ERA and a 3.88 strikeout to walk ratio (35:9) at the Double-A level. He hasn’t been quite so stellar this season in seven starts. His record is 1-2 with a 4.86 at Triple-A Colorado Springs, but it’s his strikeout to walk ratio of 1.77 (16:9) that is troublesome.
The Rockies front office seems to be less than thrilled with the promotion of Reynolds, as they would have preferred to wait a while longer. That’s just an option that is no longer available to this pitching staff.
Officially, the Rockies said they were acting cautiously with the prized prospect’s tender right ankle. Unofficially, they have been unable to complete a trade for Cincinnati’s Josh Fogg or Boston’s Julian Tavarez, leaving Reynolds as the most viable alternative for a disappointing rotation.
General manager Dan O’Dowd’s preference was to promote Reynolds next month, allowing him more time to increase strength in his surgically repaired right shoulder. A Triple-A teammate said Wednesday that Reynolds, just 21, has shown huge improvement in his last few outings after eschewing off-speed pitches early in counts and regaining command of his sinkerball.
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Over the past few weeks, I’ve briefly mentioned Santiago Casilla here and once more here. The Oakland A’s reliever is having a fantastic year as he’s got a 0.00 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP in 17.1 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is good at 7.00 (21:3) and he’s got one win and, last night, recorded his first save.
He’s not going to be taking Huston Street’s job, just yet. But now, you have to take notice to Casilla’s fantasy baseball value, as his role has been upgraded to set-up guy and first to fill in for Street when Street needs a breather. This also may give Billy Beane ammunition to pull off one of his favorite moves; trading an established closer for talent and replacing the closer with someone cheaper from within the organization.
Keep an eye on Casilla and the state of the A’s bullpen. I’ve already recommended that you can sign Casilla for help with your ERA and WHIP. Now that he’s getting spot wins and saves he is signable in just about every fantasy format.
Update [5/7/2008 11:12 AM]: Unsung Setup Guy [Fangraphs]
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Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.
C: Chris Iannetta - I didn’t review him at my site, but thought he needed a look. He is batting over .300 and Torrealba is having a rough start. He showed he could be a .300 hitter and could be a post hype sleeper if the Rockies will move him to full time.
He is currently owned in 8% of leagues.
CI: Ty Wiggington - I am going to take a liberty with my CI position this week. Ty belongs at 2B if you play him, but is eligible at 3B as well. He will get 20+ HR with enough at bats, but after missing most of April he might miss that mark, but should get you 15+ from now until October.
He is only owned in 43% of CBS leagues.
MI: Felipe Lopez - He is batting well and leading off which is helping in batting average and he has stole 40+ bases just 2 years ago. If you have enough power and need steals he would be a better pickup than Ty. He has great position eligibility at 2B, SS and OF
He is only owned in 51% of CBS leagues.
OF: Moises Alou - Another injury return help. At his age and ability to stay healthy he probably won’t be active for the rest of the season, but he seems to still have his hitting ability. He could hit 18-20 HR’s still and will have an average around .300.
He is only owned in 27% of CBS leagues.
SP: Kei Igawa - Everyone gave Daisuke Matsuzaka a break for needing a year to adjust. I don’t think he is anywhere as good as Daisuke, but he is not expected to get better like everyone expects Daisuke to. I think he could surprise. He should be given the rest of May to prove if he is going to keep his spot.
He is owned in 3% of leagues.
RP: Jon Rauch - Chad Cordero is out for a month. I know there are not 48% of leagues that don’t use 2-3 closers or that many leagues with that many teams quitting already. He will be closing for at least 4-6 weeks and as proven closers on sub .500 teams does not severely lower save opportunities. Can’t be much worse than Eric Gagne right now.
He is only owned in 52% as of this morning on CBS.
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Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs posted a few days back about the heroes of April; the top offensive guys for the first month of MLB. He used WPA/LI to determine offensive production. Very cool!
Let me just go ahead and define WPA/LI right now. [from FanGraphs]
WPA/LI (context neutral wins / game state linear weights): How many wins a player contributes to his team with the Leverage Index aspect removed, invented by Tom Tango.
Calculating WPA/LI: WPA is divided by LI for each individual play attributed to a specific player and then the WPA/LI for the individual plays is then added up to create WPA/LI for an entire season. This is considerably different then taking a player’s WPA and dividing it by pLI.
Why you should care: Unlike standard linear weights, WPA/LI does take into account the situation. So at times when a walk would be just as valuable as a home run, WPA/LI accurately weights the walk and the home run, where linear weights would still give .13 wins to the home run and the walk .03 wins.
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If not for one Boston pitcher, the National League would have swept these fantasy baseball MVP awards this week. Nice job NL!
Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto batted .391/.481/.870 while scoring six times. He also hit two home runs with 9 RBI. Russell Martin also had a good week going .304/.448/.435 with six runs, a home run, four RBI and a stolen base, but his performance was clearly a second place performance.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez narrowly edged out Lance Berkman (who won in week 4) for this week’s prize scoring seven times and knocking in six RBI with four home runs. Gonzalez averaged .385/.385/.885 last week.
Second Base: Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - Utley becomes the first three time winner of this award as scored five times, knocked three home runs, had five RBI, and even stole a base. His slash stats last week were .348/.423./783. He narrowly edged out Placido Polanco while Dan Uggla also garnered consideration.
Third Base: Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates - Bautista hit three home runs last week while scoring six times and driving in seven runs. He averaged .333/.370/.750 on the road to win this award .
Shortstop: Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal finished just ahead of Jose Reyes for this award largely on his 11 runs scored. He also hit a home run, drove in four and stole two bases. His slash stats were .393/.452/.571.
Outfield: Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers - Kemp was the clear-cut winner this week and the second straight Dodger on the list this week. Kemp hit .407/.433/.556 with seven runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases.
Starting Pitcher: Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves - It usually takes a two-start pitcher to win this award, but Hudson was special last Friday night (and I was lucky enough to see this in person). Hudson faced off against Edison Volquez in a fantastic pitchers duel. Hudson pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 and walking zero.
Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon had only one save last week, but he also got two wins. In 4.1 innings of work he struck out three, walked zero, and gave up two hits on his way to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.46 WHIP.
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Although Reds starting pitcher, Bronson Arroyo, says he feels great, Dusty Baker says the Reds are going to get him checked out.
“We’re kind of lost right now,” he said. “We’re going to get him checked out, maybe something is wrong with him. His pitches aren’t sharp. His breaking ball isn’t crisp. He’s kind of gotten a little bit predictable as far as throwing the 3-2 breaking ball. Ordinarily, that ball (Tom) Glavine hit doesn’t stay up in the zone.
“We’ll get him examined. You don’t want to find anything. But, hopefully, we can come up with some kind of solution. I know he’s going crazy, too.”
Arroyo was clear that he doesn’t think anything is physically wrong with him.
“There ain’t nothing to check out,” he said. “They said they want to check me out? That’s probably the best I felt in years on a day game. I’ve got no excuses. They just beat my (butt). I had a good fastball, decent command, everything felt good.”
At 1-4 with an 8.63 ERA, if Arroyo is still in your fantasy lineup, you might need a trip to the doctor too.
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One of the first statistics that I look for when deciding on a trade or a free agent acquisition that involves a relief pitcher is strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). The ratio is easy to calculate as it’s just K/BB, but it goes a long way in showing how dominant a pitcher is over the batters he faces. When considering a relief pitcher, you’d like to see more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a pretty high K:BB ratio (hopefully above 10). I’m going to share three relief pitchers with you who meet both said criteria (one might even be available in your fantasy league) and then also the other two remaining relievers who have a K:BB above 10.
Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB and More K’s than IP.
- Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - He has 21 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 21.00 is the highest of any reliever in baseball with at least 10 innings pitched. He’s pitched 15.1 innings of relief.
- Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - He has 15 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 15.00 ranks #2 and he’s pitched in 13.0 innings.
- Santiago Casilla | Oakland Athletics - Casilla is the one relief pitcher in this list of three that may be available in your fantasy league. He has 20 strikeouts and only two walks in 16.1 innings of work. His K:B ratio is 10.00.
Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB but fewer K’s than IP.
- Aquilino Lopez | Detroit Tigers - Lopez is an all-purpose reliever in the Tigers bullpen, but not their closer. He has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 18.2 innings. He has a K:BB ratio of 14.00.
- Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera, mathematically speaking, has a K:BB ratio of infinity since he hasn’t walked anyone all year. But, fo our purposes, lets give him a 12.00 K:BB ratio since he has 12 strikeouts and zero walks in 13 innings of work.
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