Crooked Pitch

We’re starting to get into the thick of things when it comes to differing draft strategies and player evaluations. These next five to seven rounds are very fun to watch. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, and round 6.

• Round 7 : Pick 1(73) - @crookedpitch - Jermaine Dye - Yes, I know that Dye is 35-years-old. yes, I know that he’s likely to regress a small amount in ‘09. That being said, he’s still gonna be close to 30 home runs and havd 90+ RBI. That’s not bad in the 7th round; especially with a decent batting average and 90+ runs scored.
• Round 7 : Pick 2(74) - @Angels2717 - Adam Dunn - This is somewhat a risky pick because of his average.  It is god awful. But with some very good average guys already, I think I can take that risk to get his power. He should hit 40+ homers which will be a nice addition in this round.
• Round 7 : Pick 3(75) - @TheRoundtable - Jhonny Peralta - Want to talk about a guy that doesn’t get the respect of the other shortstops, it’s Peralta. He’s hit 20+ home runs in three of the last four years, and his average has risen each of the last three. He scored 100 runs last season, and frankly I think he has much more upside than Jeter, Young, or Tulo. You can argue I may have taken him a little high, but I think this was the right spot to make sure I add another 20+ home run guy to my lineup at a key position.
• Round 7 : Pick 4(76) - @fakebaseball - Josh Beckett - My pick of Beckett in the 7th round is another pick I didn’t want to make (I prefer drafting starters later, and growing up in New York City, the last thing I want on my team is *two* Red Sox…). However, I believe it’s critical to take the emotion out of drafting and stick to your rankings if you want to do well, and I think I got a great arm on a great team a round later than I expected him to go. For ‘09, I think an ERA of 3.50 with a 1.2 WHIP, 8.25 K/9 or better, and copious wins isn’t an outlandish projection. Haren and Beckett give me a strong start to my rotation, and while I’m digging myself a bit of a hole offensively, it’s one I hope I’ll be able to dig myself out of later in the draft.
• Round 7 : Pick 5(77) - @jefeboy - Andre Ethier - Here we are in the 7th round and I’ve yet to grab an OF, so why not start with one who has the ever-popular “upside.” Solid all-around contributor who could be more than that, if his 2nd-half breakout was legit. 25 HR.
• Round 7 : Pick 6(78) - @xxldaddyo - Jonathan Papelbon - Paps has become a groundball pitcher who doesnt walk anybody. He closes for a team thats gonna win 90 plus games so he’s a lock for 40+ saves.
• Round 7 : Pick 7(79) - @tommystv - Victor Martinez - In a two catcher league I like getting a top 5 Catcher if the timing is right. I know Victor has fallen off in the power department but he still puts the bat on the ball unlike most catchers. So if he’s healthy I got Joe Mauer two rounds later than Joe Mauer. Health is the key.
• Round 7 : Pick 8(80) - @sporer - James Shields - I always struggle with when to start taking SPs.  Well actually I don’t struggle so much as I put it off as long as I can.  I joined the fray earlier than usual with Shields, but it’s hard not to be very pleased as he’s a beast.  He has back-to-back 215 inning seasons with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  He doesn’t dominate batters like a Lincecum or Sabathia, but he’s at or near 7 strikeouts per nine, which is usable.  There is nothing to suggest that the Rays are merely a one-year wonder so he should have the offensive support for wins again in 2009.
• Round 7 : Pick 9(81) - @therotofeed - Carlos Pena - I had to respond to the power dwindling from the boards by taking a player I normally don’t like to roster - I generally want guys I can count on to hit at least .270. But I made the mistake of going with too much BA and not enough power a few years back and learned it’s a lot harder to trade high BA/R/SB guys than it is to unload a basher who can’t hit .250. Plus Pena’s second half last year looked an awful lot like his monstrous 2007.
• Round 7 : Pick 10(82) - @dowdyism - Vernon Wells - After a tough 2007, Wells bounced back nicely in 2008.  Hamstring troubles last season curbed his full season totals, but I think 25 HR and 100 RBI are not out of reach and I’m happy to add his bat to my outfield.
• Round 7 : Pick 11(83) - @jasoncollette - Garrett Atkins - Might as well enjoy the final few months of his productive career before he is traded away from Coors. Unlike Holliday, Atkins is brutal away from Coors. Atkins qualifies at both corner spots which is a nice bonus for 2009 but you can count on reduced production in August and September.
• Round 7 : Pick 12(84) - @seniorcircuit - J.J. Hardy -I passed up Jeter, Tulo, and Young for Hardy.  None of those guys seem as promising as Hardy does at shortstop and a decent shortstop is hard to find.  I don’t feel I reached too far to take him and love the possibility of him improving his batting average and hitting for a little more power. I expect 80/25/85/2/.280

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.