Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 15.

1. Closer by committee situations are never good in terms of fantasy baseball. That’s not stopping Tampa Bay from utilizing the strategy while Troy Percival is injured. Last night J.P. Howell got his second save of the year and R.J. Anderson wrote a post yesterday stating that Howell has some pretty exciting numbers. Better numbers in some regards then Papelbon and Rivera, to name a few.
2. You don’t see this very often. Both pitchers in last night’s Cincinnati versus St. Louis game pitched a complete game. Aaron Harang took the loss giving up three earned and striking out four. Chris Carpenter won his fourth game and has an ERA of 0.71 in six starts this season. He’s struck out 31 batters in 38 innings of work and only walked five.
3. David Wright stole his 13th base yesterday and is looking like he’s going wild on the base paths like he did in 2007 when he swiped 34. Unfortunately, he’s only jacked three home runs in the Mets’ new Grand Canyon like ballpark. Wright’s HR/F ratio of 5.8% is miserably low and show rise bringing his home run total up soon. But don’t look for him to approach 30 homers this season. With a hit rate of 44.4% I’m not even sure that his .326 batting average is safe. When his hit rate normalizes back towards his normal 34.7% we might see a huge drop in his average. Consider yourself warned.
4. Andrew McCutchen had a nice major league debut yesterday. He went 2-for-4 scoring three times and stealing a base. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues right now but that number is sure to rise shortly. He’s NL-only worthy right now and you may consider taking a mixed-league flier on him too, especially in keeper leagues.

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Josh Fleet is writing today’s guest post about the Toronto Blue Jays. Josh is a writer at John McDonald’s Cabinet, a hot new Blue Jays blog. Josh is also a writer at Downtown Sports and is on twitter and should be followed. You can find him at @JMChollywoodj.

Is there any fantasy value amongst the Toronto Blue Jays? The simple answer is… maybe. The Jays have 3 players that will certainly go in almost all leagues.

• The first lock with a great deal of fantasy value is Roy Halladay. Halladay should be a top 10 fantasy starter in all leagues. He may be the most consistent pitcher in the American League, and fantasy owners were pleasantly surprised by his strikeout totals in 2008. Halladay should be good for close to 20 wins, an ERA below 3.50, and a WHIP below 1.15. If Halladay drops out of the top 10 starters in drafts something is wrong.
• The next player with great fantasy value is Alex Rios. Rios should be a top 25 outfielder in mixed leagues. He saw a great increase in his stolen base totals last season, grabbing over 30 bags for the first time in his young career. Rios should be a 20/20 guy, and a reliable outfielder.
• The next player to watch is Vernon Wells. Wells has disappointed fantasy owners over the last couple years: due to a poor performance in 2007, and injuries in 2008. All indications are that Wells will be healthy on Opening Day, and could present great value for owners. Wells has 30 home run potential and can hit for average. If Wells is available late, he could be a great pick-up.

While, these three players present a great deal of fantasy value, there are also some decent sleepers amongst the Jays.

• Travis Snider, will be an everyday player at the ripe age of 21, and could knock out 25 home runs.
• Adam Lind, will also be an everyday player and could also hit around 25 homers.
• Also, be sure to keep your eyes on the young Blue Jays pitching, as they always seem to find reliable young starters in their minor league system (Marcum, McGowan, Litsch).

Overall, the Blue Jays present SOME fantasy value on draft day. Yet, the youngsters that can probably be found in the free agent pool may be a pleasant surprise to owners.

If you are a team blogger and are interested writing a fantasy preview, let me know.

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP).  I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review.  The reviews are how I view the player today.

C: Jeff Mathis- In his last six games he is hitting .300/.348/.550 with 5/1/4 and 1 SB. I will continue to recommend him as his playing time increases. That steal was his first in 269 career major league AB’s so don’t expect any more there, but in full playing time he could be somewhere from 15-20 HR.

He is currently owned in 12% of leagues.

CI: Scott Rolen - He has gone 4 for his first 11 with a home run and I think he has looked like his old self. As I stated earlier this week he is never going to have 30+ HR again, but he is solid as an April pickup. Just toss him when the next injury comes.

He is only owned in 44% of CBS leagues.

MI: Clint Barmes – Well, since getting the job he has gone cold, but I think he will break out soon. He does have some tough pitching coming up so don’t start him yet, but perhaps next week when he gets Piniero and Looper against STL he will turn it back on.

He is only owned in 26% of CBS leagues.

OF: Carlos Quentin – Well, he should be gone in most active leagues now as he is tied for the AL lead in HR’s and is getting on base at will. As long as the shoulder holds up he could be the post hype sleeper everyone was looking for.

He is only owned in 69% of CBS leagues.

OF: Mike Cameron - He is currently playing his first game and already has a hit and a run. He is not going to blow the doors off and his average might hurt, but the speed and power are still there and should be worth a roster spot.

He is only owned in 31% of CBS leagues.

OF: Adam Lind - He is getting the everyday starts and with his power potential he could help in HR, but likely not much else at this point. He is batting in the bottom part of the order, which limits RBI potential. Watch if he gets hot and get him on your team.

He is only owned in 14% of CBS leagues.

SP: Chad Gaudin - Another good start by Gaudin and another win.  I think over the season the wins will be limited playing for Oakland, but the other stats shouldn’t. Beware the second half though as he seemed to wear down last year, which made his stats look worse for the year. I recommend moving him in the summer if you can and if he keeps up these stats.

He is owned in 52% of leagues.

RP: Max Scherzer - I’m sure everyone has put in claims already, but if you haven’t, make sure that you do.  In Yahoo standard leagues he is on waivers until May 2nd, but I’m sure most leagues he will go to the #1 or #2 depending on someone holding out for Kershaw. He is looking to be headed to the Pen now, but his K rate and potential could have him anywhere from starting to closing in no time.

He is only owned in 47% as of this morning on CBS.