Crooked Pitch

It’s round twelve. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10 and round 11.

• Round 12 : Pick 1(133) - @seniorcircuit - A.J. Burnett - This started my own run on pitchers pairing Burnett with Gallardo in back to back picks.  It seems I have drafted the New York Yankees big three signings, not really on purpose, it just happened that way. I see nothing wrong with Burnett in this spot with a great offense behind him I predict a 14 W/180 Ks/3.97 ERA/1.29 WHIP.
• Round 12 : Pick 2(134) - @jasoncollette - Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is someone I start looking at in the low teens because he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup. Depending on your in-season eligibility, he’ll qualify at catcher at some point in the season making him even more valuable - say a Ryan Doumit lite for 2009? He is still way too impatient at the plate and led the team in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone but it is not like there is anyone else around on the depth chart so he will have a very long leash from management.
• Round 12 : Pick 3(135) - @dowdyism - Ryan Dempster - Back from the depths last year, Dempster was a workhorse for the Cubs, throwing over 200 innings, and notching nearly as many strikeouts. The 2.96 ERA most likely isn’t repeatable, but his all around numbers make him a solid addition to my staff.
• Round 12: Pick 4(136) - @therotofeed - Adrian Beltre - Again, probably a little earlier than I need to go, but I like his consistency. Beltre gets you 25/85/270 every year. Except of course, in 2004, which was the last time his contract was up, when he basically doubled his normal production through either economic inspiration or magical potion. Hmm. Guess whose contract is up at the end of this year?  And guess who is still only 29 years old? Still got some of that potion?
• Round 12 : Pick 5(137) - @sporer - Lastings Milledge - Is it obvious that I like power-speed in my outfield? Milledge joins Kemp, Granderson and Young for now. His totals were nearly similar in each half, but it was the 81 fewer at-bats and 54 more batting average points that made it look so good. Milledge is another youngster with room to improve and I see another step forward in 2009.
• Round 12 : Pick 6(138) - @tommystv - David Price - I haven’t reached on any youth with uncertainty yet, so here I go. Starter or Reliever I’m down. I’m assuming he’ll be starting this year, but you never know we these things. Great talent regardless.
• Round 12 : Pick 7(139) - @xxldaddyo - Kerry Wood - Time to close out the Closer situation by picking up Kerry Wood here in the 12th Round. Wood was relatively healthy in 2008 (save for a three week blister ailment) and posted a 34 Saves for the Cubs. He’s moved from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and will have plenty of save opps for the Indians.
• Round 12 : Pick 8(140) - @jefeboy - Matt Cain - Waited a long time to take a second SP after taking my ace very early. The wins are a toss-up, but he showed lots of improvement in 2008 and I hope he keeps it up. He’s young, so who knows?
• Round 12 : Pick 9(141) - @fakebaseball - Javier Vazquez -Since I’m at the point where I’d like to start adding more pitchers to my roster, I chose Javier Vazquez, who in my mind is the best-available pitcher, and worthy of a 12th-round pick. For ‘09, I’m expecting 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9, which are undoubtedly very solid numbers from my #3 starter. I think he’ll find pitching in the NL more to his liking than pitching in the AL (where his home field was a bandbox, and where he regularly faced DHs).
• Round 12 : Pick 10(142) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Ryan - In the middle rounds, I look to build my pitching staff, and adding Ryan here gives me two solid closers and has me confident that I won’t have to be looking for one the rest of the way. The saves I have now I can live with. Ryan will get all the opportunities and it’s a full season away from the surgery that knocked him out. He should be back to where he was prior to the injury now.
• Round 12 : Pick 11(143) - @Angels2717 - Matt Garza - Matt Garza showed in the last half of the season and plaoffs that he can pitch at a high level and get some wins. He’s young and fresh and could have a breaout year this year. He might not pick up all of those K’s, but you can’t expect that kind of pitcher in the 12th round. What he will do is have a fairly low ERA and 14+ wins (hopefully).
• Round 12 : Pick 12(144) - @crookedpitch - Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco had a huge second half where he lowered his ERA almost a full point and struck out more than a batter per inning. I’m hoping that he continues on this trend in ‘09. I am worried a bit about the workload his arm undertook in ‘08. I’m willing to take this medium risk / high reward gamble in the 12th round.

For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.

Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.

Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:

1. David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
2. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
4. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
6. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
7. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%).  That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
9. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
10. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
12. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
13. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
14. Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
15. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
16. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
17. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
19. Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
20. Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
21. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
22. Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
23. Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
24. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
25. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
26. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.