Crooked Pitch

Tuesday night was a terrible night for big-named players and injuries.

• Adrian Gonzalez tried to leg out a triple and hurt his knee sliding into third base. Nobody knows the extent of the injury as he’ll be evaluated on Wednesday.
• Mark DeRosa lasted all of three games for the Cardinals before getting injured. He left Tuesday’s game with a left wrist injury.
• Grady Sizemore is going to play through pain for the rest of the season and most likely have off-season surgery to repair his left elbow. So much for Sizemore being a buy-low candidate for the second half.

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn pitched seven strong innings last night giving up only one earned run and six hits. He still took the loss as Mariners’ hitters failed to score him any runs and only managed two hits. Washburn hasn’t won a game since April 21st and his last two starts have been successful in the fact that he’s pitched 13 innings and only given up one run. But the lack of run support is killing him. Even though Washburn’s season ERA is 3.22 he’s not a great fantasy option. He’s going to get knocked around at times and when he’s on, his team just isn’t scoring runs.
2. Ouch. J.J. Putz gave up four hits and three earned runs last night without recording an out. Over his last two appearances he’s given up five earned runs in 0.1 innings of work. If he’s reverted back to the reliever who lost his job in Seattle, the Mets may look for other 8th inning options.
3. He’s only owned in 7% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues but he’s batting .304 on the season and over the last month he’s .359/.427/.511 with two home runs and 15 RBI. His name is Andy LaRoche, and you might consider taking a look at him in your fantasy league.

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Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.

Well, I wouldn’t go that far, but Melvin over at The Sacrifice Bunt has posted some interesting drawings of possible changes being made to Petco Park. It seems as if the right field wall is moving in.

Adrian Gonzalez owners are rejoicing. Jake Peavy owners… not so much.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten first basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - No doubt about who should top this list. Pujols is head and shoulders above the rest of a very good group of hitters. 100 runs | 37 HR | 116 RBI | 7 SB | .357
2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points better in the first half than in the second half. He also hit 15 more home runs in the first half than he did in the second half. Even with his poorer showing after the All-Star break, he still finished with monster numbers. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
3. Mark Teixeira, Los Angeles Angels - Couldn’t bring enough to push the Angels past the Red Sox in the playoffs, but he sure did help a lot of fantasy teams this season. 102 runs | 33 HR | 121 RBI | 2 SB | .308
4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies - I tried really hard not to place Howard this high due to his low .251 batting average. But, I couldn’t drop him any lower than the fourth spot due to his monster home run and RBI totals. 105 runs | 48 HR | 146 RBI | 1 SB | .251
5. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Hadn’t hit this well since 2003. The multi-position eligibility was nice too. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youk really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Cabrera needed a 30% increase in offensive production in the second half to make this top ten list. But, that’s why they play 162 games. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
8. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres - Gonzalez, very quietly, keeps upping his power production each year. It’s his batting average drop that kept him at #8 on this list and not in the top five. 103 runs | 36 HR | 119 RBI | 0 SB | .279
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - You get a slight drop off in home runs from Morneau compared to the rest of the guys on this list. But, the other offensive categories make up for it. 97 runs | 23 HR | 129 RBI | 0 SB | .300
10. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets - Delgado barely edged out Prince Fielder for the final spot on this list. He bounced back nicely from his poor showing in 2007 and had his best numbers since 2003. 96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271

Below is the pre-season list for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins
2. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays
3. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox
4. Carlos Guillen | Detroit Tigers
5. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox
6. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians
7. Richie Sexson | Seattle Mariners
8. Casey Kotchman | Los Angeles Angels
9. Kevin Millar | Baltimore Orioles
10. Billy Butler | Kansas City Royals
11. Dan Johnson | Oakland Athletics
12. Jason Giambi | New York Yankees
13. Lyle Overbay | Totonto Blue Jays
14. Ben Broussard | Texas Rangers

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers
4. Mark Teixeira | Atlanta Braves
5. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros
6. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs
7. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres
8. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies
9. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets
10. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers
11. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates
12. Dmitri Young | Washington Nationals
13. Conor Jackson | Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds
15. Rich Aurilia | San Francisco Giants
16. Mike Jacobs | Florida Marlins

If not for one Boston pitcher, the National League would have swept these fantasy baseball MVP awards this week. Nice job NL!

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto batted .391/.481/.870 while scoring six times. He also hit two home runs with 9 RBI. Russell Martin also had a good week going .304/.448/.435 with six runs, a home run, four RBI and a stolen base, but his performance was clearly a second place performance.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez narrowly edged out Lance Berkman (who won in week 4) for this week’s prize scoring seven times and knocking in six RBI with four home runs. Gonzalez averaged .385/.385/.885 last week.

Second Base: Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - Utley becomes the first three time winner of this award as scored five times, knocked three home runs, had five RBI, and even stole a base. His slash stats last week were .348/.423./783. He narrowly edged out Placido Polanco while Dan Uggla also garnered consideration.

Third Base: Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates - Bautista hit three home runs last week while scoring six times and driving in seven runs. He averaged .333/.370/.750 on the road to win this award .

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal finished just ahead of Jose Reyes for this award largely on his 11 runs scored. He also hit a home run, drove in four and stole two bases. His slash stats were .393/.452/.571.

Outfield: Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers - Kemp was the clear-cut winner this week and the second straight Dodger on the list this week. Kemp hit .407/.433/.556 with seven runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves - It usually takes a two-start pitcher to win this award, but Hudson was special last Friday night (and I was lucky enough to see this in person). Hudson faced off against Edison Volquez in a fantastic pitchers duel. Hudson pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 and walking zero.

Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon had only one save last week, but he also got two wins. In 4.1 innings of work he struck out three, walked zero, and gave up two hits on his way to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.46 WHIP.