Crooked Pitch

It’s round twelve. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10 and round 11.

• Round 12 : Pick 1(133) - @seniorcircuit - A.J. Burnett - This started my own run on pitchers pairing Burnett with Gallardo in back to back picks.  It seems I have drafted the New York Yankees big three signings, not really on purpose, it just happened that way. I see nothing wrong with Burnett in this spot with a great offense behind him I predict a 14 W/180 Ks/3.97 ERA/1.29 WHIP.
• Round 12 : Pick 2(134) - @jasoncollette - Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is someone I start looking at in the low teens because he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup. Depending on your in-season eligibility, he’ll qualify at catcher at some point in the season making him even more valuable - say a Ryan Doumit lite for 2009? He is still way too impatient at the plate and led the team in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone but it is not like there is anyone else around on the depth chart so he will have a very long leash from management.
• Round 12 : Pick 3(135) - @dowdyism - Ryan Dempster - Back from the depths last year, Dempster was a workhorse for the Cubs, throwing over 200 innings, and notching nearly as many strikeouts. The 2.96 ERA most likely isn’t repeatable, but his all around numbers make him a solid addition to my staff.
• Round 12: Pick 4(136) - @therotofeed - Adrian Beltre - Again, probably a little earlier than I need to go, but I like his consistency. Beltre gets you 25/85/270 every year. Except of course, in 2004, which was the last time his contract was up, when he basically doubled his normal production through either economic inspiration or magical potion. Hmm. Guess whose contract is up at the end of this year?  And guess who is still only 29 years old? Still got some of that potion?
• Round 12 : Pick 5(137) - @sporer - Lastings Milledge - Is it obvious that I like power-speed in my outfield? Milledge joins Kemp, Granderson and Young for now. His totals were nearly similar in each half, but it was the 81 fewer at-bats and 54 more batting average points that made it look so good. Milledge is another youngster with room to improve and I see another step forward in 2009.
• Round 12 : Pick 6(138) - @tommystv - David Price - I haven’t reached on any youth with uncertainty yet, so here I go. Starter or Reliever I’m down. I’m assuming he’ll be starting this year, but you never know we these things. Great talent regardless.
• Round 12 : Pick 7(139) - @xxldaddyo - Kerry Wood - Time to close out the Closer situation by picking up Kerry Wood here in the 12th Round. Wood was relatively healthy in 2008 (save for a three week blister ailment) and posted a 34 Saves for the Cubs. He’s moved from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and will have plenty of save opps for the Indians.
• Round 12 : Pick 8(140) - @jefeboy - Matt Cain - Waited a long time to take a second SP after taking my ace very early. The wins are a toss-up, but he showed lots of improvement in 2008 and I hope he keeps it up. He’s young, so who knows?
• Round 12 : Pick 9(141) - @fakebaseball - Javier Vazquez -Since I’m at the point where I’d like to start adding more pitchers to my roster, I chose Javier Vazquez, who in my mind is the best-available pitcher, and worthy of a 12th-round pick. For ‘09, I’m expecting 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9, which are undoubtedly very solid numbers from my #3 starter. I think he’ll find pitching in the NL more to his liking than pitching in the AL (where his home field was a bandbox, and where he regularly faced DHs).
• Round 12 : Pick 10(142) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Ryan - In the middle rounds, I look to build my pitching staff, and adding Ryan here gives me two solid closers and has me confident that I won’t have to be looking for one the rest of the way. The saves I have now I can live with. Ryan will get all the opportunities and it’s a full season away from the surgery that knocked him out. He should be back to where he was prior to the injury now.
• Round 12 : Pick 11(143) - @Angels2717 - Matt Garza - Matt Garza showed in the last half of the season and plaoffs that he can pitch at a high level and get some wins. He’s young and fresh and could have a breaout year this year. He might not pick up all of those K’s, but you can’t expect that kind of pitcher in the 12th round. What he will do is have a fairly low ERA and 14+ wins (hopefully).
• Round 12 : Pick 12(144) - @crookedpitch - Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco had a huge second half where he lowered his ERA almost a full point and struck out more than a batter per inning. I’m hoping that he continues on this trend in ‘09. I am worried a bit about the workload his arm undertook in ‘08. I’m willing to take this medium risk / high reward gamble in the 12th round.

It’s already February, pitchers and catchers reporting is just around the corner, football season is over… it’s time to get serious about fantasy baseball.

This Average Draft Position report is an interesting one. In January we saw some lists with big, BIG movers. Todays list can be described with one word; normalization. Over the past week at Mock Draft Central no player had a double digit (percentage wise) move in either direction of their ADP. To me this means that fantasy GM’s are calming down with their shuffling of players on their ranking lists for a while. This is typical as the lists in January needed some tweaking, but now that the tweaking is done, things should stay pretty similar until Spring Training gets going. As Spring Training progresses, the ADP charts will come alive again with rapid and dramatic risers and droppers.

Headed Up

• Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins | +7.4% - The rich get richer. Ramirez has been in the top spot for a while now. What this jump means is that more and more fantasy GM’s are agreeing that Hanley is the best selection in this draft. His ADP is 1.35, which is up from 1.45 last week.
• Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +7.2% - Utley is moving up the ADP ranks quickly as fears of his injured hip subside. He’s being taken in the early to middle second round (17.21 ADP) instead of the middle of the round (18.45 ADP) last week.
• Brandon Lyon | Detroit Tigers | +6.1% - Lyon signed with the Tigers last week and hasn’t been given the closers job, but will compete for it against Fernando Rodney in Spring Training. Lyon’s ADP rose from 290.88 to just inside a 23-round draft at 274.10.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | +5.6% - This 25-year-old just inked a new deal and is a solid last round flier for strikeouts and wins in a mixed-league. His ADP rose from 285.63 to a 23rd round 270.55.
• Chris Davis | Texas Rangers | +4.7% - Whether it’s third base or first base, fantasy GM’s don’t care. Davis belted 17 home runs in 295 at-bats last season and his sleeper status is still skyrocketing. His ADP is a 6th round 68.67, up from last weeks 71.89.
• Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | +3.8% - 27-year-old baker struck out 141 last season and won 11 games in 28 starts. He’s being taken in the 19th round (228.01 ADP) now instead of the 20th round (236.62 ADP) last week.

Other notables: Andy Pettitte (+7.5%) and Dustin Pedroia (+4.5%)

Headed Down

• Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals | -7.9% - Glaus had shoulder surgery and could miss up to three months. This has dropped him out of most mixed-league drafts (293.80 ADP), down from an ADP of 270.46.
• David Wright | New York Mets | -3.7% - Before you go crazy, this drop has nothing to do with Wrights ability as a fantasy stud. It’s simply a matter of numbers. If one elite stud risings big, other elite studs need to drop. Hanley Ramirez’ huge rise last week caused Wright to fall to an ADP of 4.34 from 4.18.
• Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | -3.4% - See David Wright above. Pujols dropped from 2.88 ADP to 2.98 ADP. This isn’t a big deal at all.
• Chris Volstad | Florida Marlins | -2.9% - Volstad is a solid late round sleeper pick. This is an interesting drop in perceived fantasy value here. He went from an ADP of 270.37 to 278.55.
• A.J. Burnett | New York Yankees | -2.6% - Is this the beginning of a lot of fantasy GM’s fearing that Burnett’s injury woes are not behind him? His ADP dropped to a 9th round 99.55 from 96.99.
• Brad Ziegler | Oakland Athletics | -1.9% - Ziegler and Devine are both in the running to become the A’s new closer. This makes it look like people are starting to think that Devine is in the drivers seat. Zieglers ADP dropped to 219.16 from 217.62 while Joey Devine has an ADP of 191.02.

Other notables: Prince Fiedler (-3.1%), Rafael Furcal (-2.6%), Ian Kinsler (-2.5%) and Matt Cain (-1.2%)

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Not that he’s on many fantasy baseball rosters, except for maybe the deepest of AL-only leagues, but Luke Hochevar left the game tonight with an undisclosed rib cage injury. Not to scream out only bad news about Royals baseball, you could do a lot worse than Mike Aviles for you shortstop or middle infield needs. He had two hits tonight and is hitting .320 over 262 at-bats.
2. Note to American League pitchers. You might want to rethink your strategy of walking Big Papi to get to Youk. Kevin Youkilis popped a two-run home run tonight, and drove in another run in the eigth after David Ortiz was intentionally walked. In the last week Youk is .364/.440/.955 with 8 runs scored, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.
3. A.J. Burnett was 5-0 over the last month with a 3.94 ERA going into tonight’s game. To say he continued to pitch well is an understatement. He threw eight strong innings allowing five hits and only one earned. He also struck out 13 batters while only walking one. Strong stuff!!
4. Since we’re on the subject of strong pitching performances tonight, let’s look at Rich Harden’s 10 strikeout night. He threw seven innings and only allowed two hits. He didn’t give up any runs or walk anyone. Harden is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per outing over his last seven starts, or 1.40 strikeouts per inning. It look as if pushing his start back so that Harden could pitch in cooler weather was a superb idea.
5. Tigers 4th outfielder Matt Joyce belted two home runs tonight and could start seeing more playing time. Also, don’t be surprised if he gets moved higher in the batting order (he currently hits 7th) when he plays.
6. Let’s add Kevin Slowey to the list of great pitching performances tonight. He struck out 12 and walked none in his seven innings of work. He only gave up one earned run and five hits tonight while earning his tenth win of the season.