Crooked Pitch

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.

White Sox minor league director Buddy Bell feels that 2007 first round draft pick (25th overall) Aaron Poreda will reach the majors in 2009. Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times thinks that the pitching prospect will fight for a rotation spot in Spring Training.

From minor-league director Buddy Bell gushing about him last week, to the Sox open to the idea of the 22-year-old lefty battling with Clayton Richard for the No. 5 spot in the starting rotation.

Now, all Poreda has to do is go and get it.

After one full season in the minors and a lights-out showing at this year’s Arizona Fall League, Poreda — the club’s first pick in the 2007 draft — has put himself into position to at least grab a bullpen spot.

The 6′6″ lefty combined for 27 starts in Advanced-A and Double-A. His record was 8-9 with a 3.13 ERA. In his 161 innings of work, Poreda struck out 118 batters while walking 40. Batters averaged .244 against him.

In the Arizona Fall League, Poreda has only been used in relief work. He’s pitched 8.2 innings in nine games, amassed a 5.19 ERA, and struck out 12 hitters while walking five.

One of the Phillies top hitting prospects is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League. Shortstop Jason Donald, through 18 games, is batting .459/.522/.803 with eight doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He’s leading the AFL in doubles, is fourth in base hits, third in batting average, and sixth in runs scored. Donald is following up a very successful 2008 season in Double-A Reading where he batted .307/.391/.497 with 19 doubles and 14 home runs. But, is this enough to become a blip on your fantasy radar?

Another impressive note regarding Donald’s Double-A season is the fact that he improved upon his batting average from 2007, his RBI total, and his home run total. To see a 23-year-old (he’s actually 24 now) kid do this says a lot about his willingness to learn and his ability to grow as a hitter.

Now, let’s look at some of the negative aspects keeping Donald from reaching any level of fantasy baseball production.

First off, he strikes out more than a guy with a .300-plus batting average should. At Double-A he struck out 86 times in 362 at-bats. That shakes out to a 76.2% contact rate, which not too many guys who hit .307 have. In the AFL he’s struck out 12 times in 61 at-bats. At least that brings his contact rate up to 80.3%, but it’s still not ideal for a guy who’s most likely gonna make the big club because of his batting average and not his power potential.

Another big issue keeping Donald out of Philadelphia is the position he plays. At shortstop, he’s not getting calle dup any time soon to displace Jimmy Rollins from his throne. And a switch over to the other middle infield spot is laughable due to Chase Utley. About the quickest way that I can see Donald making the Phillies 25-man roster is as a replacement to Pedro Feliz at third base. Folks have hinted at a possible switch for Donald in the past, but it hasn’t happened yet. And Feliz isn’t giving up his position to Donald just yet. You could ask for a higher batting average out of Feliz, but his glove and power potential are a bit better than Donald’s at this point. Donald did have 14 home runs and 19 doubles in Double-A in 2008. So, the power potential is there, but it hasn’t surfaced as it has in Feliz, yet.

If Donald keeps hitting like this for the duration of the AFL and he shows up at Spring Training still lighting it up, you may see talk of him making the club and joining the backup or utility infield committee of Iguchi, Dobbs, Cervenak, and Harman. But that’s not terribly likely. What’s more liekly is that the Phillies will want to get Donald as many at-bats as possible in the minors to aid in his development.

Down the road, Donald could become relevant in fantasy baseball. It, most likely, won’t be in the first half of 2009. But, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t keep an eye on him for the next little while. Those of you in fantasy leagues that use players from the minors should pay a little extra attention as he has deep keeper status.

Second base prospect Drew Sutton spent the entire 2008 season in Double-A Corpus Christi for the Astros hitting fairly well. His slash stats were .317/.408/.523 and he hit 39 doubles, 20 home runs, and knocked in 69 in 520 at-bats. But, it’s his sick 41 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League that are causing folks to think about Sutton as an addition to the Astros big club in 2009.

In 41 at-bats at the AFL, Sutton is batting .463/.579/.927 (read:1.506 OPS), has five doubles, four home runs and 14 RBI. He’s impressing Astros brass with his plate discipline and glove work, and his AFL manager feels he’s hitting himself onto the Astros club in 2009.

Said Scottsdale manager Shane Turner, “He’s shown more power that you’d think would come out of that body. He has a pretty good idea of the strike zone.”

Turner said Sutton also has impressed on defense. Because Astros outfielder Brian Bogusevic missed time early in the season because of a tweaked hamstring, Sutton was asked to play in the outfield. He played four games in center, four at third and three at short.

“It’s a hard thing when you move around as much as he does,” Turner said. “But his bat is going to find a position for him. When you make a mistake to him, he’s not going to miss it.”

Sutton is a natural second baseman, but he did play shortstop and third base in 2008. If he continues on this torrid pace, the Astros could give him a chance to win the third base job in Spring Training. These are all big ifs, but Sutton should be on your radar from this point forward.

Here are two notes about catching prospects from Arizona Fall League action.

• Baltimore’s top prospect Matt Wieters is following up a 2008 minor league season, where he hit a combined 27 home runs and batted .355 in Advanced-A and Double-A, with a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. In 33 at-bats he’s .333/.463/.455 with two doubles, a triple, and five RBI. He’s also throwing out catchers at a pleasing rate and started at catcher for the National Rising Stars in the recent Rising Stars Showcase.
• Atlanta prospect Tyler Flowers had Braves fans whispering his name last Spring Training as he previewed his power potential. He didn’t make the big club, but he did belt 17 home runs for Advanced-A Myrtle Beach. He’s showing off again this off-season in the AFL as he’s hit five home runs in nine games and is batting .467/.543/1.100.

It hasn’t been decided who will be manning first base when the Yankees begin play in 2009. Cuban prospect Juan Miranda is trying to convince the Yankees that it should be him with his early play in the Arizona Fall League.

In four AFL games Miranda is 9 for 16 with slash stats of .563/.588/1.125. Of his nine hits, five were doubles and two triples. He also has four RBI.

In 356 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, Miranda batted .287 with 22 doubles, 12 home runs, and a 79:55 strikeout to walk ratio.