Crooked Pitch

We’re into round eight now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, and round 7.

• Round 8 : Pick 1(85) - @seniorcircuit - Torii Hunter - After filling two scarce infield positions and one of the catcher spots I was looking for more 20/20 outfielders. I think Hunter will get comfortable and come close to his numbers of 2007. I think 90/23/85/20/.280 is a reasonable projection for him in 2009.
• Round 8 : Pick 2(86) - @jasoncollette - Roy Oswalt - Hopefully the Oswalt we saw from April to June is gone forever. From July 1 on last year, 10 wins, a 2.22 ERA is the Roy we all know and love. Last year’s 3.54 ERA was the highest of his entire career; quite impressive considering his home ballpark. Oswalt continues to go later than I think he should in drafts.
• Round 8 : Pick 3(87) - @dowdyism - Chad Billingsley - A low 3’s ERA and in the neighborhood of 200 strikeouts - I’ll take that for my number two starter any day of the week.  Billingsley did tack on over 50 more innings in 2008 than in 2007, but his numbers stayed consistent across the board.  The broken leg he suffered is the offseason is reportedly completely healed, so I am looking for a repeat of 2008.
• Round 8: Pick 4(88) - @therotofeed - Ervin Santana - Most people don’t know this, but his given name is also Johan Santana.  For reals. He didn’t want to get mixed up with the original Johan so he chose Ervin on the basis that he thought it sounded cool. I think another season like last year sounds cool, and that he’ll do it. He’s not yet 26 years old and he was flat out dominant in 08.
• Round 8 : Pick 5(89) - @sporer - John Lackey - A draft day value last year thanks to starting the season the shelf for six weeks, Lackey was elite upon arrival due in large part to a 91% strand rate. However, the wheels fell off in the 2nd half of the season again tied to strand rate which was merely 69%. On the whole, he remains an upper crust starting pitcher that can be counted on for 200+ innings with good ratios and enough strikeouts to remain effective and help your fantasy team’s bottom line.
• Round 8 : Pick 6(90) - @tommystv - Scott Kazmir - I don’t go pitcher early, but when I do go I go hard. Took Kazmir as best pitcher on the board. For the longest time he was a legit pitcher that just couldn’t get Ws, well the Rays win now.
• Round 8 : Pick 7(91) - @xxldaddyo - Troy Tulowitzki - After seeing the run on pitchers, we were tempted to continue the streak by taking Dice-K, but there were far more #2 pitchers still available than there were quality shortstops. Tulo will be back in 09. He hit .321 in the 2H last year and should be good for .290 / 100 R / 15+ HR.
• Round8 : Pick 8(92) - @jefeboy - Aubrey Huff -I guess most folks don’t expect him to repeat his 2008 numbers. I don’t either, but if he comes close he’ll earn this spot easily. I need some power, and while he may not get 32 again, he’s got to be good for 25+.
• Round 8 : Pick 9(93) - @fakebaseball - Jay Bruce - Since I’ve taken mostly older, steadier players (which isn’t how I usually draft, but younger players have been flying off the board in this particular draft), at the end of the 8th I went with a higher-risk upside pick in Bruce. I don’t think .275/27+ HR/10 SB is unreasonable in’09, and runs and RBIs should be good as well, hitting in the middle of the order as he’s projected. Best-case, he’ll put up Jason Bay-like numbers, which would make him a steal late in the 8th round.
• Round 8 : Pick 10(94) - @TheRoundtable - Daisuke Matsuzaka - When you select Dice-K, you need to know that your WHIP is going to take a hit. He gives you a heart attack on the mound every five days, but you can’t argue with the ultimate results. 18 wins last season and he could have had three or four more had he not missed a month. Batters don’t hit well against him, and he’s adjusted to the MLB better than anyone could have expected. If I’m only sacrificing WHIP, the other stats certainly make up for it at this point. Plus, the run on starting pitching had me thinking that Webb looked lonely.
• Round 8 : Pick 11(95) - @Angels2717 - Rich Harden - The only thing that worried me about this pick was the chance of injury. But a healthy Harden is a monster pitcher. With run support from the Cubs, if stayed healthy, he should produce some great numbers. I usually wouldn’t go for a second pitcher at this point, but there wasn’t much options and I wanted another solid pitcher.
• Round 8 : Pick 12(96) - @crookedpitch - Chone Figgins - If healthy, this guy could play in 150+ games. If he sees 150+ games he’ll steal 50+, bank on it. I am with this pick.

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten third basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. David Wright, New York Mets - Wright is just a man among boys at the third base position. He does it all! 115 runs | 33 HR | 124 RBI | 15 SB | .302
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - It’s just nasty to consider 2008 an off year fantasy speaking for A-Rod. He’s still got first round talent. 104 runs | 35 HR | 103 RBI | 18 SB | .302
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - The elite fantasy third basemen used to only be A-Rod and Wright. Now, you can add Braun’s name to that list, if only he were going to play 3B anymore. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
4. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Huff might be too old to keep these numbers up going forward. But, 2008 was one heck of a ride. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Fourteen games was just enough to qualify at third base. His numbers are so good he’d be on any top ten list, no matter what position. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youkilis really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - His flirtation with .400 didn’t last as long as he’d hoped. But, he proved, once again, that he’s one of the best pure hitters in the game. 82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364
8. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs - Ramirez might not be hitting as many home runs as in years past, but his run production is still among the best. 97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289
9. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins - Cantu had a breakout year in 2008, and could get better. 92 runs | 29 HR | 95 RBI | 6 SB | .277
10. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles - Had a fantastic second half, but late season injuries and his age could hurt his draft status next season. 77 runs | 23 HR | 104 RBI | 3 SB | .285

Below is the pre-season ranking list, for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees
2. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox
4. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels
5. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners
6. Troy Glaus | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals
9. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers
10. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics
12. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey Blake | Cleveland Indians
14. Mike Lamb | Minnesota Twins
15. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays
16. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers
17. Joe Crede | Chicago White Sox
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. David Wright | New York Mets
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs
4. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves
6. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds
9. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ty Wigginton | Houston Astros
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies
13. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Jose Castillo | Florida Marlins

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten first basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - No doubt about who should top this list. Pujols is head and shoulders above the rest of a very good group of hitters. 100 runs | 37 HR | 116 RBI | 7 SB | .357
2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points better in the first half than in the second half. He also hit 15 more home runs in the first half than he did in the second half. Even with his poorer showing after the All-Star break, he still finished with monster numbers. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
3. Mark Teixeira, Los Angeles Angels - Couldn’t bring enough to push the Angels past the Red Sox in the playoffs, but he sure did help a lot of fantasy teams this season. 102 runs | 33 HR | 121 RBI | 2 SB | .308
4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies - I tried really hard not to place Howard this high due to his low .251 batting average. But, I couldn’t drop him any lower than the fourth spot due to his monster home run and RBI totals. 105 runs | 48 HR | 146 RBI | 1 SB | .251
5. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Hadn’t hit this well since 2003. The multi-position eligibility was nice too. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youk really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Cabrera needed a 30% increase in offensive production in the second half to make this top ten list. But, that’s why they play 162 games. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
8. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres - Gonzalez, very quietly, keeps upping his power production each year. It’s his batting average drop that kept him at #8 on this list and not in the top five. 103 runs | 36 HR | 119 RBI | 0 SB | .279
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - You get a slight drop off in home runs from Morneau compared to the rest of the guys on this list. But, the other offensive categories make up for it. 97 runs | 23 HR | 129 RBI | 0 SB | .300
10. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets - Delgado barely edged out Prince Fielder for the final spot on this list. He bounced back nicely from his poor showing in 2007 and had his best numbers since 2003. 96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271

Below is the pre-season list for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins
2. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays
3. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox
4. Carlos Guillen | Detroit Tigers
5. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox
6. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians
7. Richie Sexson | Seattle Mariners
8. Casey Kotchman | Los Angeles Angels
9. Kevin Millar | Baltimore Orioles
10. Billy Butler | Kansas City Royals
11. Dan Johnson | Oakland Athletics
12. Jason Giambi | New York Yankees
13. Lyle Overbay | Totonto Blue Jays
14. Ben Broussard | Texas Rangers

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers
4. Mark Teixeira | Atlanta Braves
5. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros
6. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs
7. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres
8. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies
9. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets
10. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers
11. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates
12. Dmitri Young | Washington Nationals
13. Conor Jackson | Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds
15. Rich Aurilia | San Francisco Giants
16. Mike Jacobs | Florida Marlins