Crooked Pitch

We’re starting double digit round numbers now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8 and round 9.

• Round 10 : Pick 1(109) - @seniorcircuit - Mark DeRosa - One of my favorite guys to target this year in the draft because of his position eligibility, according to most league rules he should be eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF. But I don’t see him increasing his power numbers this season just being a steady producer at one of your infield. He’s the type of guy who won’t be an elite option at a position but won’t hurt you in the long run. Expect 85/17/80/.280 from him in 2009.
• Round 10 : Pick 2(110) - @jasoncollette - Mike Aviles - Aviles is bound to disappoint those who are expecting more of what he delivered last year but given how thin the middle infield is, the fact he qualifies at both SS and 2B make him a bit more valuable.
• Round 10 : Pick 3(111) - @dowdyism - Jose Lopez - I missed the run on the top tier second basemen, so when some of the second grouping came off the board, I grabbed Lopez. I think many of the guys in this area are interchangeable, but I really liked Lopez’s jump in SLG% while posting a career high in AVG.
• Round 10: Pick 4(112) - @therotofeed - Mike Jacobs - I think this is the first year Jacobs hits above .280, and that he gets plenty of PT in Kansas City, which incidentally has a better team than people realize. I’m looking for 35 HR too.
• Round 10 : Pick 5(113) - @sporer - Derek Jeter - I about vomited when I made it official that I had taken two Yankees in a row, but Jeter was the right pick here. He is generally overrated to the nth degree, but he almost ended up a value pick in this league of sharks reticent to fall victim to the Yankee mystique. When you draw a ton of your value from runs and batting average, you’re no longer a glamor pick, but getting a $20ish dollar value at middle infield in the 10th round is a coup. My Jeter pick came AFTER Mike Aviles was taken… that floored me. Not that Aviles was a wrong pick, more that I was in a league with players so adept at seeing past name.
• Round 10 : Pick 6(114) - @tommystv - Edison Volquez - Amazing start and then tapered off a bit. I don’t think this is a Nomo situation he hasn’t been solved, he just tired late. Ball Park is another minus, but I think my backyard would be sufficient enough to keep that changeup within it’s confines.
• Round 10 : Pick 7(115) - @xxldaddyo - Francisco Liriano - The second year back from Tommy John surgery is when pitchers are finally healthy. Although Liriano showed some signs of life in the 2H of 08 (3.91 ERA with 6 wins in 76 IP), he’ll be ready to shine in 09.  Combined with Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, Liriano gives my team to front end Aces to provide a wicked 1-2 punch at the top of my roto rotation. And at the end of this season, Liriano will have Twinkie fans in the Metrodome simply asking, “Johan who?”
• Round 10 : Pick 8(116) - @jefeboy - Bengie Molina - Easily a top-ten catcher, if not top five, so I’m thrilled to round out a very solid IF with the Benge. I’m going to need his HRs.
• Round 10 : Pick 9(117) - @fakebaseball - Chris Iannetta - I almost always avoid first-tier catchers in drafts because they don’t provide enough offense despite the positional scarcity. In ‘09, I have as my second tier Doumit, Iannetta, B. Molina, and Napoli, with a drop-off after that. My goal is to have both catchers in a two-C league from this tier. As Doumit and Molina were already gone by my turn in the tenth, and round 10 or later is where I feel comfortable taking a tier-2 catcher, I drafted Iannetta. He’s a potentially higher-upside C who I think could even be a lower 1st tier catcher by 2010.
• Round 10 : Pick 10(118) - @TheRoundtable - Bobby Jenks - Time to finally grab a closer. Jenks was the best and most reliable of what was left on the board. If you take a look at the fact as many as 8 jobs are time shares and others could change hands, I’ll take knowing that he will be the guy at the end of games as solace.
• Round 10 : Pick 11(119) - @Angels2717 - Johnny Damon - Damon has shown that he can play at a fairly high level but hasn’t been too consistent about it. I’m looking for a solid year out of him and hopefully consistent. He’s now playing in a very stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he’ll be at the top of Tex and A-Rod.  I’m also looking for a high average season after picking my last OF in Dunn.
• Round 10 : Pick 12(120) - @crookedpitch - Felix Hernandez - King Felix… What to say here… On the bad side of the coin he pitches for a bad team which will make wins hard to come by. On the good side he’s a strike out monster, just notched his 3rd consecutive season of 190+ innings pitched, and is only 22-years-old.

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten catchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins - Mauer scored more runs and out hit every catcher in MLB. And the margin with which he did so was amazingly large. 98 runs | 9 HR | 85 RBI | 1 SB | .328
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves - Tough decision here as each of the top three catchers are statistically different, and studly. McCann’s home runs and RBI, plus his .301 batting average, almost warranted top billing, but Mauer was just too good. But you can argue for any of these three guys to top the list. 68 runs | 23 HR | 87 RBI | 5 SB | .301
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers - Martin is the most well rounder catcher, statistically speaking, of the whole bunch. Had he hit closer to .300, he’d easily be the number one ranked catcher. He also played 11 games at third base. That’ll help out his knees from time to time, and if 11 games is enough to qualify at a position in your fantasy league, Martin’s value rises. 87 runs | 13 HR | 69 RBI | 18 SB | .280
4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs - Soto’s numbers are very similar to those of McCann’s. But his lower batting average keep him out of the elite three at the catcher position. 66 runs | 23 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | .285
5. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates - Emerged in 2008, maybe you can even call it a breakout. His numbers were fantastic and it’s fun to imagine how good they would have been if he’d received 100 more at-bats. 71 runs | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | .318
6. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants - You gotta love his RBI production and his home run total and batting average were solid too. It’s too bad he didn’t score a lot. 46 runs | 16 HR | 95 RBI | 0 SB | .292
7. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians - He only got the opportunity to catch full time when Victor Martinez went down. But, he sure did make the most of his 352 at-bats. 67 runs | 21 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | .261
8. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox - These are pretty good numbers for the eighth ranked catcher on this list. 66 runs | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 1 SB | .281
9. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies - Iannetta finally lived up to his potential and had a break-out season. Remember that these numbers were produced from only 333 at-bats. 50 runs | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .264
10. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles - Hernandez bounced back from a miserable 2007 season . He got his power stroke back, but it’d be nice if the O’s could drive him across the plate a bit more. 49 runs | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .257

Listed below are the pre-season rankings. You can see how great I predicted things or laugh at how far off I was.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians
2. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins
4. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers
6. Ivan Rodriguez | Detroit Tigers
7. Jason Varitek | Boston Red Sox
8. Ramon Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox
10. John Buck | Kansas City Royals
11. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics
12. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels
13. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays
14. Gregg Zaun | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals
16. Gerald Laird | Texas Rangers
17. Mike Redmond | Minnesota Twins
18. Jeff Mathis | Los Angeles Angels
19. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves
3. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants
4. Carlos Ruiz | Philadephia Phillies
5. Johnny Estrada | FA
6. Ronny Paulino | Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Paul LoDuca | Washington Nationals
8. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs
9. David Ross | Cincinnati Reds
10. J.R.Towels | Houston Astros
11. Michael Barrett | San Diego Padres
12. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Yorvit Torreabla | Colorado Rockies
15. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals
16. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Brian Schneider |New York Mets
18. Josh Bard | San Diego Padres
19. Javier Valentin | Cincinnati Reds
20. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies
21. Ramon Castro | New York Mets
22. Miguel Montero | Arizona Diamondbacks
23. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals