Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 8.

1. When the Giants signed Jesus Guzman away from the A’s, they guaranteed him an invitation to spring training. In 415 minor league at-bats last season, Guzman batted .349/.404/.545 with 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He tore up the Venezuelan League recently and if he continues tearing it up this spring the Giants will need to look at getting him some big league at-bats. As a 3B/SS he might not take too much playing time from Pedro Sandoval, who also tore up the Venezuelan League (see above link), and the mix at shortstop got even more jumbled with the addition of Edgar Renteria. There are many questions left to be answered on the left side of the Giants infield.
2. I can’t wait to see Mark Prior climbing draft boards now that the Padres have signed him to a minor league deal. How many times over the next few months are we going to read, “If Prior is healthy…”? His average draft position is sure to be on the rise, but if you’re crazy enough to draft him you deserve the angst he’ll cause you by May. Prior is best left to the waiver wire until he make a few starts at the big league level. He just isn’t a draftable commodity.
3. As someone who just drafted Alex Gordon and Billy Butler this graph showing how probably Royals hitters are to hit a certain number of home runs in 2009 is a must read. To end the suspense… Butler’s chance of hitting 20 dingers is 15.4% and Gordon’s is 35%. There are other hitters in this study, so go check it out.
4. Scott Kazmir has put on 20 pounds in the off-season, but in a good way. The extra weight is due to hitting the gym.
5. The Dodgers are expected to cut Andruw Jones today. He’s been seen around the ATL quite a bit lately. Is he the answer to Braves need for a left fiedler?
6. You can add Miguel Montero to the list of catchers the Red Sox are interested in obtaining. Montero has pretty good pop, but has yet to show he can hit for any kind of average. And he’d probably platoon with Bard anyway, so this might not vault his fantasy value as much as you’d think.
7. One of the hottest sleeper candidates last season at the pitcher position was Ian Snell. That didn’t quite work out. His name is popping up again this off-season. Pat Lackey shares with us why that is.
8. Fantasy Ball Junkie has an interesting post about the five most fantasy significant transactions so far this off-season.

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results

Immediately making changes in the off-season, the KC Royals and the Florida Marlins swap players. First baseman Mike Jacobs is joining the Royals and relief pitcher Leo Nunez is on his way to Miami.

Jacobs hit 32 home runs and drove in 93 in 2008 for the Marlins but the fantasy goodness stops there. He only batted .247 and had a very low 67 runs. His run total is low because this guy never seems to get on base, which is proven by his .299 on-base percentage.

Expect Jacobs to split time between DH and first base, which leaves this question. What do the Royals do with Ryan Shealy and Billy Butler now that there is a third person to take up at-bats?

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Roto Savants. It’s been an extra week since my last article so I am going to try to get back on track for weekly updates. I will still have one of each of the following (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.

C - Kelly Shoppach- He will never replace Victor when healthy, but he is a good stopgap at the catcher position. I would use him as an injury fill in/ backup in mixed leagues. He has good power, but lacking in the average and OBP categories.

He is currently owned in 30% of leagues.

CI – Billy Butler - He was discussed on The True Guru show last week along with later suggestion Adam Jones. I think he has turned it around and with enough AB’s he will be a usable player. Don’t expect more than 10 homers in the second half, but a good pickup for a breakout second half.

He is only owned in 35% of CBS leagues.

MI – Nomar Garciaparra - Kind of a cheat here, but at 4 games played at SS he should be eligible by Friday for MI. Could be a surprise second half player if healthy with SS eligibility. He has shown some power since coming back and may help for those with a week SS/MI option.

He is only owned in 22% of CBS leagues.

OF – Adam Jones - A slow first half has dropped his ownership and made him a good pickup for a strong second half. The average is up over .280 now although the power is still lacking. I could still see a 15/15 season, which would make for a good pickup.

He is only owned in 39% of CBS leagues.

SP – Ian Snell - I was going to suggest Buchholz, but since my recommendation he has crossed my threshold of 60% ownership. Snell though is still available in many leagues and hopefully a DL stop has helped fix what was bothering him. His bad season has been based largely on luck factors and a dropped K/9. If he ups the K/9 to last years rate he should be a plus. He still won’t get wins in Pittsburgh though.

He is owned in 29% of leagues.

RP – Joel Zumaya - I still like him to close, but there have been rumblings of making him into a starter next year. I don’t think this will factor in this year and any need for a closer will be filled by Zumaya, but keeper leagues should keep him in mind as a possible back end starter for next year.

He is only owned in 27% as of this morning on CBS.