Crooked Pitch

I received an e-mail from Gary asking about tips for exposure and linking to his new fantasy baseball blog. I told him I was happy to let him show off his chops right here at Crooked Pitch. He did just that, and with a topic that is near and dear to my heart. When you’re done reading this, check out his blog at Gary’s Fantasy Baseball Info.

As we all very well know, relief pitching is a vital aspect of any winning fantasy baseball squad.  Closers are often scarce, and with the exception of a few key players, not always very reliable.  However, there is a solution to this ongoing problem, and that solution is MIDDLE RELIEF!

In this article, I will review some middle relievers who are achieving higher point totals than their closing counterparts, as well as some closers who have not been pulling their proverbial weight.  The middle relievers I will discuss have been putting up well above average numbers so far, yet they are not owned in the majority of fantasy leagues.  Before analyzing why these players would be valuable on any fantasy team, we must first discuss why they are still available in the first place.

I have noticed that many fantasy players tackle the subject of relief pitching with the idea that they should get as many saves as possible, while having the least amount of blown saves.  Why this is obviously true, there is a lot more going on than that when it comes to relief pitching.  What many players fail to notice is that a top notch middle reliever who throws a lot of innings, with a good K/BB ratio, is very capable of putting up just as many points as a mid-level closer.  Some may scoff at the concept of a “top notch middle reliever,” however, in an age when starting pitchers depart after 5 innings; this is a concept that surely exists. 

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It’s round twelve. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10 and round 11.

• Round 12 : Pick 1(133) - @seniorcircuit - A.J. Burnett - This started my own run on pitchers pairing Burnett with Gallardo in back to back picks.  It seems I have drafted the New York Yankees big three signings, not really on purpose, it just happened that way. I see nothing wrong with Burnett in this spot with a great offense behind him I predict a 14 W/180 Ks/3.97 ERA/1.29 WHIP.
• Round 12 : Pick 2(134) - @jasoncollette - Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is someone I start looking at in the low teens because he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup. Depending on your in-season eligibility, he’ll qualify at catcher at some point in the season making him even more valuable - say a Ryan Doumit lite for 2009? He is still way too impatient at the plate and led the team in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone but it is not like there is anyone else around on the depth chart so he will have a very long leash from management.
• Round 12 : Pick 3(135) - @dowdyism - Ryan Dempster - Back from the depths last year, Dempster was a workhorse for the Cubs, throwing over 200 innings, and notching nearly as many strikeouts. The 2.96 ERA most likely isn’t repeatable, but his all around numbers make him a solid addition to my staff.
• Round 12: Pick 4(136) - @therotofeed - Adrian Beltre - Again, probably a little earlier than I need to go, but I like his consistency. Beltre gets you 25/85/270 every year. Except of course, in 2004, which was the last time his contract was up, when he basically doubled his normal production through either economic inspiration or magical potion. Hmm. Guess whose contract is up at the end of this year?  And guess who is still only 29 years old? Still got some of that potion?
• Round 12 : Pick 5(137) - @sporer - Lastings Milledge - Is it obvious that I like power-speed in my outfield? Milledge joins Kemp, Granderson and Young for now. His totals were nearly similar in each half, but it was the 81 fewer at-bats and 54 more batting average points that made it look so good. Milledge is another youngster with room to improve and I see another step forward in 2009.
• Round 12 : Pick 6(138) - @tommystv - David Price - I haven’t reached on any youth with uncertainty yet, so here I go. Starter or Reliever I’m down. I’m assuming he’ll be starting this year, but you never know we these things. Great talent regardless.
• Round 12 : Pick 7(139) - @xxldaddyo - Kerry Wood - Time to close out the Closer situation by picking up Kerry Wood here in the 12th Round. Wood was relatively healthy in 2008 (save for a three week blister ailment) and posted a 34 Saves for the Cubs. He’s moved from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and will have plenty of save opps for the Indians.
• Round 12 : Pick 8(140) - @jefeboy - Matt Cain - Waited a long time to take a second SP after taking my ace very early. The wins are a toss-up, but he showed lots of improvement in 2008 and I hope he keeps it up. He’s young, so who knows?
• Round 12 : Pick 9(141) - @fakebaseball - Javier Vazquez -Since I’m at the point where I’d like to start adding more pitchers to my roster, I chose Javier Vazquez, who in my mind is the best-available pitcher, and worthy of a 12th-round pick. For ‘09, I’m expecting 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9, which are undoubtedly very solid numbers from my #3 starter. I think he’ll find pitching in the NL more to his liking than pitching in the AL (where his home field was a bandbox, and where he regularly faced DHs).
• Round 12 : Pick 10(142) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Ryan - In the middle rounds, I look to build my pitching staff, and adding Ryan here gives me two solid closers and has me confident that I won’t have to be looking for one the rest of the way. The saves I have now I can live with. Ryan will get all the opportunities and it’s a full season away from the surgery that knocked him out. He should be back to where he was prior to the injury now.
• Round 12 : Pick 11(143) - @Angels2717 - Matt Garza - Matt Garza showed in the last half of the season and plaoffs that he can pitch at a high level and get some wins. He’s young and fresh and could have a breaout year this year. He might not pick up all of those K’s, but you can’t expect that kind of pitcher in the 12th round. What he will do is have a fairly low ERA and 14+ wins (hopefully).
• Round 12 : Pick 12(144) - @crookedpitch - Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco had a huge second half where he lowered his ERA almost a full point and struck out more than a batter per inning. I’m hoping that he continues on this trend in ‘09. I am worried a bit about the workload his arm undertook in ‘08. I’m willing to take this medium risk / high reward gamble in the 12th round.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten closers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels - Set a Major league record with 62 saves, but saw his strikeouts drop by 15%, his WHIP go up and his batting average against go up. Fantasy owners couldn’t have cared less. 2 Wins | 62 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP
2. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals - A Kansas City closer making this list??? Who would have thunk it??? Soria was dominant from day one. You could even argue that Soria was more dominant than Rodriguez. 2 Wins | 42 Saves | 66 K’s | 1.60 ERA | 0.86 WHIP
3. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has re-emerged as a top notch closer. 2 Wins | 41 Saves | 92 K’s | 1.95 ERA | 1.23 WHIP
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - With the departure of Johan Santana many thought that Nathan’s save total would drop. It didn’t. 1 Win | 39 Saves | 74 K’s | 1.33 ERA | 0.90 WHIP
5. Mariano “Not Juan” Rivera, New York Yankees - Rivera isn’t the elite closer he used to be, but he’s still extremely good. Those six wins are nice too. Especially since he only blew one save. 6 Wins | 39 Saves | 77 K’s | 1.40 ERA | 0.67 WHIP
6. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox - Papelbon brought his save total up and really boosted his strikeout to walk ratio (5.60 in 2007 to 9.625 (77:8) in 2008). But his ERA also went up as did his number of blown saves. 5 Wins | 41 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.34 ERA | 0.95 WHIP
7. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros - Valverde ranks second on the saves list, but his ERA hurt his fantasy value some. he also had seven blown saves. 6 Wins | 44 Saves | 83 K’s | 3.37 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs - The smooth transition to the closer role was exactly what the Cubs needed. Now for Wood to become an elite closer his ERA will need to come down a bit. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 84 K’s | 3.26 ERA | 1.09 WHIP
9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds - Cordero has the the second highest WHIP of anyone on this list and his ERA isn’t one of an elite closer. But, he’s getting it done most of the time, and that was good enough for #9 here. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 78 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.41 WHIP
10. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - He’s not nearly the pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery, but he’s no slouch either. 2 Wins | 32 Saves | 58 K’s | 2.95 ERA | 1.28 WHIP

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins
3. J.J. Putz | Seattle Mariners
4. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels
5. Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
6. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
7. Huston Street | Oakland Athletics
8. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
9. Todd Jones | Detroit Tigers
10. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Joe Borowski | Cleveland Indians
12. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers
13. Jeremy Accardo | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Jamie Walker | Baltimore Orioles

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Takashi Saito | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Valverde | Houston Astros
3. Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
4. Billy Wagner | New York Mets
5. Trevor Hoffman | San Diego Padres
6. Chad Cordero | Washington Nationals
7. Manuel Corpas | Colorado Rockies
8. Jason Isringhausen | St. Louis Cardinals
9. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
10. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves
11. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamonbacks
12. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins
13. Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs
14. Eric Gagne | Milwaukee Brewers
15. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
16. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates