Crooked Pitch

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.