Crooked Pitch

I received an e-mail from Gary asking about tips for exposure and linking to his new fantasy baseball blog. I told him I was happy to let him show off his chops right here at Crooked Pitch. He did just that, and with a topic that is near and dear to my heart. When you’re done reading this, check out his blog at Gary’s Fantasy Baseball Info.

As we all very well know, relief pitching is a vital aspect of any winning fantasy baseball squad.  Closers are often scarce, and with the exception of a few key players, not always very reliable.  However, there is a solution to this ongoing problem, and that solution is MIDDLE RELIEF!

In this article, I will review some middle relievers who are achieving higher point totals than their closing counterparts, as well as some closers who have not been pulling their proverbial weight.  The middle relievers I will discuss have been putting up well above average numbers so far, yet they are not owned in the majority of fantasy leagues.  Before analyzing why these players would be valuable on any fantasy team, we must first discuss why they are still available in the first place.

I have noticed that many fantasy players tackle the subject of relief pitching with the idea that they should get as many saves as possible, while having the least amount of blown saves.  Why this is obviously true, there is a lot more going on than that when it comes to relief pitching.  What many players fail to notice is that a top notch middle reliever who throws a lot of innings, with a good K/BB ratio, is very capable of putting up just as many points as a mid-level closer.  Some may scoff at the concept of a “top notch middle reliever,” however, in an age when starting pitchers depart after 5 innings; this is a concept that surely exists. 

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We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten closers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels - Set a Major league record with 62 saves, but saw his strikeouts drop by 15%, his WHIP go up and his batting average against go up. Fantasy owners couldn’t have cared less. 2 Wins | 62 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP
2. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals - A Kansas City closer making this list??? Who would have thunk it??? Soria was dominant from day one. You could even argue that Soria was more dominant than Rodriguez. 2 Wins | 42 Saves | 66 K’s | 1.60 ERA | 0.86 WHIP
3. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has re-emerged as a top notch closer. 2 Wins | 41 Saves | 92 K’s | 1.95 ERA | 1.23 WHIP
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - With the departure of Johan Santana many thought that Nathan’s save total would drop. It didn’t. 1 Win | 39 Saves | 74 K’s | 1.33 ERA | 0.90 WHIP
5. Mariano “Not Juan” Rivera, New York Yankees - Rivera isn’t the elite closer he used to be, but he’s still extremely good. Those six wins are nice too. Especially since he only blew one save. 6 Wins | 39 Saves | 77 K’s | 1.40 ERA | 0.67 WHIP
6. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox - Papelbon brought his save total up and really boosted his strikeout to walk ratio (5.60 in 2007 to 9.625 (77:8) in 2008). But his ERA also went up as did his number of blown saves. 5 Wins | 41 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.34 ERA | 0.95 WHIP
7. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros - Valverde ranks second on the saves list, but his ERA hurt his fantasy value some. he also had seven blown saves. 6 Wins | 44 Saves | 83 K’s | 3.37 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs - The smooth transition to the closer role was exactly what the Cubs needed. Now for Wood to become an elite closer his ERA will need to come down a bit. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 84 K’s | 3.26 ERA | 1.09 WHIP
9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds - Cordero has the the second highest WHIP of anyone on this list and his ERA isn’t one of an elite closer. But, he’s getting it done most of the time, and that was good enough for #9 here. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 78 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.41 WHIP
10. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - He’s not nearly the pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery, but he’s no slouch either. 2 Wins | 32 Saves | 58 K’s | 2.95 ERA | 1.28 WHIP

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins
3. J.J. Putz | Seattle Mariners
4. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels
5. Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
6. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
7. Huston Street | Oakland Athletics
8. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
9. Todd Jones | Detroit Tigers
10. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Joe Borowski | Cleveland Indians
12. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers
13. Jeremy Accardo | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Jamie Walker | Baltimore Orioles

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Takashi Saito | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Valverde | Houston Astros
3. Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
4. Billy Wagner | New York Mets
5. Trevor Hoffman | San Diego Padres
6. Chad Cordero | Washington Nationals
7. Manuel Corpas | Colorado Rockies
8. Jason Isringhausen | St. Louis Cardinals
9. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
10. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves
11. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamonbacks
12. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins
13. Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs
14. Eric Gagne | Milwaukee Brewers
15. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
16. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates

I just couldn’t contain all this closer goodness to the top 10 anymore. So, now the list is comprised of 15 closers. The top two are the same as in my last top fantasy closers list, and seven of the ten from the first fantasy baseball closer list are still around.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera is still the stud of this group. I guess he’s not getting older, he’s getting better. Or maybe he just hasn’t faced the Red Sox enough to get banged around yet. Rivera has ten saves and a 12:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 15.0 innings pitched. His ERA is perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP is pretty darned close at 0.40.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan has 12 saves this season in 14.0 innings of work. He’s sporting a 14:3 strikeout to walk ratio and has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He gave up two earned runs and three hits in his last outing (while still recording the save) or his ERA and WHIP would be even better.
3. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge is nine for nine in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 17 innings, hence his 0.00 ERA. He also has a 0.82 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning, with 18 strikeouts and 6 walks.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon has blown two saves in his last three attempts and hasn’t looked sharp for about a week now (although Julio Lugo should be given the blown save on May 7th, not Paps). He’s got 2 wins, 2 losses and 11 saves this season and Papelbon’s ERA has risen almost a whole point in the last week to 2.41. His WHIP is still below one at 0.91 and he still has a great strikeout to walk ratio of 11.50 (23:2).
5. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez leads the majors in saves with 15 in 2008. But, that’s where his dominance stops. He’s got a weak 1.22 strikeout to walk ratio (11:9), and nowhere close to the 1.30 strikeouts per inning we’re used to seeing from him (2008 total is 0.72 K’s per inning). His ERA is 2.93 and his WHIP is 1.30.
6. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon has seemingly forgotten about his two blown saves in early April. He’s been a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities since April 9th, and has a total of 10 saves for the year. In 16 innings of work he’s struck out 12 and only walked 2. His ERA is 2.25 and his WHIP is 1.00.
7. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - Soria is certainly pitching well as he hasn’t given up an earned run all season. Heck, he’s only given up four hits in his 14.1 innings of work. Soria has eight saves and 16 strikeouts to only one walk so far. To go along with his perfect 0.00 ERA he has a 0.35 WHIP. Soria would be much higher on this list if the Royals played well enough to allow him more saves.
8. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner is in the same boat as Soria. His numbers are dominant, but he isn’t getting a great number of saves. He only has seven saves, but he’s sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. He also has struck out 16 batters in 14.2 innings and only walked three.
9. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has been pretty solid this season going nine for ten in save opportunities. His only blown save is also the only appearance in which he’s given up any runs (he also gave up 4 of his 6 hits for the season in that one bad outing). In 14 innings of work, Percival has 13 strikeouts and only one walk. His ERA is 1.93 and he has a very nice 0.50 WHIP.
10. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps is a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities and has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (only 10 in 16.2 innings), Capps has been the model of consistency, only blowing two saves since taking over the closers role in June of last season.
11. Jon Rauch | Washington Nationals - Rauch has recorded four saves since being promoted to the closers position when Chad Cordero went to the DL. Rauch has seven total saves for the year and 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work. His ERA is 2.95 and his WHIP is 1.04.
12. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants - Wilson is tied for 4th in the majors with 11 saves. He’s also striking out more than one batter per inning (17 K’s in 16.0 innings) but his 3.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP drop him down to 12th on this list.
13. Huston Street | Oakland A’s - Street is nine for eleven in save opportunities this season, and a good portion of his 3.86 ERA came from one bad outing to start the season against the Red Sox. He’s got a 3.60 strikeout to walk ratio (18:5) and more strikeouts (18) than innings pitched (16.1).
14. George Sherrill | Baltimore Orioles - It’s tough for me to place a guy who’s 2nd in MLB in saves down at #14 on the closers list, but Sherrill has some problems to go along with his 13 saves. He’s striking out less than a batter per inning (13 K’s in 16.1 innings), but more importantly he’s walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings of work. His ERA is also high at 4.41 and his WHIP is 1.29.
15. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins - Gregg has seven saves this season to go along with three wins and two losses. While his 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP aren’t terrible, he’s got some problems with 12 strikeouts and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. And it’s not like Gregg had one bad game and that’s why his numbers are high. He has given up, at least, one run in six of the eighteen times he’s taken the mound this season.

Here’s the second installment of my fantasy baseball top 10 closers list.  There are a few new faces as only five closers from our first top 10 closers list made it to the second.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera has eight saves in eight save opportunities. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.36. In his 11.0 innings of work he has 11 strikeouts and zero walks. These numbers are more dominant than any other closer in the game right now.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan also has eight saves in eight opportunities. His ERA and WHIP are identical at 0.90 and he’s worked 10.0 innings of relief. He has 10 strikeouts and only one walk.
3. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - You may be asking what a guy with only six saves is doing at #3 on this list. Well, this list is for fantasy value, not just save totals, and Soria is pretty valuable. He has a 13:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of work. And he also has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.36 WHIP.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Paps is the first closer with an ERA above 1.00. His is 2.25, but that was mostly a result of one bad outing against the Yankees. He has eight saves, but what is really impressive (and the reason he’s 4th on this list and not 7th or 8th) is his 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings pitched.
5. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner has six saves and a 0.00 ERA with a 0.42 WHIP. He did just blow a save last night but his ERA didn’t suffer due to a Jose Reyes throwing error. He has a 12:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings of work.
6. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has pitched in 9.0 innings and has recorded 5 saves. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.33. He has a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
7. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has six saves in 11.0 innings of work. He also has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is a little rough at 12:6, but none of those walks have hurt him yet. Don’t expect that to remain true if he keep up this K:BB pace.
8. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon hasn’t been the epitome of stability as he’s already blown two saves. But, his eight saves has him tied for third in MLB. His 2.77 ERA is a bit high, but his 0.85 WHIP and his 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio are keeping him grounded (and on this list).
9. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps has pitched in 11.2 innings in 2008 and has recorded 6 saves with a 8:2 strikeout to walk ratio. He has a 2.31 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.
10. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’s ERA is ballooned at 3.86 due to his only blown save against Cleveland. He also has a high WHIP (1.54) as he’s given up nine hits and nine walks in 11.2 innings. He is leading MLB with 11 saves, so it’s not all bad here. He typically strikes out a lot more batters than innings pitched, but that hasn’t been the case so far in 2008 with only 9 strikeouts. The only solid aspect of his game right now is his league leading save total. Most of his other stats are currently suspect.