Crooked Pitch

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

It’s already February, pitchers and catchers reporting is just around the corner, football season is over… it’s time to get serious about fantasy baseball.

This Average Draft Position report is an interesting one. In January we saw some lists with big, BIG movers. Todays list can be described with one word; normalization. Over the past week at Mock Draft Central no player had a double digit (percentage wise) move in either direction of their ADP. To me this means that fantasy GM’s are calming down with their shuffling of players on their ranking lists for a while. This is typical as the lists in January needed some tweaking, but now that the tweaking is done, things should stay pretty similar until Spring Training gets going. As Spring Training progresses, the ADP charts will come alive again with rapid and dramatic risers and droppers.

Headed Up

• Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins | +7.4% - The rich get richer. Ramirez has been in the top spot for a while now. What this jump means is that more and more fantasy GM’s are agreeing that Hanley is the best selection in this draft. His ADP is 1.35, which is up from 1.45 last week.
• Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +7.2% - Utley is moving up the ADP ranks quickly as fears of his injured hip subside. He’s being taken in the early to middle second round (17.21 ADP) instead of the middle of the round (18.45 ADP) last week.
• Brandon Lyon | Detroit Tigers | +6.1% - Lyon signed with the Tigers last week and hasn’t been given the closers job, but will compete for it against Fernando Rodney in Spring Training. Lyon’s ADP rose from 290.88 to just inside a 23-round draft at 274.10.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | +5.6% - This 25-year-old just inked a new deal and is a solid last round flier for strikeouts and wins in a mixed-league. His ADP rose from 285.63 to a 23rd round 270.55.
• Chris Davis | Texas Rangers | +4.7% - Whether it’s third base or first base, fantasy GM’s don’t care. Davis belted 17 home runs in 295 at-bats last season and his sleeper status is still skyrocketing. His ADP is a 6th round 68.67, up from last weeks 71.89.
• Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | +3.8% - 27-year-old baker struck out 141 last season and won 11 games in 28 starts. He’s being taken in the 19th round (228.01 ADP) now instead of the 20th round (236.62 ADP) last week.

Other notables: Andy Pettitte (+7.5%) and Dustin Pedroia (+4.5%)

Headed Down

• Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals | -7.9% - Glaus had shoulder surgery and could miss up to three months. This has dropped him out of most mixed-league drafts (293.80 ADP), down from an ADP of 270.46.
• David Wright | New York Mets | -3.7% - Before you go crazy, this drop has nothing to do with Wrights ability as a fantasy stud. It’s simply a matter of numbers. If one elite stud risings big, other elite studs need to drop. Hanley Ramirez’ huge rise last week caused Wright to fall to an ADP of 4.34 from 4.18.
• Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | -3.4% - See David Wright above. Pujols dropped from 2.88 ADP to 2.98 ADP. This isn’t a big deal at all.
• Chris Volstad | Florida Marlins | -2.9% - Volstad is a solid late round sleeper pick. This is an interesting drop in perceived fantasy value here. He went from an ADP of 270.37 to 278.55.
• A.J. Burnett | New York Yankees | -2.6% - Is this the beginning of a lot of fantasy GM’s fearing that Burnett’s injury woes are not behind him? His ADP dropped to a 9th round 99.55 from 96.99.
• Brad Ziegler | Oakland Athletics | -1.9% - Ziegler and Devine are both in the running to become the A’s new closer. This makes it look like people are starting to think that Devine is in the drivers seat. Zieglers ADP dropped to 219.16 from 217.62 while Joey Devine has an ADP of 191.02.

Other notables: Prince Fiedler (-3.1%), Rafael Furcal (-2.6%), Ian Kinsler (-2.5%) and Matt Cain (-1.2%)

I just couldn’t contain all this closer goodness to the top 10 anymore. So, now the list is comprised of 15 closers. The top two are the same as in my last top fantasy closers list, and seven of the ten from the first fantasy baseball closer list are still around.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera is still the stud of this group. I guess he’s not getting older, he’s getting better. Or maybe he just hasn’t faced the Red Sox enough to get banged around yet. Rivera has ten saves and a 12:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 15.0 innings pitched. His ERA is perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP is pretty darned close at 0.40.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan has 12 saves this season in 14.0 innings of work. He’s sporting a 14:3 strikeout to walk ratio and has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He gave up two earned runs and three hits in his last outing (while still recording the save) or his ERA and WHIP would be even better.
3. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge is nine for nine in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 17 innings, hence his 0.00 ERA. He also has a 0.82 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning, with 18 strikeouts and 6 walks.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon has blown two saves in his last three attempts and hasn’t looked sharp for about a week now (although Julio Lugo should be given the blown save on May 7th, not Paps). He’s got 2 wins, 2 losses and 11 saves this season and Papelbon’s ERA has risen almost a whole point in the last week to 2.41. His WHIP is still below one at 0.91 and he still has a great strikeout to walk ratio of 11.50 (23:2).
5. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez leads the majors in saves with 15 in 2008. But, that’s where his dominance stops. He’s got a weak 1.22 strikeout to walk ratio (11:9), and nowhere close to the 1.30 strikeouts per inning we’re used to seeing from him (2008 total is 0.72 K’s per inning). His ERA is 2.93 and his WHIP is 1.30.
6. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon has seemingly forgotten about his two blown saves in early April. He’s been a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities since April 9th, and has a total of 10 saves for the year. In 16 innings of work he’s struck out 12 and only walked 2. His ERA is 2.25 and his WHIP is 1.00.
7. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - Soria is certainly pitching well as he hasn’t given up an earned run all season. Heck, he’s only given up four hits in his 14.1 innings of work. Soria has eight saves and 16 strikeouts to only one walk so far. To go along with his perfect 0.00 ERA he has a 0.35 WHIP. Soria would be much higher on this list if the Royals played well enough to allow him more saves.
8. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner is in the same boat as Soria. His numbers are dominant, but he isn’t getting a great number of saves. He only has seven saves, but he’s sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. He also has struck out 16 batters in 14.2 innings and only walked three.
9. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has been pretty solid this season going nine for ten in save opportunities. His only blown save is also the only appearance in which he’s given up any runs (he also gave up 4 of his 6 hits for the season in that one bad outing). In 14 innings of work, Percival has 13 strikeouts and only one walk. His ERA is 1.93 and he has a very nice 0.50 WHIP.
10. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps is a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities and has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (only 10 in 16.2 innings), Capps has been the model of consistency, only blowing two saves since taking over the closers role in June of last season.
11. Jon Rauch | Washington Nationals - Rauch has recorded four saves since being promoted to the closers position when Chad Cordero went to the DL. Rauch has seven total saves for the year and 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work. His ERA is 2.95 and his WHIP is 1.04.
12. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants - Wilson is tied for 4th in the majors with 11 saves. He’s also striking out more than one batter per inning (17 K’s in 16.0 innings) but his 3.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP drop him down to 12th on this list.
13. Huston Street | Oakland A’s - Street is nine for eleven in save opportunities this season, and a good portion of his 3.86 ERA came from one bad outing to start the season against the Red Sox. He’s got a 3.60 strikeout to walk ratio (18:5) and more strikeouts (18) than innings pitched (16.1).
14. George Sherrill | Baltimore Orioles - It’s tough for me to place a guy who’s 2nd in MLB in saves down at #14 on the closers list, but Sherrill has some problems to go along with his 13 saves. He’s striking out less than a batter per inning (13 K’s in 16.1 innings), but more importantly he’s walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings of work. His ERA is also high at 4.41 and his WHIP is 1.29.
15. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins - Gregg has seven saves this season to go along with three wins and two losses. While his 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP aren’t terrible, he’s got some problems with 12 strikeouts and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. And it’s not like Gregg had one bad game and that’s why his numbers are high. He has given up, at least, one run in six of the eighteen times he’s taken the mound this season.

Here’s the second installment of my fantasy baseball top 10 closers list.  There are a few new faces as only five closers from our first top 10 closers list made it to the second.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera has eight saves in eight save opportunities. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.36. In his 11.0 innings of work he has 11 strikeouts and zero walks. These numbers are more dominant than any other closer in the game right now.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan also has eight saves in eight opportunities. His ERA and WHIP are identical at 0.90 and he’s worked 10.0 innings of relief. He has 10 strikeouts and only one walk.
3. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - You may be asking what a guy with only six saves is doing at #3 on this list. Well, this list is for fantasy value, not just save totals, and Soria is pretty valuable. He has a 13:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of work. And he also has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.36 WHIP.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Paps is the first closer with an ERA above 1.00. His is 2.25, but that was mostly a result of one bad outing against the Yankees. He has eight saves, but what is really impressive (and the reason he’s 4th on this list and not 7th or 8th) is his 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings pitched.
5. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner has six saves and a 0.00 ERA with a 0.42 WHIP. He did just blow a save last night but his ERA didn’t suffer due to a Jose Reyes throwing error. He has a 12:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings of work.
6. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has pitched in 9.0 innings and has recorded 5 saves. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.33. He has a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
7. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has six saves in 11.0 innings of work. He also has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is a little rough at 12:6, but none of those walks have hurt him yet. Don’t expect that to remain true if he keep up this K:BB pace.
8. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon hasn’t been the epitome of stability as he’s already blown two saves. But, his eight saves has him tied for third in MLB. His 2.77 ERA is a bit high, but his 0.85 WHIP and his 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio are keeping him grounded (and on this list).
9. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps has pitched in 11.2 innings in 2008 and has recorded 6 saves with a 8:2 strikeout to walk ratio. He has a 2.31 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.
10. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’s ERA is ballooned at 3.86 due to his only blown save against Cleveland. He also has a high WHIP (1.54) as he’s given up nine hits and nine walks in 11.2 innings. He is leading MLB with 11 saves, so it’s not all bad here. He typically strikes out a lot more batters than innings pitched, but that hasn’t been the case so far in 2008 with only 9 strikeouts. The only solid aspect of his game right now is his league leading save total. Most of his other stats are currently suspect.

The National League edged out the American League 5-3 in this week’s MVP awards. The state of Florida was nicely represented with two Rays and a Marlin on the list.

Catcher: This is the second week a reserve catcher has won this award. Wil Nieves (WAS) is filling in for Paul Lo Duca while he’s on the DL, and last week hit .500/.529/.687 with 5 runs, one home run, and 4 RBI. His days are numbered as Lo Duca should be back shortly.

First Base: Lance Berkman (HOU) had a monster week hitting .455/.517/1.136 with 7 runs scored, 4 home runs, 12 RBI and a stolen base. His performance was head and shoulders better than every other first baseman, maybe even every other player in MLB last week.

Second Base: He didn’t collect a walk or reach base on a error last week, but Brandon Phillips (CIN) hit 4 home runs, scored 5 times, had a stolen base and 8 RBI while averaging .321/.321/.857.

Shortstop: This was an interesting competition between Miguel Tejada and Hanley Ramirez, as Tejada had a better average and Ramirez had better power and speed numbers. I’m giving the MVP award to Hanley Ramirez (FLA). He only hit .273/.314/.606 but had 6 runs scored, 3 home runs, 4 RBI and 4 stolen bases.

Third Base: Who had week 4 in the Longoria for MVP pool? It didn’t take Evan Longoria (TB) long to make a fantasy baseball impact and win his first weekly MVP award. He batted .333/.435/.833 with 4 runs scored, 2 home runs, 6 RBI, and 2 stolen bases. Longoria narrowly beat out other 3B candidates Edwin Encarnacion and Garrett Atkins.

Outfield: This was a tough race to call too. I passed over Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford to give the award to Magglio Ordonez (DET). Ordonez averaged .400/.484/.840 with 5 runs scored, 3 home runs, and 10 RBI.

Starting Pitcher: Three pitchers did enough to win this award this week, but in the end James Shields (TB) edged out Edison Volquez and C.C. Sabathia to take top honors. Shields had two wins, enjoyed a 12:3 strikeout to walk ratio, and had an ERA of 1.12 with a WHIP of 0.69.

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Lyon (ARI) had four saves last week with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.40. He threw 5 innings and had 5 strikeouts and zero walks.