Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 5.

1. The set-up man to closer hand off (sorry for mixing sports vernacular) when working, is a finely tuned work of art and an incredibly valuable tool to a team’s bullpen. Last night, the tandems of Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg (Cubs) and Jose Arredondo and Brian Fuentes (Angels) took steps towards reestablishing that solid 8th and 9th inning knockout punch needed to finish games. These four ERA’s are still pretty high, but signs are leading towards a recovery.
2. Zack Greinke maintained his strangle-hold on the title of best pitcher in the majors right now. His complete game shutout of the White Sox last night lowered his ERA to 0.40. Did I mention he had ten strikeouts without a walk?
3. The good news is that he never lost consciousness. The bad news is that Rick Ankiel tripped on the warning track last night and face planted into the outfield wall. He spent the night in the hospital, but hopes to be released today.
4. The Blue Jays top pitching prospect Brett Cecil will start this afternoon and make his Major League debut against the Indians. He was a first-round selection in the 2007 draft and went 8-5 last season with a 2.88 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 118.2 innings.
5. There are five afternoon games today. Two start before 1:00 PM ET. Get your rosters set early.

It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.

• Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
• Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
• Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
• Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the  temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
• Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
• Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
• Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
• Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
• Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
• Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
• Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
• Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.

We just looked at the hitters, now it’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint; the pitcher edition. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | +50.6% - The Reds are asking the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, but talks are stalling as the Yanks want Homer Bailey in return. This is causing a frenzy of mock draft participants grabbing Bailey, just in case this trade comes to fruition. Bailey’s ADP has risen in the last week from 412.57 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Jason Isringhausen | Free Agent | +21.9% - Isringhausen is looking into signing with four teams. At each destination he’d have an opportunity to close. Are people desperate enough to draft a relief pitcher who isn’t currently on a team and who doesn’t have a closer job 100% locked up? Apparently the answer is, “Yes.”. Isringhausen’s ADP has risen from 339.98 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
3. Barry Zito | San Francisco Giants | +19.3% - Zito is living proof of the old baseball addage, “you can be a bad left-handed pitcher and still pitch it in the big leagues”. Seriously guys??? Zito was 10-17 last season with a 5.15 ERA and led the majors in walk rate. Why has he risen in the last week from a 23rd round ADP of 257.47 to an 18th round ADP of 215.74? Zito should be undrafted in mixed-leagues until he can assure you he won’t start the season 0-8 again. And by assure, I mean pitch his ass off!
4. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.4% - Fuentes made last weeks list at the #2 spot. This week he’s still climbing. People are really starting to dig on Fuentes in the closer role in LA. He moved from the 15th round (172.67 ADP) to the 12th round (141.72 ADP).
5. John Lannan | Washington Nationals | +17.8% - Lannan, the Nationals ace, is starting to get some love from the mock draft world. He’s up into the 23rd round at 272.89 ADP from 321.57.

Other notables: Fernando Rodney (+17.0%), Masahide Kobayashi (+15.8%), Pedro Martinez (+14.6%), Manny Delcarmen (+13.3%), Todd Wellemeyer (+11.3%), Jeff Samardzija (+10.5%), and Tommy Hanson (+10.1%).

I just listed the top five hitters by rising ADP’s last week, now let’s move on the the pitchers.

1. Edwin Jackson | Detroit Tigers | +35.7 - I guess the Tigers aren’t the only folks that think that Jackson’s 24% decrease in ERA last season makes him a real deal sleeper. Mock drafters took Jackson in the 23rd round last week (260.57 ADP) instead of at an ADP of 353.63.
2. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.9% - With the move to Los Angeles Fuentes is moving into top 15 closer status at Mock Draft Central. He was a 15th round pick (174.56 ADP) last week but now is a 13th round pick at 146.77.
3. Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates | +17.6% - Snell was supposed to be a high strikeout sleeper in ‘08, but his strikeout total dropped by 24% and his ERA ballooned. He says he’s working out, eating right and feeling better, and apparently drafters are believing him. I’m not ready to drink the Snell rebound Kool-Aid, yet. He’s being taken at pick #263.67 (23rd round) now instead of #310.20 last week.
4. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves | +15.2% - Soriano is hurt and unsure of an opening day return. Not to mention he’s #2 on the bullpen depth chart to Mike Gonzalez. But he’s climbing the charts at MDC; up from 252.30 (21st round) to 219.05(19th round).
5. Chad Cordero | Free Agent | +7.0% - Lot’s of rumors about Cordero and where he’ll land. But the biggest question is can he return and be effective from shoulder surgery. He’s up from 269.87 (23rd round) to 252.30 (21st round) as some of you believe the answer is yes.

The Los Angeles Angels just signed Brian Fuentes to a two year, $17.5 million deal which fills their need for a closer.

Last season in Colorado, the 33-year-old lefty saved 30 games with a 2.73 ERA. In 62.2 Fuentes struck out 82 and walked only 22.

Fuentes got better as the season rolled on in 2008. He had a 3.41 ERA in the first half and a 1.84 ERA in the second half. He also increased his strikeout rate fanning 45 in 25.2 second half innings in relation to 37 strikeouts in 37 innings in the first half.

In addition to Fuentes getting better in the second half, he also showed marked improvements from 2007 in some key areas. He increased his K/9 from 8.22 to 11.78 while reducing his BB/9 from 3.38 to 3.16. Most of the time those kinds of swings are recipes for success for a relief pitcher. Fuentes also dropped his HR/9 from 0.88 to 0.43. These improvements all came while his hit rate took a beating. In 2007 Fuentes was a bit lucky with a 25.5% hit rate. In 2008 his hit rate climbed into the unlucky level of 31.7%. If he gets a normalization back toward his career mark of 29.8%, you could see Fuentes’ numbers get better in 2009.

Fuentes’ stock certainly rose with this announcement in the fantasy world. He’ll see more opportunities to earn saves pitching for the Angels. And, if his stats keep trending in positive directions, you could see him break into the top 10 area of the closers ranking list.