Crooked Pitch

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten second basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - You probably spent the first half of the season asking yourself if Pedroia could really be this good. Now we’re all asking if Pedroia could really be the American League MVP. The answer is yes to both questions. 118 runs | 17 HR | 83 RBI | 20 SB | .326
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - With 18 home runs before June, there seemed to be no slowing Utley down. He did come back down to earth as injuries took their toll by season’s end. 113 runs | 33 HR | 104 RBI | 14 SB | .292
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler not gone down August with a season ending injury, amazing things could have happened. 102 runs | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 26 SB | .319
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - Roberts may want out of Baltimore and onto a winning team, but any fantasy roster that he’s on is better for having him. His stolen base totals drive his fantasy value, but he produces in many more ways. 107 runs | 9 HR | 57 RBI | 40 SB | .296
5. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins - Uggla struck out 171 times but still hit .260. It’s his power, however, that makes him valuable to the fantasy GM. 97 runs | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | .260
6. Mark DeRosa, Chicago Cubs - DeRosa does just about everything well. And his multi-position eligibility makes him a rock star. 103 runs | 21 HR | 87 RBI | 6 SB | .285
7. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Didn’t make a lot of noise, but put up a lot of fantasy numbers. 80 runs | 17 HR | 89 RBI | 6 SB | .297
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - A broken finger cost him about 50 at-bats. He still showed an awesome speed/power duality before he went down. 80 runs | 21 HR | 78 RBI | 23 SB | .261
9. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox - Probably won’t top Evan Longoria for American League Rookie of the Year honors, but his 2008 campaign was fantastic none the less. Give him a full season of at-bats and you’d have seen him higher on this list. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
10. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves - Double digit home runs and stolen bases make Johnson a desirable fantasy option. 86 runs | 12 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .287

Below you’ll find the pre-season rankings for the second base position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles
3. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees
4. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers
5. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox
6. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels
7. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers
8. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics
10. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians
11. Jose Lopez | Seattle Mariners
12. Danny Richar | Chicago White Sox
13. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins
14. Mark Grudzialanek | Kansas City Royals
15. Macier Izturis | Los Angeles Angels
16. Brendan Harris | Minnesota Twins

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds
2. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins
4. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves
5. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers
6. Orlando Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Jeff Kent | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Mark DeRosa | Chicago Cubs
10. Luis Castillo | New York Mets
11. Felipe Lopez | Washington Nationals
12. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros
13. Ray Durham | San Francisco Giants
14. Tadihito Iguchi | San Diego Padres
15. Ronnie Belliard | Washington Nationals
16. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Mark Loretta | Houston Astros
18. Ruben Gotay | New York Mets
19. Kevin Fransden | San Francisco Giants