Crooked Pitch

It’s time to begin the ranking of outfielders for the 2009 season. Today, let’s look at the top ten.

1. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians - Dude became a 30/30 guy last season after three seasons of posting 20/20 numbers. And get this, he’s only 26-years old. Triple digit runs scored and the possibility of approaching triple digit RBI make it easy to forget that Sizemore doesn’t have the best batting average.
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers - Anyone who passed on Braun before the ‘08 season worried about a sophomore slump came away disappointed. He scored more runs, hit more home runs and increased his RBI output. Even without third base eligibilty any more, he’s still one of the picks of the litter.
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets - At 31-years old people keep telling me that Delgado’s value should plummet soon. It hasn’t happened. He’s a 20/20 guy with triple digit RBI and run totals and nothing less should be expected in ‘09.
4. Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - Maybe in the ‘09 All-Star game Hamilton won’t use up all his second half home runs in the derby. Just about 2/3 of his homers came in the first half in ‘08. He posted triple digit RBI and almost hit triple digits in runs scored. His nine stolen bases are gravy. More power could show up in ‘09.
5. Manny Ramirez | Free Agent - What Manny did in the seconld half was sick last year. He can’t keep that pace up for an entire season, but a batting average above .300 with 25+ home runs and triple digit RBI and run totals should be the new definition of “Manny being Manny”.
6. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros - Lee lost close to 200 at-bats due to a shattered pinky in ‘08. He still hit 28 home runs and drove in 100. With the pinky healed expect Lee to easily lock down a line something like .300/30/100/100/10.
7. Alfonso Soriano | Chicago Cubs - Unfortunately, Soriano has been trending negatively in his playing time due to injuries. If he can solve that problem in ‘09 he could get back to his studly 30/30 like numbers.
8. Jason Bay | Boston Red Sox - Bay’s 2008 performance went a long way in showing us that his poor showing in 2007 was an outlier. Give him a full season hitting in that stacked Red Sox lineup and you’ll see better things in ‘09 then you saw in ‘08.
9. Matt Holliday | Oakland Athletics - The new team name on his uniform is the reason why Holliday is in the bottom half of this top ten list and not near the top. The move to Oakland isn’t going to turn him into a Louse, but his offensive output can’t match his days in Colorado, can it?
10. Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox - A wrist injury kept Quentin from reaching 40 home runs last season. In 480 at-bats he still drove in 100 and scored 96 runs. In ‘09 watch for Quentin to finish the breakout he started in 2008.

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten outfielders for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers - Manny did it all in 2008. He alienated teammates and Red Sox Nation. But, once he decided to get serious, he hit better than anyone else in baseball. 102 runs | 37 HR | 121 RBI | 3 SB | .332
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - Is it possible for your home run total to go down at Coors Field? I’m nit picking here since he still hit 25 homers and was one of the most versatile hitters in fantasy baseball. 107 runs | 25 HR | 88 RBI | 28 SB | .321
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers - Had a much more powerful first half than second. But both halves of the season were pretty phenomenal. 98 runs | 32 HR | 130 RBI | 9 SB | .304
4. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - This is most likely the last seaosn you’ll see Berkman with outfield eligibility. Now he can dominate the first basemen for the rest of his career. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
5. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - A lot of St. Louis fans wondered out loud what Ludwick could do with a full season of at-bats. He tore the cover off of the ball. 104 runs | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 4 SB | .299
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets - His power is dipping which is understandable as you age. But, his stolen bases are on the rise (aren’t you supposed to slow down as you get older?). With all of these question marks, the only thig that is a certainty is that Beltran is an all around fantasy stud. 116 runs | 27 HR | 112 RBI | 25 SB | .284
7. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - No sophomore slump for Braun. He actually bested his home run total and RBI total from 2007. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
8. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox - Another solid season for Bay who may end up really liking it in Boston. It’s starting to look like 2007 was an anomaly. 111 runs | 31 HR | 101 RBI | 10 SB | .286
9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - This guy does everything extremely well. if his batting average would have been 10-15 points higher he would have been in the top three on this list. 101 runs | 33 HR | 90 RBI | 38 SB | .268
10. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox - 36 dingers and 100 RBI in only 480 at-bats. Imagine what it could have been like if he’d gotten 550+ at-bats… 96 runs | 36 HR | 100 RBI | 7 SB | .287

Below are the pre-season rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Carl Crawford | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians
3. Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners
4. Vladimir Guerrero | Los Angeles Angels
5. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
6. Alex Rios | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Curtis Granderson | Detroit Tigers
8. Magglio Ordonez | Detroit Tigers
9. Manny Ramirez | Boston Red Sox
10. Bobby Abreu | New York Yankees
11. Nick Markakis | Baltimore Orioles
12. Torii Hunter | Los Angeles Angels
13. Vernon Wells | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Hideki Matsui | New York Yankees
15. Nick Swisher | Chicago White Sox
16. Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox
17. Delmon Young | Minnesota Twins
18. Johnny Damon | New York Yankees
19. Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston Red Sox
20. Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners
21. Jose Guillen | Kansas City Royals
22. Melky Cabrera | New York Yankees
23. Gary Matthews Jr. | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Matt Holliday | Colorado Rockies
2. Alfonso Soriano| Chicago Cubs
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets
4. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros
5. Adam Dunn | Cincinnati Reds
6. Eric Byrnes | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Hunter Pence | Houston Astros
9. Cory Hart | Milwaukee Brewers
10. Brad Hawpe | Colorado Rockies
11. Andruw Jones | Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Jason Bay | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Shane Victorino | Philadelphia Phillies
14. Juan Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Jeff Francoeur | Atlanta Braves
16. Ken Griffey Jr. | Cincinnati Reds
17. Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Pat Burrell | Philadelphia Phillies
19. Aaron Rowand| San Francisco Giants
20. Jeremy Hermida | Florida Marlins
21. Austin Kearns | Washington Nationals
22. Moises Alou | New York Mets