Crooked Pitch

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today. We have also added some players reviews, injury reviews, Pitcher F/X and prospect reviews at Daily Roto Pickups, so check it out.

C – Chris Coste- Another season and the Phillies have trouble with a starting catcher hitting. Now they are counting on career minor leaguer Chris Coste who has actually played quite well as a fill in for the Phillies the past 2 seasons. If he continues to bat well he could gain enough at bats to be of use in 2 catcher leagues. I would not drop anything for him, but an injury move to DL that opens a spot could be a good move.

He is currently owned in 11% of leagues.

CI – Chad Tracy - Seems like so long ago when Tracy was ready to top 30 homers in 2006 after a great year in 2005. Although he had more at bats he dropped back to 20 homers and then has not been healthy since. He appears healthy now and he seems to have his power swing with 2 homers so far. For now with injuries he has full time at bats and is worth using. He also has eligibility at 1B, 3B and will have OF very soon.

He is only owned in 14% of CBS leagues.

MI – Ian Stewart - In my keeper league I had Chase Utley from 2004-2007 once he got the full time job. I think in three years I would be holding Stewart the same way if he keeps 2B eligibility. The problem here is that Stewart can’t keep playing there year round as his defense is not good enough. I believe he is now worth a pickup in all leagues as a 2B for this year and keeper leagues should hope he gets those 20 games for next year.

He is only owned in 33% of CBS leagues.

OF – Andre Ethier - What a mess the dodgers are in the OF. They have signed two of the worst OF’s the past 2 years and continue to play them over better talent. Ethier has had 2 very good years and then gets to split time with Pierre. Thankfully Jones has been put on the DL and Ethier is starting. He is a good fill in or 4th or 5th OF.

He is only owned in 48% of CBS leagues.

SP – Kevin Slowey - He wasn’t quiet as dominant last night as his last start, but I still think he will be a positive asset to your team. He has very good control and pitches more to contact. His stats before last night were a bit ahead of what you should expect, but he is worth owning in mixed leagues.

He is owned in 51% of leagues.

RP – Dan Wheeler - Another week another closer change. This is why spending high picks on more than one closer in most leagues is not a good strategy. If he is available you should pick him up. Also this is good timing if you had Acosta or Soriano. I wouldn’t drop Soriano yet as Smoltz is changing his arm angle to deal with pain. That is never good, so bench him if you can and get Wheeler.

They are only owned in 36% as of this morning on CBS.