Crooked Pitch

One of the Phillies top hitting prospects is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League. Shortstop Jason Donald, through 18 games, is batting .459/.522/.803 with eight doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He’s leading the AFL in doubles, is fourth in base hits, third in batting average, and sixth in runs scored. Donald is following up a very successful 2008 season in Double-A Reading where he batted .307/.391/.497 with 19 doubles and 14 home runs. But, is this enough to become a blip on your fantasy radar?

Another impressive note regarding Donald’s Double-A season is the fact that he improved upon his batting average from 2007, his RBI total, and his home run total. To see a 23-year-old (he’s actually 24 now) kid do this says a lot about his willingness to learn and his ability to grow as a hitter.

Now, let’s look at some of the negative aspects keeping Donald from reaching any level of fantasy baseball production.

First off, he strikes out more than a guy with a .300-plus batting average should. At Double-A he struck out 86 times in 362 at-bats. That shakes out to a 76.2% contact rate, which not too many guys who hit .307 have. In the AFL he’s struck out 12 times in 61 at-bats. At least that brings his contact rate up to 80.3%, but it’s still not ideal for a guy who’s most likely gonna make the big club because of his batting average and not his power potential.

Another big issue keeping Donald out of Philadelphia is the position he plays. At shortstop, he’s not getting calle dup any time soon to displace Jimmy Rollins from his throne. And a switch over to the other middle infield spot is laughable due to Chase Utley. About the quickest way that I can see Donald making the Phillies 25-man roster is as a replacement to Pedro Feliz at third base. Folks have hinted at a possible switch for Donald in the past, but it hasn’t happened yet. And Feliz isn’t giving up his position to Donald just yet. You could ask for a higher batting average out of Feliz, but his glove and power potential are a bit better than Donald’s at this point. Donald did have 14 home runs and 19 doubles in Double-A in 2008. So, the power potential is there, but it hasn’t surfaced as it has in Feliz, yet.

If Donald keeps hitting like this for the duration of the AFL and he shows up at Spring Training still lighting it up, you may see talk of him making the club and joining the backup or utility infield committee of Iguchi, Dobbs, Cervenak, and Harman. But that’s not terribly likely. What’s more liekly is that the Phillies will want to get Donald as many at-bats as possible in the minors to aid in his development.

Down the road, Donald could become relevant in fantasy baseball. It, most likely, won’t be in the first half of 2009. But, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t keep an eye on him for the next little while. Those of you in fantasy leagues that use players from the minors should pay a little extra attention as he has deep keeper status.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten second basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - You probably spent the first half of the season asking yourself if Pedroia could really be this good. Now we’re all asking if Pedroia could really be the American League MVP. The answer is yes to both questions. 118 runs | 17 HR | 83 RBI | 20 SB | .326
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - With 18 home runs before June, there seemed to be no slowing Utley down. He did come back down to earth as injuries took their toll by season’s end. 113 runs | 33 HR | 104 RBI | 14 SB | .292
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler not gone down August with a season ending injury, amazing things could have happened. 102 runs | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 26 SB | .319
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - Roberts may want out of Baltimore and onto a winning team, but any fantasy roster that he’s on is better for having him. His stolen base totals drive his fantasy value, but he produces in many more ways. 107 runs | 9 HR | 57 RBI | 40 SB | .296
5. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins - Uggla struck out 171 times but still hit .260. It’s his power, however, that makes him valuable to the fantasy GM. 97 runs | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | .260
6. Mark DeRosa, Chicago Cubs - DeRosa does just about everything well. And his multi-position eligibility makes him a rock star. 103 runs | 21 HR | 87 RBI | 6 SB | .285
7. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Didn’t make a lot of noise, but put up a lot of fantasy numbers. 80 runs | 17 HR | 89 RBI | 6 SB | .297
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - A broken finger cost him about 50 at-bats. He still showed an awesome speed/power duality before he went down. 80 runs | 21 HR | 78 RBI | 23 SB | .261
9. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox - Probably won’t top Evan Longoria for American League Rookie of the Year honors, but his 2008 campaign was fantastic none the less. Give him a full season of at-bats and you’d have seen him higher on this list. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
10. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves - Double digit home runs and stolen bases make Johnson a desirable fantasy option. 86 runs | 12 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .287

Below you’ll find the pre-season rankings for the second base position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles
3. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees
4. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers
5. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox
6. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels
7. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers
8. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics
10. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians
11. Jose Lopez | Seattle Mariners
12. Danny Richar | Chicago White Sox
13. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins
14. Mark Grudzialanek | Kansas City Royals
15. Macier Izturis | Los Angeles Angels
16. Brendan Harris | Minnesota Twins

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds
2. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins
4. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves
5. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers
6. Orlando Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Jeff Kent | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Mark DeRosa | Chicago Cubs
10. Luis Castillo | New York Mets
11. Felipe Lopez | Washington Nationals
12. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros
13. Ray Durham | San Francisco Giants
14. Tadihito Iguchi | San Diego Padres
15. Ronnie Belliard | Washington Nationals
16. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Mark Loretta | Houston Astros
18. Ruben Gotay | New York Mets
19. Kevin Fransden | San Francisco Giants

If not for one Boston pitcher, the National League would have swept these fantasy baseball MVP awards this week. Nice job NL!

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto batted .391/.481/.870 while scoring six times. He also hit two home runs with 9 RBI. Russell Martin also had a good week going .304/.448/.435 with six runs, a home run, four RBI and a stolen base, but his performance was clearly a second place performance.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez narrowly edged out Lance Berkman (who won in week 4) for this week’s prize scoring seven times and knocking in six RBI with four home runs. Gonzalez averaged .385/.385/.885 last week.

Second Base: Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - Utley becomes the first three time winner of this award as scored five times, knocked three home runs, had five RBI, and even stole a base. His slash stats last week were .348/.423./783. He narrowly edged out Placido Polanco while Dan Uggla also garnered consideration.

Third Base: Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates - Bautista hit three home runs last week while scoring six times and driving in seven runs. He averaged .333/.370/.750 on the road to win this award .

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal finished just ahead of Jose Reyes for this award largely on his 11 runs scored. He also hit a home run, drove in four and stole two bases. His slash stats were .393/.452/.571.

Outfield: Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers - Kemp was the clear-cut winner this week and the second straight Dodger on the list this week. Kemp hit .407/.433/.556 with seven runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves - It usually takes a two-start pitcher to win this award, but Hudson was special last Friday night (and I was lucky enough to see this in person). Hudson faced off against Edison Volquez in a fantastic pitchers duel. Hudson pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 and walking zero.

Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon had only one save last week, but he also got two wins. In 4.1 innings of work he struck out three, walked zero, and gave up two hits on his way to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.46 WHIP.

Pretty even match between the American League and the National League this week with the MVP awards. There are even a few surprises mixed in. Enjoy!

Catcher: This was a tough call as no catcher really strutted his stuff ahead of everyone else. So, I’m going to give the award to someone, who most likely, is a free agent in your league, Chad Moeller (NYY). Moeller hit .350/.435/.600 with 5 runs scored, a home run, and 3 RBI as he continued filling in for Jorge Posada.

First Base: Conor Jackson (ARI) showed superb stuff this week hitting .480/.519/1.080. He also scored 10 times, hit 3 home runs, knocked in 10 and even stole a base.

Second Base: Chase Utley (PHI) is a man among boys. This is his 2nd MVP award and maybe his best week yet. he hit .391/.462/.1.087 with 6 runs scored, 5 home runs, and 8 RBI.

Shortstop: This was a close race between Jose Reyes, Ryan Theriot, Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter. But I’m giving the award to Ryan Theriot (CHC) who hit .481/.533/.815 with 9 runs scored, a home run, 4 RBI and a stolen base.

Third Base: Here’s another close race between Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and David Wright. I was prepared to give the award to Cabrera until I saw that his on-base percentage was lower than his batting average. That just didn’t sit well with me, so Chipper Jones (ATL) wins the week 3 fantasy baseball MVP award. He hit .565/.600/1.174 with 6 runs scored, 4 home runs, and 7 RBI.

Outfield: “Manny being Manny” is quickly turning into the definition of tearing the cover off of the ball. Manny Ramirez (BOS) hit .417/.517/.958 with 7 runs scored, 4 home runs, and 8 RBI and he’s really keeping the Red Sox alive while Papi finds his swing.

Starting Pitcher: John Danks (CHW) only gave up 8 hits in 14.2 innings of work this past week. He won both starts and had an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.68 while dazzling with a 6.00 strikeout to walk ratio (12:2). He’s also available in some leagues, so give him a look in very deep mixed leagues and AL only’s.

Relief Pitcher: Billy Wagner (NYM) recorded three saves this past week and posted a 0.00 ERA and WHIP. He struck out three batters while walking none.