Crooked Pitch

Now that it’s round thirteen, you’re going to start seeing owners fill out teams needs and start really jumping on positional runs. Position scarcity may also start driving the decisions some of these guys make.

Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10, round 11 and round 12.

• Round 13 : Pick 1(145) - @crookedpitch - Pat Burrell - To grab a 30+ home run hitter at this stage in the draft seems very good to me. He fits nicely into my power laden lineup. I’m glad that our league is set up roto-style versus head-to-head as Burrell’s swings from hot to cold could derail a H2H team. But, in roto, 30 homers is 30 homers. I couldn’t care less if they al come in one month.
• Round 13 : Pick 2(146) - @Angels2717 - Edwin Encarnacion - In this draft, I waited awhile to take a 3B and when your this deeo into a draft, its hard to get a good one. I believe Encarnacion has the ability to post some solid stats for a thirteen-rounder; he’s streaky but when he’s on, he’s good. Hopefully this pick won’t be as bad as it looks so far.
• Round 13 : Pick 3(147) - @TheRoundtable - Chien-Ming Wang - One of the forgotten souls because of his injury last year. Wang didn’t forget how to pitch, he just couldn’t help the Yankees out at all. He won 19 games in 2006 and 2007. I’m betting he’s back and much closer to that this season than he is anything else. Given where we are in the draft, I like the potential for grabbing a Cy Young-candidate this late in the game.
• Round 13 : Pick 4(148) - @fakebaseball - Alex Gordon - In need of a third baseman and with few choices left, I took Alex Gordon in the 13th round. I probably reached a round early, but at this point in the draft, I’d rather go with upside potential than confirmed mediocrity. Sure, Gordon hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still young, and made incremental improvements last year that gives hope he’ll continue to develop. My tempered expectations are for .270/22 HR/12 SB, but as we’ve seen before with “post-hype” young players, there’s the possibility for more.
• Round 13 : Pick 5(149) - @jefeboy - Scott Baker - A sleeper SP, to some extent I guess. He was very good in 2008 and could improve in 2009. Another upside pick.
• Round 13 : Pick 6(150) - @xxldaddyo - James Loney - I had my eye on Alex Gordon to fill one of my CI spots and was hopeful that I would be able to snag him in this round, but @fakebaseball foiled those plans for me just two picks before me. I knew that I needed to snag a Corner position here and so I went with James Loney at pick 150. Not a prodigious power hitter (figure 15HRs to be safe), he does hit for average and I think will hit .300 in 2009. He is only 24 years old and now has two solid years of Major League experience under his belt. Plus I’ve decided to petition the powers that be at Dodger Stadium to ply JD Southers “When youre only lone(l)y” if James goes into any prolonged slumps this year:
  

  When the world is ready to fall on your little shoulders
  And when you’re feeling lonely and small, you need somebody there to hold you
  You can call out my name when you’re only Lone(l)y
  Now don’t you ever be ashamed when you’re only Lone(l)y

• Round 13 : Pick 7(151) - @tommystv - Nick Swisher - Not sure what happened to him last year. I could see a power dropoff as steroids/hgh or lack there of deal. (everyone in Oakland past and present juice right?) But for this guy not to hit for a better AVG was a bit mind boggling. I think he was pressing and that he bounces back solid in ‘09. 1B/OF eligibility is always nice.
• Round 13 : Pick 8(152) - @sporer - Jonathan Broxton - I’m usually anti-saves or at least I don’t start speculating on them until much later, but when Broxton was there in the 13th, I went for it. With Saito completely out of the picture, it’s Broxton’s job as long as he’s successful and his skills thus far suggest that could be quite a while! He can be wild at times (3.5 walks per nine last year), but he has overpowering stuff that will win out in the long run (10.9 and 11.5 strikeouts per nine the past two seasons). He is ready to become an elite game-ender.
• Round 13 : Pick 9(153) - @therotofeed - Denard Span - At the time, I thought this was a cheap and somewhat painless way to add speed and runs without adding Willy Taveras.  Looking back, I think I could have waited, but SBs were flying off the board by this point.
• Round 13 : Pick 10(154) - @dowdyism - Adam Wainwright - I almost never target specific players heading into a draft, but Wainwright was one I was keeping my eyes on in the right position. His injury last year cut into his innings, but I think he will be on track for career numbers in 2009. Not an elite strikeout guy, but a solid contributor in the other categories.
• Round 13 : Pick 11(155) - @jasoncollette - Shin-Soo Chin - This guy had a terrific close of the season and has the skills to go 20/20/.290 in 2009.
• Round 13 : Pick 12(156) - @seniorcircuit - Francisco Cordero - I took Cordero as my first closer as he was one of the last remaining “stable” closers on the board. But as I have owned him in the past, he makes me nervous every time he gets handed the ball. Especially pitching at Great American Ballpark, there is no telling how his year could go.  Projecting him at 33 S/80 Ks/3.20 ERA/1.33 WHIP.

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

I recently broke from my usual fantasy draft strategy when I took three starting pitchers prior to the 12th round. I usually will only grab one stud starting pitcher, one stud closer, and then fill out the rest of my staff in the mid to late rounds.

That being said, I took a look at average draft position over at Mock Draft Central and I wanted to see what kind of pitching staff I could put together of players who are going in the 14th round or later (157 ADP or greater). Taking into consideration that I have already splurged on a stud ace and a closer to start filling in my nine pitcher staff, here are the other seven starting pitchers that I can get in the later rounds.

1. Matt Garza | Tampa Bay Rays | 167.52 ADP - Garza will win 11 games or so for the Rays and should have an ERA in the 3.70 to 3.90 range with 150+ strikeouts. That’s nice for the 14th round.
2. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 173.37 ADP - Taken in the 15th round Slowey is good for 12 wins or so and should approach 140 strikeouts. He’ll also help out with a sub 3.75 ERA.
3. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 182.82 ADP - Jurrjens is a 16th round pick and should win 11 games and strike out 125 or so. His ERA will stay below 4.00.
4. Justin Duchscherer | Oakland Athletics | 188.37 ADP - Also a 16th round pick, Duchscherer will really help your teams ERA as he’ll probably post under 3.25 in ‘09. He’ll also win 10 games and strike out 100.
5. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs | 190.10 ADP - 12 wins, a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA and 175 strikeouts would be great from Lilly in the 16th round.
6. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | 193.16 ADP - Wang should give you 12-13 wins and will keep his ERA well under 4.00. He’s not going to help with strikeouts much, but in the 17th round that’s ok.
7. John Maine | New York Mets | 229.22 ADP - Take Maine in the 20th round and you could get 10 wins, a 3.95 ERA or so, and 125 strikeouts.

If you’ll notice I had two criteria that needed to be met to land on this list. You must be projected to win 10+ games and your ERA needed to be under 4.00. If I had relaxed those standards a bit, look who else could have popped onto this list.

• Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies | 174.23 ADP - 10+ wins but his ERA will be above 4.00.
• Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 229.25 ADP - 10 wins, an ERA above 4.00, but 175+ strikeouts in the 20th round. Wow!
• Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 206.23 ADP - 12 wins and 125+ strikeouts.
• Ulbaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 229.77 ADP - Another 160+ strikeouts in the 20th round.
• Mark Buehrle | Chicago White Sox | 224.55 ADP - This 19th round guy should win 12 games and strike out 130.