Crooked Pitch

I’ve spent a good portion of the day thinking about the corner infield situation in Atlanta, now that the Braves have picked up Troy Glaus and announced that he would occupy first base — leaving Chipper Jones to play third base.

My first inclination was to scoff at this move by the Braves, hoping that the two aging infielders could combine to play 162 games in 2010. Once I’ve looked a little bit at their three-year trends, I’m not as worried now as I was at the beginning of the day.

It’s true that Glaus played in only 14 games last season. But, the two years prior he played in 115 games and 151 games, respectively. He also belted 20 home runs in 2007 and 27 in 2008. That’s power that the Braves could sorely use in 2010. All Glaus has to do is prove he can bounce back and play in 120-plus games.

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For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.

Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.

Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:

1. David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
2. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
4. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
6. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
7. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%).  That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
9. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
10. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
12. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
13. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
14. Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
15. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
16. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
17. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
19. Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
20. Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
21. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
22. Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
23. Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
24. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
25. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
26. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. At the Cubs Convention, Lou Pinella mentioned that Sean Marshall was the leading candidate for the fifth rotation spot. In seven starts, last season, Marshall was 1-4 with a 4.15 ERA and a 3.00 strikeout to walk ratio (36:12 K:BB). As a reliever his record was 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA and a 2.00 K:BB ratio (22:11). Hitters averaged .229 against him as a reliever and .255 against him as a starter.
2. The LoHud Yankees Blog gives some compelling reasons why the Yanks aren’t going to go after Ben Sheets and Jon Garland. For Sheets is a bum elbow. Garlands second half ERA (5.99), September ERA (7.18), and full-season 1.51 WHIP are detractors against him. Those are good enough reasons for your fantasy team to be equally uninterested in these guys.
3. If you haven’t seen Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove you need to go take a look right now. He started back on October 30, 2008 with the tag line “With 158 days until Opening Day I am ranking the top 158 players in fantasy baseball for the 2009 season. One player will be profiled everyday.”, and he’s putting out some incredible stuff. Today he profiled Chipper Jones who is #79.
4. The Fantasy Man is holding a fantasy t-shirt contest. There’s some good prizes involved. Go check it out.
   

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten third basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. David Wright, New York Mets - Wright is just a man among boys at the third base position. He does it all! 115 runs | 33 HR | 124 RBI | 15 SB | .302
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - It’s just nasty to consider 2008 an off year fantasy speaking for A-Rod. He’s still got first round talent. 104 runs | 35 HR | 103 RBI | 18 SB | .302
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - The elite fantasy third basemen used to only be A-Rod and Wright. Now, you can add Braun’s name to that list, if only he were going to play 3B anymore. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
4. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Huff might be too old to keep these numbers up going forward. But, 2008 was one heck of a ride. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Fourteen games was just enough to qualify at third base. His numbers are so good he’d be on any top ten list, no matter what position. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youkilis really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - His flirtation with .400 didn’t last as long as he’d hoped. But, he proved, once again, that he’s one of the best pure hitters in the game. 82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364
8. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs - Ramirez might not be hitting as many home runs as in years past, but his run production is still among the best. 97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289
9. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins - Cantu had a breakout year in 2008, and could get better. 92 runs | 29 HR | 95 RBI | 6 SB | .277
10. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles - Had a fantastic second half, but late season injuries and his age could hurt his draft status next season. 77 runs | 23 HR | 104 RBI | 3 SB | .285

Below is the pre-season ranking list, for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees
2. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox
4. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels
5. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners
6. Troy Glaus | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals
9. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers
10. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics
12. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey Blake | Cleveland Indians
14. Mike Lamb | Minnesota Twins
15. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays
16. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers
17. Joe Crede | Chicago White Sox
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. David Wright | New York Mets
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs
4. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves
6. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds
9. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ty Wigginton | Houston Astros
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies
13. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Jose Castillo | Florida Marlins

Catcher: Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - Geovany Soto and his 16 bombs got the All-Star starting job for the NL, while stud Brian McCann barely got to play even though his numbers merited the role of NL starter as well. Russell martin was sandwiched in between them for the game. And even though he has fewer home runs than both catchers, and a lower batting average than McCann, Martin is the first half, fantasy MVP due to his stolen base output. He swiped 10 bags and proved that cathcers can run a bit. His value is in the fact that he produces in every fantasy category, and with numbers like .294/.394/.436 with 49 runs, 10 home runs, 45 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, he produces well.

First Base: Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Ryan Howard may have 28 home runs, but he’s not even close to being as valuable of a fantasy first baseman as Berkman is. Berkman batted .347/.443/.653 with 79 runs, 22 home runs, 73 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in the first half of 2008. He may even have been the most valuable player in the entire fantasy baseball universe.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - In April, if you had told me that Chase Utley would have 25 home runs at the All-Star break and wouldn’t be the most valuable fantasy baseball second baseman, I would have called the insane asylum and booked your room. It’s true though. Kinsler topped Utley in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, and isn’t too far behind in the RBI category. Kinsler’s first half numbers were .337/.397/.548 with 84 runs scored, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, and 23 stolen bases.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - Ramirez sure has proven worthy of first round consideration at draft time this past off-season. He put up first half numbers of .311/.391/.566 with 80 runs scored, 23 home runs, 45 RBI, and 23 stolen bases and did that all without Miguel Cabrera hitting in the Marlins lineup with him. The only shortstop who can put up numbers like Hanley is playing third base for the Yankees.

Third Base: Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Although he’s no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, Jones still tearing up National League pitching and leading the league in batting average . Jones is batting .376/.472/.614 with 56 runs scored, 18 home runs, 51 RBI, and two stolen bases. As long as Jones stays healthy, expect monster production from him to continue in the second half.

Outfield: Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - You don’t even have to consider his 28 home run, first round home run derby spectacle to consider what Hamilton is doing this season as spectacular. He’s leading MLB in RBI as he approached 100 RBI in the first half alone, and is just an all around good story for baseball. His first half numbers were .310/.367/.552 with 60 runs scored, 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and even seven stolen bases. Wherever you drafted this guy, you absolutely stole him.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - Picking a first half MVP from the great performers from the starting pitching pool, was very difficult. Cliff Lee, Edison Volquez, Roy Halladay, and even Justin Duchscherer deserved consideration. Lincecum was chosen as he second in the league in strikeouts, tied for third in wins, and is an ERA stud pitching for what was supposed to be a terrible team. His first half line was 11-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 135 strikeouts and 47 walks in 129.2 innings of work.

Relief Pitcher: Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’ closest competitor in the saves category is 10 saves away, and his 38 saves leads MLB by a long shot. He also has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go along with those saves. In 42 innings pitched, Rodriguez struck out 41 and walked 26.

Pretty even match between the American League and the National League this week with the MVP awards. There are even a few surprises mixed in. Enjoy!

Catcher: This was a tough call as no catcher really strutted his stuff ahead of everyone else. So, I’m going to give the award to someone, who most likely, is a free agent in your league, Chad Moeller (NYY). Moeller hit .350/.435/.600 with 5 runs scored, a home run, and 3 RBI as he continued filling in for Jorge Posada.

First Base: Conor Jackson (ARI) showed superb stuff this week hitting .480/.519/1.080. He also scored 10 times, hit 3 home runs, knocked in 10 and even stole a base.

Second Base: Chase Utley (PHI) is a man among boys. This is his 2nd MVP award and maybe his best week yet. he hit .391/.462/.1.087 with 6 runs scored, 5 home runs, and 8 RBI.

Shortstop: This was a close race between Jose Reyes, Ryan Theriot, Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter. But I’m giving the award to Ryan Theriot (CHC) who hit .481/.533/.815 with 9 runs scored, a home run, 4 RBI and a stolen base.

Third Base: Here’s another close race between Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and David Wright. I was prepared to give the award to Cabrera until I saw that his on-base percentage was lower than his batting average. That just didn’t sit well with me, so Chipper Jones (ATL) wins the week 3 fantasy baseball MVP award. He hit .565/.600/1.174 with 6 runs scored, 4 home runs, and 7 RBI.

Outfield: “Manny being Manny” is quickly turning into the definition of tearing the cover off of the ball. Manny Ramirez (BOS) hit .417/.517/.958 with 7 runs scored, 4 home runs, and 8 RBI and he’s really keeping the Red Sox alive while Papi finds his swing.

Starting Pitcher: John Danks (CHW) only gave up 8 hits in 14.2 innings of work this past week. He won both starts and had an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.68 while dazzling with a 6.00 strikeout to walk ratio (12:2). He’s also available in some leagues, so give him a look in very deep mixed leagues and AL only’s.

Relief Pitcher: Billy Wagner (NYM) recorded three saves this past week and posted a 0.00 ERA and WHIP. He struck out three batters while walking none.